Vary the Threes
Analyzing the historically high variance in WNBA teams' 3-point shooting so far this season
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Three-point shooting has been on the rise throughout the basketball world, and the WNBA has been no exception, with 3-point shooting rising steadily over the past ten seasons. However, a curious trend has been taking place this season - there is more variation between teams’ 3-point shooting frequency than ever before.
One of the most fundamental measurements in statistics is standard deviation, which measures the average distance from the average (mean) of the values in a data set. So far in 2024, there has been the greatest standard deviation of teams’ 3-point attempts per game in WNBA history. 1However, standard deviation does not account for the raw values in the data set, and teams shoot more 3-pointers now than in previous seasons. The coefficient of variation accounts for this by dividing the standard deviation by the mean. So far this season, the coefficient of variation for 3-point attempts per game is itself the largest it has been since 2014.
The curious thing about 2014 is that that is the season with the lowest league-wide average 3-point attempts per game since 2005. In 2014, the Bill Laimbeer-coached New York Liberty attempted only 9.9 3-pointers per game, which would be the lowest total in every subsequent season and also in six of the eight preceding seasons. However, New York actually shot substantially more 3-pointers that season than the Los Angeles Sparks, which averaged a mere 8.3 3-pointers per game, the fewest in any season since 2005.
Numerous factors account for this year’s unusually wide spread. Unlike in 2014, there are not merely one or two extreme teams helping to drive this massive amount of variance. The New York Liberty lead the league in 3-point attempts per game, but they are just behind their record-setting pace from last season, and there are several teams just a hair’s breadth behind them. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky at the opposite end of the spectrum are not historical outliers as one only needs to go back to 2021 to find a team that averaged fewer attempts, that year’s Las Vegas Aces (again coached by Bill Laimbeer). Across the WNBA, teams have taken different approaches to roster-building, shot selection, and rotation management which have produced legitimate stylistic differences. Keeping in mind that teams at both extremes may regress toward the mean as the season progresses and the sample size of games increases, examining teams at both ends of the distribution can elucidate teams’ differing philosophies on outside shooting.
New York Liberty: 29.4 attempts/game (2023: 29.7 attempts/game)
As mentioned earlier, New York set the WNBA record with 29.7 3-point attempts per game last season. Given its roster changes in the offseason, it actually might be surprising that its figure is not even higher. Backup center and noted floor spacer Stefanie Dolson left for Washington, and the team opted to replace her rotation spot with forwards Leonie Fiebich and Kennedy Burke rather than another traditional post player. An injury to Nyara Sabally, the only non-shooter in the team’s standard rotation, has then left Breanna Stewart playing a significant number of backup center minutes. Furthermore, Jonquel Jones has increased her outside shooting frequency from 2.3 to 4.3 3-point attempts per game, a change which puts her 3-point frequency on a per-40 minute basis more in line with what she recorded in previous seasons with the Connecticut Sun, and defensive ace Kayla Thornton has also pushed substantially more of her attempts outside the arc. However, a countervailing influence has been Stewart’s historically noteworthy cold stretch from 3-point range prompting her to scale back her outside shooting. Furthermore, new backup combo guard Ivana Dojkić, for all of her struggles inside the arc so far this season, is wired more as a slasher than the player she replaced, Marine Johannès. Overall, New York may still break its own record if Stewart rebuilds her confidence or if the team signs Johannès after the Olympics as has been speculated, and the team’s holistic construction reveals a commitment to perimeter play.
Phoenix Mercury: 28.9 attempts/game (2023: 20.7 attempts/game)
The Phoenix Mercury have constructed their roster around the 3-point shot as clearly as any other team in league history. The team is built to play with four out-and-out perimeter players at all times, deploying Sophie Cunningham and new addition Rebecca Allen extensively at the power forward position. The team only rosters three traditional post players, its three centers - even power forwards Mikiah Herbert Harrigan and the since-cut Morgan Bertsch play extensive minutes at small forward for their professional teams in Europe - and center duos have only played 17 minutes together through 16 games. This is a massive departure from last season when Brittney Griner’s most common on-court partner was non-shooting post player Brianna Turner. Coaching also clearly comes into play here. Blockbuster trade acquisition Kahleah Copper has also been given the greenest of green lights, and she is blowing her previous career high for 3-point frequency out of the water, shooting 7.1 attempts per game from long range after shooting 4.5 such attempts per game while under a similar minutes load last season with the Chicago Sky. Even Griner has gotten in on the act, with 6 of her 32 career 3-point attempts coming in the six games she has played this season. Beyond players’ individual shot selection, the team also ranks second in the league in pace, obviously goosing all sorts of raw numbers. Phoenix vaulting up the 3-point attempt rankings after launching a below-average 20.7 attempts per game last season represents a clear philosophical shift at all levels of the organization.
