Is strong defense enough for the Sun?
It's a 3-point shooter's world but Connecticut is winning in a different way. Can it work against the fast-paced shooting teams?
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We have just about reached the midpoint of the WNBA season, which means that we no longer have to qualify every statement with “it’s still early” or “I know it’s a small sample size.” Now we can look closer at how some notable teams and players are truly stacking up by the numbers. So let’s have a look at one unique contending team and some interesting player trends….
Does defense win championships? Connecticut is going to find out
While most of the top teams in the WNBA like the Liberty, Lynx and Aces are playing fast-paced, 3-point heavy styles, the Connecticut Sun’s numbers have a more old-school look. They are last in the W in possessions per 40 minutes (i.e. the slowest pace) and rank 11th in both 3-point rate and percentage of points that come from 3-point shots. On the defensive side, the Sun are holding opponents to the second lowest 3-point percentage and second lowest points per play.
So far it’s working pretty well. They have a 14-4 record and the third best point differential behind only New York and Minnesota.
That got me thinking: Does playing hard-nosed ball work for teams in the playoffs?
Here’s how the last five champions compared to the Sun’s ranking in pace, 3-point rate and points per play:
Unsurprisingly the champs were mostly very good defensively, but it’s noticeable that none of the other teams were below the middle of the league in possessions per 40 minutes and most were at least mid-pack in 3-point rate. Last year’s runner up, the Liberty, were the No. 1 team in 3-point rate.
The Sun made the WNBA Finals in 2022 with a similarly low rate of 3-point shooting, but they had a faster pace and had a much higher overall scoring output, ranking third in the league in total points in 2022, whereas they are currently eighth in points per game.
None of this is to say that the Sun can’t get back to the Finals. It’s never fun for any opponent who goes up against Alyssa Thomas or DeWanna Bonner but with Ty Harris being the only player shooting above 15 minutes per game who is shooting over 30% from 3-point land, it’s worth wondering if they will be able to slow down the 3-point sniping teams enough to reach the Finals.
We don’t have a very big sample right now. They have only played three of their 17 games against the Lynx, Liberty and Aces (1-2 record). In fact, the Sun have played only five games versus .500 or better teams so far. Could that be influencing some of their defensive numbers? Certainly. There is a good test coming up as five of the Sun’s next six games are against .500 or better clubs.
Chennedy Carter’s fascinating stat line
The Chicago Sky’s season has gone about as expected following a very rebuild-y offseason that saw them trade Kahleah Copper to the Phoenix Mercury and draft twice in the first round. They have struggled offensively ranking 10th in points per game, but they have mostly fought admirably with only a -2.0 point differential. Amidst a rocky season something has caught my eye: Chennedy Carter is shooting the ball better than any other guard in the WNBA from inside the 3-point arc.
Carter, a former first-round pick who has bounced around following an unceremonious exit from Atlanta and did not play in the WNBA last year, is making 54.8% of her 2-point shots. That’s No. 1 in the league among guards who take at least 10 shots per game with the next best being Vegas’s Jackie Young at 51.6%. The most comparable 2-point shooters to Carter are MVPs Breanna Stewart and Nneka Ogwumike.
Is this just a strange small sample anomaly? Possibly. In her breakout rookie season Carter made 49.0% of her 2-point shots, which was only mid-pack among high volume shooters and she hasn’t reached that mark since. But her shot locations suggest that it can keep going if she continues to be aggressive. Prior to Sunday’s loss to the Lynx, Carter took 122 of her 172 shots within 10 feet of the rim (70.2%). She made 60.6% of those close attempts. Compare that to an elite slasher like Copper, who is getting a shade over 66% of her 2-point shots at the rim and making 53.9% within 10 feet.
The eye test would back up the idea that it can continue. Carter has explosiveness that is unmatched and a soft touch around the rim that we rarely see from players under 6-foot-1. It seems Sky coach Teresa Weatherspoon has encouraged her to take advantage of mismatches and be aggressive.
Here is the interesting part: Despite her scoring prowess (14.7 points per game), she is only averaging 23.0 minutes per game. Only within the last two weeks has Carter gotten opportunities to start and play 25 or more minutes regularly. Against the Lynx she was on the floor for a season-high 34 minutes, her first 30-plus minute game this year. In her starting stretch Carter has averaged 19.0 points per game and shot 54.7% overall.
It appears that taking a chance on a player whose reputation had taken a beating since her rookie year may pay off in spades. Carter is still yet to turn 26 years old and could still improve defensively (she averages 3.4 fouls per game, third most in the league) and with ball security. If she continues on this path, Carter could turn into a redemption story and become a significant part of the Sky’s rebuild. In order for that to happen she has to continue to prove that with more playing time her efficiency doesn’t regress.
