Kelsey Mitchell is finally getting her shine
After years of putting up great scoring numbers, Mitchell is leading a competitive Fever team for the first time
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A few weeks into the WNBA season, I wrote about whether the Indiana Fever should trade Kelsey Mitchell.
The early returns with Mitchell and the Caitlin Clark-centric offense were so poor that it looked like they might not be able to coexist. Through the first 10 games of 2024, Mitchell shot just 36.5% from the field and averaged 14.5 points per game, which was down significantly from her previous three seasons.
But a few weeks into June, something clicked. From the time the Fever beat the Atlanta Dream on June 13 through Indiana’s victory over the Dallas Wings on Sunday that put them over .500, Mitchell has averaged 21.1 points per game on a remarkable 50.7% shooting percentage and 41.4% from 3-point land.
In her last six games, of which the Fever have won five, Mitchell has looked like the player who set records at Ohio State and was selected No. 2 overall with hopes they could build the franchise around her. In that stretch, she’s averaging 25.2 points per game with a 51.9% field-goal percentage. That’s MVP-caliber play.
The explanation doesn’t seem particularly complicated. After an extremely rocky start to the season that included a nightmare schedule and lots of pressure due to the spotlight on Clark, the Fever have settled down, figured out their lineups and learned how to play with each other.
Through those first 10 games to open her rookie year, Clark averaged 6.5 assists per game and was turning the ball over 5.6 times per contest. That assist-to-turnover ratio has since greatly improved as she has come to understand how to facilitate for her teammates. Since June 13, Clark is still turning the ball over too much at 5.5 per game but she jumped to a near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio by averaging 9.8 assists per night.
Suddenly Indiana went from a possible lottery team to a squad that could be scary in the playoffs. They have won seven of their last 10, including blowouts of the Storm and Sky.
It seemed inevitable with four top-two picks in the starting lineup that the Fever would become a scary club eventually, but for Mitchell in particular it is a long, long, long time coming.
After a slow start out of the gate, Mitchell took a big jump in 2020 and posted four straight years of 17 points or more per game and effective field-goal percentages above 50%. Yet she was constantly overlooked because her team’s highest win total since her arrival was 13 games (twice) and she never appeared in a playoff game.
Mitchell was shuffled between all sorts of different point guards through the years, from Erica Wheeler to Danielle Robinson to Lindsay Allen to Julie Allemand to Erica Wheeler again.
While she was becoming one of the W’s most efficient guards despite the lack of consistent point guard play, the franchise was wrought with roster turnover, missed draft picks and coaching changes.
Now they have continuity and talent and she’s seeing where her elite quickness and shot making skills can take her individually and with the team she battled with for so long.
Will she actually be in Indiana to see it through? Mitchell made comments to Indianapolis Star reporter Chloe Peterson that strongly suggested she is considering a possible future elsewhere.
“Those conversations are going to have to be had, and I’m gonna do what’s best for me,” Mitchell told Peterson. “It’s always going to be a business, so I’m excited to explore free agency. I’ve never been a free agent in my professional career, so I’m excited to see where it goes.”
Indiana can extend a core qualifying offer to Mitchell giving them exclusive negotiating rights in exchange for a one-year supermax salary. It’s hard to see them not doing that considering how the team has been playing with her and Clark clicking. However, the looming expansion draft does complicate things as it pertains to players who will be free agents.
There is also the player empowerment element. She could demand to be traded and threaten to play overseas if she really wants out. With the current situation finally working out much better in terms of results, it doesn’t seem likely that it would come to that.
Even though it’s unclear what will happen next with Mitchell and the Fever, the here and now is going well. She is getting the opportunity that she has long deserved, and if it continues we could see a deep playoff run that nobody ever could have seen coming in early June.
Or at least that’s my excuse for suggesting a possible trade a few months ago.
Sabally is making Dallas interesting
While I’m updating opinions from earlier in the year, the recent play of Dallas star Arike Ogunbowale since Satou Sabally returned has caught my eye. Before the All-Star break, I looked into Ogunbowale’s struggles with efficiency and how it had reached a breaking point.
With Sabally in the lineup over the last six games, Ogunbowale is shooting 43.8% with 6.0 assists per game and 2.2 turnovers.
Yes, it’s a tiny sample. But Sabally is averaging nearly 20 points per game and looks every bit like the force she was last year. In back-to-back wins over Vegas and Minnesota, Sabally combined to shoot 17-of-28 with 15 rebounds and 11 assists.
It stands to reason that if Ogunbowale is willing to play the role of playmaker for Sabally as much as scorer and she trades in the off-balance, early-shot-clock prayers for dimes to the gifted 6-foot-4 forward, the Wings are going to continue to put up huge point totals.
They have cleared 90 points in each of the last four games, which is necessary since they are still struggling defensively.
The Wings would need to make up a two game deficit on the Sky and Dream to make the playoffs and their final five games are a nightmare. They play New York twice, Seattle, Indiana and Las Vegas to close out the season.
Missing the postseason would be a good thing for the Wings to acquire another major piece. They haven’t seen much from their recent draft picks aside from a strong start by Maddy Siegrist before she broke her hand. But if Ogunbowale’s better shot selection and passing prowess continue into the future, that could ultimately be just as big of a win during a lost season as a high pick.
Additional thoughts
– A’ja Wilson took the Aces’ stumble out of the Olympic break personally, huh? After a 41-point, 17-rebound game, she’s up to 8.9 win shares, 2.1 ahead of the next best player (Breanna Stewart). Last year Stewart and Wilson set the all-time mark at 9.5 win shares for a single season. It seems like Wilson is bound to break it again.
As outrageous as her numbers were on Sunday, Becky Hammon playing her starters 30-plus minutes in a blowout is surprising. The Aces have had the most taxing last 365 days between their championship run and nearly their whole lineup going to Paris. It seems like she should be looking for any excuse to reduce their workload.
– I’m not sure I understand Seattle’s lineup choice to put Gabby Williams right into the starting lineup and give her 28 minutes on Sunday while playing Jordan Horston 13 minutes. Horston has been an efficient scorer this year and causes all sorts of problems on the defensive end. Williams went 1-for-7 shooting in 28 minutes because apparently her strong showing in Paris made everyone forget that she only has a career 45.1% effective field-goal percentage. Horston is at 50.8% eFG in%.
The Storm solved a problem that they didn’t have by signing Williams. They got a speedy, lanky defender who can run the floor with the best of them. What the Storm were really missing was 3-point shooting. With a 4-for-21 performance, they have reached catastrophic levels of bad shooting from beyond the arc and there is no answer in sight. The only suggestion would be having Nneka Ogwumike shoot more of them. As a team they are last in 3-point percentage, but she’s hitting 43.1% of her shots from deep. Maybe it’s time for her to be a little more selfish.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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Yeah, Jewel should not take all the shots. Give Nneka a chance.
The Fever have been an exciting team; I actually believe Caitlin Clark is a better passer than shooter, and Kelsey Mitchell is one of many to be benefitting. Also bear in mind, Clark is playing with several players who won NCAA championships so the team is jelling around players with a winning mentality. Satou Sabally is a solid player, but Dallas will still likely miss the playoffs and Trammel will be the first coach to lose her job. The Aces may be tired with 5 of their stars having played in the Olympics (compared to the Fever which had 1), but the experience may kick in against their likely playoff opponent, the Fever (if the Storm collapses).