Las Vegas Aces: 28.1 attempts/game (2023: 24.9 attempts/game)
First and foremost, the identity of the Las Vegas Acecs remains in a relatively nascent stage because of Chelsea Gray’s extended injury-related absence. In her absence, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young have played more minutes and, in Young’s case, substantially more responsibility as a ballhandler and scorer. Both Plum and Young generate more of their offense beyond the 3-point arc in contrast to Gray, who is more of a mid-range maven, driving some of this increase, and Plum’s 3-point rate has actually risen from 41.3% to 50.2% while Young’s proportion of 3-point attempts has remained largely consistent. Las Vegas has also acquired three rotational players who generate substantial amounts of their scoring from beyond the arc: Kate Martin, Tiffany Hayes, and Megan Gustafson. Martin’s playing time has scaled down after the acquisition of Hayes, but at least one of the wings remains likely to maintain a spot in the rotation even after Gray becomes fully integrated. One more trend to continue to monitor is A’ja Wilson’s gradual migration beyond the arc, shooting 1.3 attempts per game so far this season after attempting only 0.7 such attempts per game last season. Of course, Wilson’s career-high in 3-point attempts per game actually came in 2022, coach Becky Hammon’s first season succeeding Bill Laimbeer, when she attempted 2.3 attempts per game from downtown. As such, Las Vegas’s average number of 3-point attempts could be in a very different place at the end of the season with room for change in either direction.
Washington Mystics: 27.2 attempts/game (2023: 23.1 attempts/game)
Of the four teams at the top of the 3-point volume rankings, Washington seems like the most surprising and the least intentional. While the Mystics brought in stretch five Stefanie Dolson and shooting specialist Karlie Samuelson in the offseason, the team still featured Brittney Sykes, a point guard with a very uneven historical track record as a shooter, and has as its two most intriguing long-term prospects two non-shooting post players in Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards. Furthermore, even Dolson and Samuelson’s reputation as shooters came more based on accuracy than volume, especially in Dolson’s case as someone with a history of playing starters’ minutes but with a career-high of 2.4 long-range attempts per game. However, a combination of injuries and development turned this on its head. First of all, Sykes and Austin have only combined to play 9 of 34 possible games. Austin’s injuries have helped preserve a place in the rotation for Myisha Hines-Allen, who had a difficult and inefficient season in 2023, but the real difference has been Sykes’s absence opening a starting spot for Julie Vanloo, a 31-year-old Belgian rookie who has averaged 5.7 3-point attempts per game and ranks in the 96th percentile league-wide in 3-point attempts per 40 minutes. Dolson is also blowing her career-high in 3-point frequency out of the water, shooting 4.4 such attempts per game, while Samuelson is above her career average in 3-point attempts per 40 minutes while averaging the most minutes of her WNBA career. An interesting difference between Washington and the teams above it is how few of its 3-pointers are the result of self-creation. 96.4% of Washington’s 3-point field goals have been assisted, with only Minnesota recording a higher proportion, and Vanloo’s four unassisted 3-point field goals render her the only Mystics with more than one. Even when Sykes and Austin return, the Mystics can hold steady in their 3-point attempt rate if Li Meng, who averaged 3.6 3-point attempts per game in a reserve role last season, returns to the team after the Olympics or if reserve power forward Emily Engstler, second on the team in 3-point attempts per 40 minutes among the team’s post players behind Dolson, continues to grow in confidence as a shooter and retains a spot in the rotation.
