X-Factors and key stats for the WNBA Semifinals
The top four teams in the regular season standings remain, making for some fascinating matchups
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It’s time, everyone. The WNBA Semifinals. We couldn’t have asked for two better matchups as the Sun face off with the Lynx and the Aces take on the Liberty in a rematch of last year’s finals. Let’s dive into the factors that will decide each series….
Connecticut Sun
X-Factor: Slowing the game down
Key stat: Sun rank 12th in possessions per game
Think about the things coaches always say in terms of preferred play style. What comes to mind is playing up tempo, moving the basketball, avoiding turnovers, creating second chances. Well, the Sun do not allow their opponents to do any of that stuff.
They played at the slowest pace in the league in terms of possessions per 40 minutes, allowed the second fewest assists per game, the fewest opponent rebounds per game, third fewest restricted area field-goal attempts against and caused the most opponent turnovers per game.
Connecticut plays to the style of its best players. You won’t find a front court with three tougher, smarter and more physical players than Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones or a more tenacious defender than DiJonai Carrington in the backcourt. It feels relevant that the key grindfest Sun players have all been doing this for years with the franchise. It’s very hard to force them out of their game.
That was evident during the three games in the regular season against the Lynx; the Sun gave up 82, 73 and 76 points and won two of those closely-contested games. If Minnesota ends up being held under 80 points per game, Connecticut has a great chance to take the series.
X-Factor: Containing the mid-range MVPhee
Key stat: Collier shot 58.3% vs. Connecticut this year
Napheesa Collier put together two of the best WNBA playoff games in history by scoring 80 points in the Lynx’s 2-0 sweep of Phoenix. She shot a preposterous 64.1% from the field in those two games and made a ludicrous 20 2-point baskets on just 31 attempts.
While Cheryl Reeve did a great job of getting Phee open under the basket in the series, Collier’s scariest area of the floor is midrange. This season she was in the 95th percentile of mid-range field-goal percentage, hitting 64-of-120 shots (53.3%). Her shot creation ability in that area is also terrific as she ranked in the 97th percentile of mid-range field-goal makes.
The Lynx may not have put up big point totals against Connecticut this year, but they did not stop Phee. She scored 21.7 points per game against them. The question the Sun may face is whether they should put their focus mainly on slowing down the perimeter shooting around Phee or try to move her off her mid-range spots?
X-Factor: Winning the free-throw battle
Key stat: Sun had the second highest percentage of points come from free throws
The Sun got to the free throw line 23 times in their Game 2 victory over the Fever. That’s a product of their aggressive play and ability to create shots at the bucket (the Sun had the second most restricted area attempts in the W this year).
What might surprise you is that Connecticut didn’t foul very often. So they ended up with the second lowest foul total per game and their opponents had the second highest. The Lynx committed the third fewest fouls, but their spread-it-out style does play into Connecticut’s hands as Minnesota also drew the fewest fouls per game.
X-Factor: Drawing the Lynx in to create kick-out 3-pointers
Key stat: Marina Mabrey hit eight 3-pointers and scored 44 points vs. Indiana
Connecticut probably can’t win without playing a little bit of Lynx-style ball. Since acquiring Mabrey (including playoffs), the Sun are the sixth best 3-point shooting team in terms of percentage and the third best overall field-goal percentage team. The Lynx may have to pack the paint to slow down Thomas and Jones from dominating under the basket, which should open up some opportunities for Mabrey. But the Lynx rotate extremely well and allow the lowest opponent 3-point percentage in the league. Whoever wins that side of the battle will have a significant edge in the series.
Minnesota Lynx
X-Factor: Boards and turnovers
Key stat: The Sun allow the fewest rebounds per game by opponents and rank No. 1 in opponent turnover rate
Two areas where the Sun are decidedly better than the Lynx is in rebounding and turnovers. Minnesota plays a small lineup so they aren’t built to bully opponents for rebounds, but as the 10th ranked defensive rebound percentage team, they can’t allow the W’s fourth best offensive rebounding team to get second chance after second chance.
For a club with such spectacular ball movement, the Lynx do have their fair share of giveaways. Minnesota was seventh in turnovers per game while the Sun were third. Connecticut also causes the most turnovers per game. Any extra possessions in a series like this could be problematic for Reeve’s team.
