WNBA Storylines, Week of September 2, 2024
Playoff races take center stage with three weeks left in the regular season
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There are just three weeks left in the WNBA regular season, and with A’ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark having all but locked up MVP and Rookie of the Year, all eyes turn to the playoff race.
Aces trio of marquee matchups headline the week
Vegas has felt a bit under the radar for a two-time defending champ with the overwhelming MVP favorite – that should change this week as all three of the Aces games look to attract plenty of attention. First up, a visit from Angel Reese and the Sky Tuesday as the Aces look for their third win in four meetings this season but also to avenge a loss in the only meeting in Sin City.
A’ja Wilson’s averaging 26.3 ppg and 12.7 rpg in three games against the Sky this season, but had to grind for her 20 points when the teams met in Chicago last Sunday – 28.6% (8-for-28) from the field was her worst mark this season on a career-high number of field-goal attempts.
Angel Reese, fresh off becoming the WNBA’s single-season rebounding leader, has had a double-double in all three meetings with the Aces this season. With 24 under her belt, she needs five more double-doubles in Chicago’s final seven regular season games to break the single-season record of 28 set by Alyssa Thomas last season.
After that the Aces head east for a pair of matchups with the Eastern Conference’s best, starting Friday against the Sun. The teams have met just once this season – an 11-point Aces home win more than two months ago (June 21) in which Vegas’ advantage on the interior was on full display.
Vegas made 61.0% (25-for-41) inside the arc in the first meeting, exploiting one of the few flaws in what’s generally an excellent defense -- Connecticut is second in the WNBA in defensive rating (93.5) and third in opponent points per possession (0.85), but the Sun allow the fourth-highest 2-point field-goal percentage (49.5%) in the league.
On the offensive end, Connecticut had a rough day inside the arc, making just 41.7% (20-for-48). The Sun are 3-5 this season when making worse than 43.5% of their 2-point attempts compared to 21-3 when hitting that threshold. Vegas is second-best in the W holding opponents to just 46.7% inside the arc.
The Aces’ big week wraps up on Sunday with a visit to Barclays Center for a 2023 WNBA Finals rematch with the Liberty. As a practical matter, this Finals rematch is increasingly looking like a semifinals preview. Currently in fourth, the Aces trail Minnesota by 3.5 games for the No. 3 seed while Seattle is just a game back in fifth. If the Liberty hold onto the No. 1 seed and Vegas lands in either fourth or fifth, these teams will be ticketed for a semifinals matchup barring first round upsets.
New York’s won the previous two meetings this season by a combined 20 points, both in Vegas. The more recent of the two, the first weekend after the Olympic break, saw Vegas held to its second-fewest points this season (67). The Aces are 0-4 when held under 75 pts and 7-8 when held under 88 including both losses to New York.
The Stewie-A’ja debate gets the attention, but New York’s other former MVP has arguably had the biggest impact in the 2 matchups this season. Jonquel Jones has scored 44 points on 16-for-25 (64.0%) from the field, including 4-for-6 from deep with 24 rebounds and eight assists in two games against Vegas this season including a career-high 34 points in the first game and seven assists (one off her career-high) in the second.
Caitlin’s got the Fever above .500 – Can she get them the 5-Seed too?
Indiana’s won four straight games to bring its record above .500 for the first time in five years, snapping a 189-game streak without a winning record that stretched back to 2019. The Fever haven’t locked up a playoff berth yet, but it’s a formality with a 5.5-game lead over the teams currently battling for eighth.
This is Indiana’s second four-game win streak this season, their first two such streaks since 2015 when they had a pair of streaks of 5+ wins and last finished with a winning record.
When the Fever officially clinch a playoff berth, it’ll be their first since 2016, snapping the WNBA’s longest active playoff drought and leaving only the Sparks with a multi-year playoff absence.
With the playoffs all but assured, the better question is where will the Fever be seeded? They’re currently sitting in sixth, 2.5 games back of Seattle, but the schedule could provide an opportunity for the Fever to close the gap this week.
Indiana’s got a tough Friday matchup with the Lynx on the docket but gets all three games this week at home where the Caitlin Crazies, if I may coin a phrase, have helped carry the Fever to a 9-5 record compared to 8-11 on the road. Their other two games this week are against the last-place Sparks and a Dream squad tied for eighth and 5-11 on the road.
On the other hand, Seattle’s got a very tough week ahead. The Storm have a pair of games on the East Coast against the Sun on Tuesday and the Liberty on Thursday. Then, they head to Phoenix to face a Mercury team locked in its own seeding battle and 9-7 at home as opposed to 7-10 on the road.
Lynx and Sun jockeying for home-court in semis
As mentioned above, the standings likely have us headed towards a New York-Las Vegas rematch in the semifinals as opposed to the Finals. There are no bigger beneficiaries of that reality than the Sun and Lynx, the teams battling for the No. 2 seed who know they most likely have a path to the Finals without facing either the Liberty or Aces.
Connecticut’s currently a half-game up on the Lynx with a game in hand and own the tiebreaker with wins in both head-to-head meetings and just one remaining. But the Sun have the tougher week ahead with aforementioned home games against Seattle and Vegas. Also, starting Friday night they’ll close out the season with seven games in 14 days including a four-game West Coast road trip, two games against the Aces and a potentially pivotal matchup with the Lynx.
After Friday against the Aces they’re on the road for four straight, starting with two in LA against the last-place Sparks (ask the Liberty if they’re tanking…) followed by trips to Phoenix and Vegas. Their 11-5 road record is, however, the league’s second-best.
Minnesota’s off until Friday when it visits Indiana to start its own stretch of seven in 14 days and then heads to Washington on Sunday to face the moribund Mystics. With an 8-2 mark in their last 10 games, which is tied for the best in the WNBA, Minnesota’s remaining schedule may well give it the inside track over Connecticut.
Five of Minnesota’s seven remaining games are on the road, but only two of the seven come against the WNBA’s top-five teams. After Friday’s game in Indiana, the Lynx will play four of their six remaining games against teams in the WNBA’s bottom 5 with matchups against Washington, Atlanta, Chicago and the last-place Sparks.
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I think the Fever may take the 5th spot and play the Aces in Round 1 while the Storm at 6 will face either the Sun or the Lynx.