WNBA Playoff First Round Storylines
The Aces begin their quest for a three-peat while Diana Taurasi possibly says goodbye against a familiar foe
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The WNBA’s second 40-game regular season is complete, giving way to the third iteration of the current playoff format with higher seeds hosting the first two games of the best-of-3 first round. Underdogs seem to have their work cut out for them as the higher seed won all eight first-round series over the last two seasons including five sweeps.
#1 New York Liberty (32-8) vs #8 Atlanta Dream (15-25)
The Liberty finished with the best record in the league for the second time in team history (also 2015) with a franchise record-tying 32 wins in the regular season. Two-time WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart leads the way averaging 20.4 points per game, her fourth straight season averaging at least 20.
Stewart found her form after the Olympics following a slow start by her standards. She averaged 22.1 points per game and hit 40.0% from beyond the arc in 15 games after the break compared to 19.3 points while making just 22.9% from deep before it.
New York is looking for its second straight appearance in the semifinals after going without one from 2016-22.
Dream forward Tina Charles recorded her WNBA-record 194th career double-double while becoming the WNBA’s all-time leading rebounder and beating a team she played for from 2014-19 on their floor to clinch a playoff berth -- all mere minutes after being inducted into the New York City Basketball Hall of Fame in a pregame ceremony Thursday at Barclays Center.
Charles piled up 46 points and 34 rebounds during Atlanta’s three-game win streak to close the regular season, recording a double-double in each win. She’s scored in double-figures in 27 of her last 28 games dating to mid-June with 17 double-doubles.
The Liberty dropped their final two home games after winning 16 of their first 18 at Barclays Center this season. One of those losses was Thursday against the Dream with Stewart sitting after halftime and Sabrina Ionescu sitting for the final 11:56.
Atlanta’s win Thursday was its first in four meetings this season and was the first meeting between the teams since the end of June. The Liberty are 6-2 against the Dream over the last two seasons with five the six wins coming by at least 11 points.
This is the second postseason series between the Dream and Liberty. Atlanta swept the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals 2-0 with one game on each team’s floor.
#2 Minnesota Lynx (30-10) vs #7 Phoenix Mercury (19-21)
If this is it for the Mercury’s Diana Taurasi, she goes out against an opponent that will become her outright second-most frequent. Taurasi’s played 72 games against the Lynx so far, tied for second-most with the Sparks behind only 77 meetings with the Storm.
Taurasi’s the WNBA’s all-time leading scorer in both the regular season (10,646 points, 2,950 more than any other player) and playoffs (1,455 entering this series, 306 more than any other player).
DT averaged 22.5 points and 4.4 assists while scoring at least 12 in all 11 previous playoff games against the Lynx. Those 11 playoff meetings are also tied with the Sparks for her second-most behind 14 playoff games against the Storm.
Minnesota surged to the finish with 14 wins in 15 games before dropping the regular season finale with their playoff seed locked and top scorers Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride on the bench. The Lynx have their highest playoff seed since winning their most recent WNBA title in 2017 as the top seed.
With 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, Collier just completed only the fifth regular season in WNBA history averaging 20/9/3. She joins an illustrious club that includes Breanna Stewart (2023), Tina Charles (2016), Lisa Leslie (2006) and Chamique Holdsclaw (2003).
McBride’s having her best season since joining the Lynx in 2021. 15.0 points per game and 3.2 assists per game are both her most since 2018 while 40.7% from beyond the arc is her best mark since 2019.
The Lynx and Mercury are meeting in the postseason for the first time since the Lynx won a single elimination second-round game in the 2020 Wubble. It’s their first multi-game playoff series since meeting at the semifinal stage five times in a six-season span from 2011-16.
Minnesota is 11-2 in the playoffs against Phoenix and beat the Mercury on the path to the WNBA title in 2011, 2013 and 2015 as well as the path to a Finals loss in 2016.
The only Mercury wins in their playoff history against Minnesota came in the 2014 semifinals en route to their most recent WNBA title. They’re 0-10 against the Lynx in playoff years other than 2014.
Minnesota won three of four meetings this season with wins by 24 and 13 points at home and a win in the only game since the Olympics last month in Phoenix.
#3 Connecticut Sun (28-12) vs #6 Indiana Fever (20-20)
Connecticut earned the third seed for the second straight season. The Sun won one more game than last time, but went 10-6 after the Olympics including 3-6 against playoff teams after going into the break at 18-6.
The good news for the Sun is Alyssa Thomas found her shot last week. Thomas scored 7.3 points per game on 37.3% from the field in her first seven September games after leaving an August 31 game in Washington due to injury, but she hit 14-of-18 over the last two games of the regular season with her highest point totals of the month (18 and 13).
Fever guard Caitlin Clark makes her WNBA postseason debut after setting a boatload of records during her rookie season. Judging by her last 14 games and the last four NCAA Tournaments, Caitlin’s best may be yet to come.
Clark averaged 28.9 points per game in the NCAA Tournament at Iowa, half a point higher than her Iowa career average. That includes 30.9 points per game in the Tournament the last two seasons while leading Iowa to consecutive National Championship games.
She averaged 23.1 points and 8.9 assists per game while hitting 43.5% from the field and 37.0% from beyond the arc in 14 games after the Olympics, raising her shooting percentages significantly while also taking about four more shots a game.
This is the first postseason series between the Fever and Sun since Indiana won the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals 2-1 despite the Sun hosting Games 1 and 3. The Fever make their return to postseason play for the first time since 2016, snapping the WNBA’s longest drought and leaving only the Sparks with an active multiple-season playoff drought.
The Sun won three of four this season, but the Fever won the only game since June 10 by a four-point margin at home in late August. The Sun’s two home wins were decided by margins of 21 and 17 points.
Indiana’s won four of five postseason games against the Sun since dropping Game 1 of a 2007 first round series.
#4 Las Vegas Aces (27-13) vs #5 Seattle Storm (25-15)
The Aces are rolling as they embark on a quest for the first three-peat in major American professional sports since 2002 (Lakers) and the WNBA’s first since the Houston Comets won the first four titles from 1997-2000. Vegas comes into the playoffs with wins in MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson’s last eight games while winning nine of their last 10 overall.
Wilson missed her first game since 2019 earlier this month, a loss to the Liberty, due to an ankle injury before also sitting out of the regular season finale along with three other starters. She averaged 23.0 points in four games between the two she missed, but her numbers were down across the board.
Seattle’s in the playoffs for the eighth time in nine seasons after missing out last year for the first time since 2015. The Storm have either advanced or had a bye past the first round in their last five postseasons, looking to avoid going out at this stage for the first time since 2017.
Seattle won five of six to close out the regular season, but all five wins were against teams behind them in the standings and the loss was less than a week ago against the Aces. The Storm are 1-4 since the Olympics and 4-10 this season against the four teams ahead of them.
The Storm will be without top rebounder Ezi Magbegor (concussion) at the start of the series but should have top scorer Jewell Loyd (knee) back after she missed the last three games of the regular season. Loyd scored 28 points in her last game against the Aces in July.
The Storm and Aces are meeting in the postseason for the third time since the Aces franchise moved to Vegas, each having won one of the previous series.
Vegas beat Seattle 3-1 in the 2022 semifinals the last time they met in the playoffs, ending the Sue Bird/Breanna Stewart era in Seattle while the Aces went on to win their first WNBA title.
The Storm swept the Aces 3-0 in the 2020 WNBA Finals in the Wubble, winning the most recent of their four WNBA titles.
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