11. Connecticut Sun: 16.1 attempts/game (2023: 20.0 attempts/game)
With Jonquel Jones no longer on the Connecticut Sun roster last season, Connecticut was primed to start the season with two non-shooting post players in its starting lineup with Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones. But when the remaining Jones tore her Achilles tendon 13 games into the season, coach Stephanie White pushed Thomas, who started her career as a small forward, to center and inserted 3-and-D specialist Rebecca Allen into the starting lineup. This provided the Sun with a true 4-out starting lineup with Allen joining Natisha Hiedeman, Tiffany Hayes, and DeWanna Bonner on the perimeter. While Bonner led the team in 3-point attempts per game, she is also the only one of those four perimeter starters still on the team this season. This has led to Jones reassuming her role in the starting lineup and Tyasha Harris and DiJonai Carrington - less aggressive 3-point shooters than the players they replace - taking the guard spots. Furthermore, Carrington is shooting substantially fewer attempts per 40 minutes, possibly the result of a shooting slump that has her 3-point percentage down at 19.4%. Off the bench, non-shooter Olivia Nelson-Ododa retains the backup center spot, and the backup guard minutes are mostly split between shooting specialist Rachel Banham, whose 8.6 3-point attempts per 40 minutes stand right in line with her career average, and slasher Tiffany Mitchell. There are ways for Connecticut’s overall 3-point attempt rate to tick back up toward last year’s level, including Carrington returning to form or Astou Ndour-Fall earning some center minutes, but the Sun ultimately seem destined to remain below the league average in this category.
12. Chicago Sky: 14.4 attempts/game (2023: 22.2 attempts/game)
Once the Chicago Sky’s roster was finalized, it became crystal clear that the Sky would be less active from beyond the 3-point arc, but the extent to which it has been true appears to be the consequence of circumstance. In stark contrast to Phoenix, Chicago employs five traditional post players, including its two most exciting long-term prospects in first-round picks Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese. Not only do none of these post players possess any real track record as 3-point shooters, none of them even have a particularly fearsome reputation from long mid-range, with Isabelle Harrison constituting the closest to an exception. This roster construction decision exemplifies the team’s commitment to scoring near the basket. 58.6% of Chicago’s field-goal attempts have come within 10 feet of the rim; Connecticut lags behind in second place at 54.1% while the league average sits at 46.9%. However, that foreseeable tendency does not fully explain why the Sky are not just in last place in the league in 3-point attempts per game but more than 10% behind the team immediately above them. To help explain that, it is worth noting that a couple of wing players who may have been expected to provide some floor spacing have had efficiency issues that have made it difficult for them to stay on the court. Diamond DeShields was widely expected to be the starting small forward while Michaela Onyenwere was thought to be able to carve out a role at one or both forward positions, but both players rank in the bottom 5% in points per scoring attempt and have played substantially less than expected. By contrast, training camp invitee Chennedy Carter has re-emerged not just as a WNBA player but as an actively good contributor capable of playing more than 20 minutes per game, including significant time in three-guard lineups. That being said, Carter does not shoot many 3-pointers, pulling the team’s collective attempt rate down. Consequently, the team only has two consistent 3-point shooters in its rotation, point guards Marina Mabrey and Dana Evans. Furthermore, both Mabrey and Evans have a significant amount of on-ball responsibility, leading to Chicago having the lowest assisted 3-point field-goal rate in the league by far at only 69.2%. Carter has recently replaced Evans in the starting lineup, a change which very well may prove permanent given their respective performances over time, so this trend may only be amplified over time, especially if DeShields and Onyenwere do not round back into form.
Subsequent injuries, recoveries, and tactical or roster adjustments could alter teams’ numbers, and there is a good chance that some regression to the mean will take place and lower the overall league-wide variance. However, none of that is likely to be so stark as to change the fact that teams across the WNBA have employed a variety of strategic approaches. Given that New York and Connecticut, at opposite ends of the 3-point attempt rankings, both rank among the league’s best teams, what is clear is that there is more than one way to win a lot of games in this league.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts! Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
All stats in this article include games through June 23.
Regarding the Sky item: Chennedy Carter replaced Diamond DeShields in the starting lineup. Lindsay Allen replaced Dana Evans. Diamond has been dealing with nagging and major injuries the last couple years, not sure how much she has left, although she was good Sunday against the Fever. She’s getting good looks, just not knocking them down. As far as Evans, think she’s better when she gets herself in the lane and then lets the three come after she’s in a bit of rhythm. Not a fan of just jacking up threes, which she sometimes does. If she sees the ball go through the rim early, she usually has a decent game.