WNBA Storylines, Week of September 16, 2024
The playoffs are just six days away but the last spot is still up for grabs
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There are just 11 games and six days left until the WNBA playoffs, but a few important matters are still up in the air as the clock ticks down.
Last chance to earn the last spot
There’s a three-way tie for the final playoff spot between the Dream, Mystics and Sky entering the regular season’s final two game days. Each team has two games left to play with one head-to-head matchup Tuesday between Chicago and Atlanta.
No one can clinch the final playoff spot on Tuesday, but a Sky win would eliminate the Dream. The best Atlanta could do at that point would be either a two-way tie with Chicago (who would have won the season series 3-1) or a three-way tie with both the Sky and Mystics (Atlanta would be 3-5 in the three-way head-to-head, Chicago would be 4-4 and Washington has wrapped up at 5-3).
The Mystics would be the final playoff team if the season ended today by virtue of the aforementioned three-way tiebreaker. But to exercise their control over the final playoff spot’s destiny, the Mystics would need to earn both their first win against the Liberty all season and their second against the Fever in four attempts.
The best thing the Mystics have going for them this week is that they’ve been much better since seeing these opponents. All three meetings with New York came before June 10 during the Mystics’ 0-12 start (they’re 13-13 since). It hasn’t been as long with the Fever, but they last saw Indiana on July 10, Washington’s lone win in a 1-7 stretch to fall to 6-22 (they’ve won seven of 10 since that stretch).
While no one will clinch immediately by virtue of Tuesday’s head-to-head between Atlanta and Chicago, there’s a pretty realistic chance it does decide who advances to the playoffs when the dust settles Thursday. If Washington loses its final two games and both the Sky and Dream lose their challenging finales, Tuesday’s Sky-Dream result will be the determining factor.
For Atlanta, that Thursday finale is at Barclays Center against the Liberty while Chicago’s is in Connecticut against the Sun. Both the Dream and Sky are 0-3 in those season series.
Storm make last bid for home court after A’ja clinches scoring record
Seattle took advantage of its schedule to go 3-0 last week and keep pace with Las Vegas, setting up a crucial head-to-head Tuesday with Seattle’s hopes for home court in an increasingly likely first round matchup between the teams on the line.
The Aces will lock up home court with a win Tuesday that would give them a two-game lead while the Storm need wins in both games this week and a pair of losses by the Aces to offset Vegas’ superior record against teams above .500.
Jewell Loyd’s availability will be a key question for Seattle Tuesday after she missed Sunday’s win over the Sparks with knee soreness. Seattle’s top scorer with 19.7 points per game has had games of 28 and 25 points against the Aces this season, the latter in Seattle’s lone win in three meetings. She was also held scoreless in 34 minutes of an 11-point Aces win in June.
The Aces could still earn the third seed if they win both games this week and Connecticut loses its last two. That would leave the Aces and Sun both 27-13 with Vegas going 3-0 head-to-head. Wherever they end up seeded, A’ja Wilson will officially own the WNBA’s highest single-season scoring average after clinching the record in Sunday’s win over the Sun.
Wilson’s 29 points Sunday gave her exactly 1,000 this season and kept her steady at 27.0 points per game. Even if she suited up for both Aces games this week and didn’t score a point, Wilson would finish the season at 25.6 points per game and surpass Diana Taurasi’s 25.3 in 2006 for the WNBA record.
Liberty still on the verge after Lynx claim the tiebreaker
New York’s magic number to clinch the top seed in the playoffs remains at one after losing to the second place Lynx Sunday. The Lynx took ownership of the all-important tiebreaker with that win by taking the season series two games to one (excluding the Commissioners Cup title game, also won by the Lynx).
The Liberty have two more chances to clinch the top spot for themselves, first visiting the Mystics on Tuesday and then hosting the Dream to close out the regular season Thursday. They’re 3-0 this season against both of this week’s opponents, though the games against Washington have been much closer with a combined margin of 21 points compared to 44 against the Dream.
New York is looking to finish with the best record in the WNBA for the first time since 2015 when the Liberty (23-11) finished a game ahead of none other than the eventual WNBA champion Lynx (22-12) to claim the top record overall.
A loss by the Lynx in either of their final two regular season games would also give the top seed to the Liberty. Minnesota enters the final week with the WNBA’s longest active win streak at six in a row while winning 13 of 14 dating back to their last game before the Olympics.
The Lynx have a visit to Connecticut Tuesday before wrapping up at home against Los Angeles Thursday. If they’re going to be the ones to clinch the top seed for the Liberty it’s more likely to come in the first game -- the Lynx are 0-2 against the Sun this season compared to 3-0 against the Sparks.
The Lynx are looking to claim the top seed for the first time since 2017. That season they won the last of their record-tying four titles in their outright record sixth Finals appearance, all of which came in a span of seven seasons starting in 2011.
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