Would the Liberty rather face the Dream, Mystics or Sky in Round 1?
Three teams are battling for the No. 8 seed in the WNBA playoffs. Which would the Liberty match up best against?
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We have ourselves a good old-fashioned race for the final playoff spot, folks. Atlanta, Washington and Chicago are sitting within one game of each other for the No. 8 seed with two weeks remaining in the regular season.
While the Minnesota Lynx could pass the New York Liberty with continued blazing hot play and a sudden losing streak by New York, the Liberty are most likely to hang onto their three-game lead for the No. 1 seed, which means they will match up against whoever lands that final postseason position.
So how do the three teams competing to slip into the playoffs stack up against the Liberty? Which matchup would be the most and least favorable? Let’s rank them…
The least scary for New York is Chicago. The Sky’s biggest strengths are rebounding and slowing down opponents’ 3-point attack. Chicago ranks No. 1 in the WNBA in rebounds per game and rebound percentage. Despite their 12-22 record, the Sky have still occasionally proven to be an annoying club to face because the entire game ends up being played in the paint. But that’s perfectly fine with the Liberty, who rank second in rebounds per game and rebound percentage.
Facing off with a team that guards the perimeter well like Chicago could frustrate the 3-point-heavy Liberty, but New York has such a diverse attack that stopping one part of the game won’t be enough. Brooklyn’s finest rank No. 1 in percentage of points that come from 2-point range. In fact, the only area where the Liberty don’t score much is at the free-throw line. Chicago would certainly help them get there as the team that allows the highest free-throw rate in the WNBA.
Chicago’s Chennedy Carter has been a revelation, scoring the second-most points per 40 minutes in the WNBA and at a remarkable rate at the rim for a player of her size. But scoring around Carter is extremely limited. Angel Reese is shooting just 39.1% from the field and the only other player for Chicago averaging more than 10 points per game this season, Marina Mabrey, now plays for Connecticut.
The Liberty would leave a series with Chi-Town with a few more bruises than against other teams, but it’s very, very unlikely they would leave with a loss.
Atlanta is more worrisome for the Liberty. They are better than their overall numbers would suggest because a lot of their woeful stats came with Rhyne Howard sidelined with an injury. And even though Howard’s season has been typical in the sense of her overall inefficient volume shooting (37.5% from the field), she has the capability to get blazing hot from 3-point land and put up huge point totals. In her last two games, Howard scored 64 points combined and made 12 3-pointers. Overall the Dream’s net rating is 11.1 points per 100 possessions with their star playing versus when she isn’t on the floor.
Tina Charles and Allisha Gray both hover around 15 points per game and have occasional outbursts of production, like Charles’ recent three-game stretch where she scored 28, 19 and 23, including a triple-double mixed in.
Getting point guard Jordin Canada, who played 41 minutes in an OT win over Dallas on Friday night, has been a boost to Atlanta’s offense as well.
Still, the Dream are the worst field-goal percentage team in the W and rank 11th in points per 100 possessions. Their key players would have to get sunspot-level hot in order to keep up with New York.
The most dangerous team for the Liberty could be Washington.
The Mystics have won five of their last six games, including victories over Seattle and Phoenix. Getting Brittney Sykes back has been important for their transition game, and they seem to be finding different heroes each night, like Emily Engstler breaking up an inbound to seal a win over Seattle or Karlie Samuelson dropping 19 points on the Mercury.
But there is really only one reason Washington is mildly concerning for New York: 3-pointers.
The Mystics rank second in 3-point percentage, second in 3-point rate behind the Liberty and first in percentage of points that come from deep. They also move the basketball. The Mystics rank second in the percentage of shots that come via assist, only behind the Lynx.
Washington’s inability to get to the hoop (eighth in restricted-area attempts) and poor defense (10th in opponent points per scoring attempt) would make them an extreme long shot against the Liberty, but if there’s anything that can even the tides in a three-game series, it’s 3-point shooting.
In 10 games against these opponents, the Liberty have only lost one and that was against Chicago way back on May 23. Since then, Washington is the only one of the group to play the Liberty within five points.
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
The best offensive teams aren’t getting to the rim
Messing around with our heap of data here at Her Hoop Stats, I noticed something interesting: The top three teams in terms of offensive rating – the Aces, Liberty and Lynx – are the three teams with the fewest shot attempts in the restricted area.
The Lynx are crushing the mid-range game with the second-most attempts and second-highest percentage and Minnesota is the No. 1 3-point shooting percentage team in the league. The Liberty have a massive edge in 3-point volume, ranking No. 1 in attempts by nearly 100 over the next team.
There are still some bigs in the league who can score down low, but it’s a shooter’s league. Out of the top eight teams in restricted area shot attempts, only the Indiana Fever have over a 100 offensive rating. Five of the top six teams in 3-point attempts have over 100 ratings.
The Lynx are an outlier when it comes to midrange shooting. Out of the top six teams in midrange attempts, Minnesota is the only one making more than 40% of those shots.
For the Aces, A’ja Wilson is driving them to the No. 1 ranking in midrange shooting (43.3%) and they have still been a solid 3-point shooting team at 34.5% with the fifth most attempts. Those numbers are a bit different from their 2023 championship team though. The Aces were the No. 2 deep shooting team in attempts and percentage (behind NYL). They had the highest percentage at the bucket last season and rank second this year.
Big win for the Lynx
Speaking of the Lynx, they remain the league’s hottest team, winning nine of their last 10 including Friday night’s victory over Indiana. They did something in that game that most have failed to do lately: Make Kelsey Mitchell an inefficient shooter. She went just 7-for-19 with four turnovers. The head of the snake may be Caitlin Clark but the key to beating Indiana is to keep Mitchell from putting up 30.
By the way, can we take a second to appreciate Bridget Carleton? She played 30 minutes, scored 16 points on 10 shots and took on very difficult assignments against the Fever. She continues to be the quietest excellent player in the league. After Friday night’s big game, she ranks 17th in win shares, just ahead of Clark and Mitchell.
You OK, Storm?
Skylar Diggins-Smith had a postgame rant for the ages after the Storm lost to the Mystics.
"In this league, if you aren't ready to play, you'll get beat every f– – night," Diggins-Smith said. "They were ready to play and we weren't, on both sides of the basketball. They deserved to win the game if we're going to play like that.”
Diggins-Smith went on to say that she’s never played on a team with as much talent as the Storm and wants to maximize their opportunities down the stretch and into the playoffs. But what’s the path?
Gabby Williams had a 17-point game on Thursday, but they still only managed 70 points as a team against the Liberty. Seattle is shooting a league-worst 28.4% from beyond the arc, 2.9 percentage points below the next-worst team. In a league dominated by deep shooting, they are 10 percentage points behind the league’s leader.
When everyone is shooting poorly, you have to wonder about chemistry, scheme and individual decisions. Seattle isn’t creating open shots with its passing, ranking ninth on shots made with an assist. Jewell Loyd has the second lowest effective field-goal percentage in the league among players with 10+ shots per game, yet she’s taking the fourth most shots in the W. Diggins-Smith is 34th of 37 and takes 12.9 shots per game (20th most).
Somebody has to decide they are going to be the facilitator, otherwise Seattle won’t last long in the playoffs.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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Who ever the Liberty face in the first round, it doesn't matter, all the Liberty need to do is to be composed and focused and everything will take care of itself