Angel Reese’s rebounding is a reminder of Sylvia Fowles’ greatness
I’m not sure exactly how to process the start to Angel Reese’s career. Her double-double streak is making headlines and her win share total ranks 17th in the WNBA but she hasn’t been efficient in getting to those numbers.
After a 4-for-16 showing against the Lynx, Reese has the lowest effective field- goal percentage in the WNBA among players taking 10 shots per game or more (39.6%). She’s averaging 0.94 points per scoring attempt, also last among volume shooters. That’s extremely rough for someone who rarely shoots outside 10 feet.
Sometimes the percentages don’t even do justice to how many shots are actually being missed. Reese has tossed up 197 shots and only 78 have gone in. She’s shooting just 29.0% on shots between 3-10 feet.
Her defensive rebound percentage is strong, ranking fourth in the league among players with 25 minutes per game or more behind A’ja Wilson, Dearica Hamby and Tina Charles at 26.0%.
This is usually where somebody has to say that she’s just a rookie and she’ll probably fix all her problems. I’m not confident in that though. She was under 50% shooting in college last year despite almost all the shots coming at close range. The answer is more likely Reese learning to pass the ball out of pressure situations under the basket. The Lynx doubled her consistently and she struggled to find her teammates on kickouts. If she makes some adjustments, her length, defensive rebounding and ability to get steals down low can be a major problem for opponents. She needs to watch some Rebekkah Brunson tape.
Reese’s shooting actually wasn’t the main point that I intended to make in looking at her numbers. I was fiddling around with our wonderful Her Hoop Stats historical data and compared Reese’s 21.0% total rebound percentage to the last 10 seasons. Her current rate ranks fifth since 2015 with two Jonquel Jones seasons (2017, 2021), Sylvia Fowles’s 2018 and Teaira McCowan’s 2021 ahead of her.
Let’s take a moment to marvel at Syl specifically. She had four of the top 10 total rebounding seasons since 2015 and four of the top 20 effective field-goal percentage seasons. Fowles’s 2017 was the fourth best season in win shares since 2015 and she had six of the top 15 seasons in overall shooting percentage with the best coming in 2017 when she shot a preposterous 65.5%. If she was getting offensive rebounds, they weren’t off her own shots. Playing under the basket ain’t easy but Fowles certainly made it look that way.
Quick hits
– Earlier this week Indiana coach Christie Sides said that Caitlin Clark needs to shoot more. I’m perplexed. Clark has eight games with 13 shots or more and she’s only hit over 40% field- goal percentage in three of those games and the Fever are 3-5 in those games. The more that team distributes the shots the more difficult to guard they will be. They won 3-of-4 when Aliyah Boston shot 13-plus times and made over 50% of those shots and the only loss was by one point.
If there’s a critique, it’s that Clark is turning the ball over at a historic rate. How historic? Since the beginning of the WNBA, Clark and 2007 Chamique Holdsclaw are the only players ever to turn the ball over more than 5.0 times per game on average.
– Speaking of history, A’ja Wilson’s tough outing against Washington dropped her to 26.9 points per game. If she sustains that mark it will be the best scoring season in WNBA history. The only other player to top 25 points per game was Diana Taurasi in 2006.
It actually might be better if Wilson does not break that record. The Aces still won by 11 points because Tiffany Hayes scored 17 points off the bench. When Vegas is playing like a complete team and getting contributions from places other than their big three, they are incredibly tough to slow down.
– Every time I think I’ve got Phoenix figured out, they change my mind. On June 7 they played a great game against the Lynx and won on a last-second shot, then they played the Aces to overtime, then beat Seattle and New York. Then last week they got smashed by the Lynx 73-60 and blew a double-digit second-half lead to Indiana. It’s possible that playing at the fastest pace in the WNBA and having the second highest 3-point rate makes them streaky and capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone on a given night.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts! Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Great stuff ...
In the NBA, the received wisdom is that the game slows down in the postseason, and becomes more of a grind-it-out affair. The WNBA playoffs are much different, but each possession is more important, and so teams will tend to try to be more precise -- and thus take more time.
And it may also help the Sun that they are the only team playing the way they do. Other teams will have to adjust to their style while the Sun faces the usual style every night.
They should of course try their best but this is a lost season for them. They need a number 1 option and more shooting outside of Carrington and Bonner. They need to re-sign the Big 3 ( Jones, Bonner and AT) plus Carrington then maybe try to sign Mitchell from the Fever and possibly trade for Nylssa Smith(maybe a draft spot of the Sun's 1st for Fever 2nd) to go with Lacan.