X-Factor: Avoiding forced 3-pointers versus an elite perimeter defense
Key stat: Lynx shot 38.3% from 3-point land vs. Sun, who ranked second in opponent 3-point percentage
The Sun’s defense is quick, relentless, lanky, smart and well coached. That’s why they gave up the second lowest percentage from 3-point land of any team in the WNBA. But the Lynx can’t let that deter them from firing away from deep. Minnesota had the best 3-point percentage in the league and the third highest percentage of their points came from downtown. The outside shooters Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton are like planets circling around the sun (Napheesa Collier). They are often perfectly in sync with their ball movement and Collier is extremely good at kicking out to whoever is open on the outside. The key against the Sun may be patience. Resetting the offense rather than forcing threes with a Carrington or Bonner hand in their face. If there is one defender the Lynx could try to hunt, it’s Mabrey.
X-Factor: Limiting Alyssa Thomas’s playmaking and Brionna Jones at the basket
Key stat: Sun are 12-1 when Thomas gets 10 assists or more (only loss was to the Lynx by two points)
Thomas has given the Lynx fits over the years. She posted a triple-double with 14 assists in a win over the Lynx on July 4, and had 18 points in each of the two other games versus Minnesota. Thomas can deliver anything from full-court bombs to passes in tight space to create easy scoring chances.
When Thomas is moving the ball effectively, shots open up for everyone else, particularly Brionna Jones. She had the eighth best individual offensive rating in the W this year among players with 25 minutes per game or more and the sixth most 2-point made shots per 40 minutes.
X-Factor: Volume Phee is a good Phee
Key stat: Out of 25 games with 15 or more field-goal attempts, Colliar has made 45% or better in 17 of them
The true sign of a superstar is matching volume with efficiency. That’s Collier. She and Cheryl Reeve seem to have answers for any way that opponents try to defend her. Only three times has the MVP runner-up been held to fewer than 13 shots in a game. If the Lynx keep pushing the limits on her usage, good things will happen.
New York Liberty
X-Factor: Sabrina Ionescu inside the arc
Key stat: Ionescu shot 50.0% and scored 53 points vs. Atlanta
The 2023 version of Ionescu’s 3-point shooting and the 2024 version of her 2-point shooting showed up against Atlanta. The results were spectacular. Last year the star guard hit 44.8% from 3-point land but struggled everywhere inside the arc. She made just 27-of-102 (26.4%) on shots from either the non-restricted area paint or mid-range in 2023. This year she dropped to 33.2% from 3-point land but saw a lot more opportunity inside the arc and improved her efficiency, shooting 84-for-206 (40.7%).
In Round 1, Ionescu made 8-of-15 shots that were either in the paint outside the restricted area or mid-range and 8-of-18 3-pointers. If she does that again, the Aces are in trouble. But the Aces are much better than the Dream. They rank third in opponent 2-point percentage and Jackie Young has a case for being the best on-ball defender in the W. If Sandy Brondello can find ways to get Ionescu away from Young, she has a chance to make an impact driving to the basket.
The one weak point for the Aces is opponent 3-point shooting. They finished ninth in percentage allowed and percentage of total points from beyond the arc allowed. Opportunities will be there for Ionescu to shoot from deep, but she has to toe the line between shooting aggressively and forcing it.
X-Factor: Wearing down the Aces
Key stat: Wilson, Plum, Young are all top 10 in minutes played over the last three regular seasons, top five in playoff minutes since 2022 and played in the Olympics. Aces went 1-9 when allowing more than 85 points
When the teams are this good, the stars are going to get selected for All-Star games and the Olympics and make deep playoff runs, so both sides have been worn down this season. The difference between the Liberty and Aces is that Vegas stressed their starters throughout the season while Chelsea Gray was out. Wilson, Plum and Young combined for an average of 60.5 points per game. That’s 70% of the team’s scoring on the shoulders of three players. New York’s top three only needed to give them 61% on average.
The Aces have played at a slightly faster pace than New York so it isn’t like the Liberty can just run them up and down the floor, but there are some areas where fatigue could show itself. The Aces are last in offensive rebounding rate and Wilson has her lowest shooting percentage in the fourth quarter of games. Could New York’s strategy be to goad the Aces into high-flying shootouts? The Liberty had a better record in games they allowed more than 85 points than the Aces but they were only 4-4 when that happened.
X-Factor: Getting Jonquel Jones rolling early
Key stat: Five of Liberty’s eight losses came when Jones scored fewer than 10 points. They were undefeated (11-0) when she had more than 17 points
Whatever Jonquel Jones does in warm-ups, it works. In the first quarter this year she is shooting 49.0% from 3-point land. You might think that’s a small sample size issue (and you would be right) but she did the same thing last year, canning 40.0% of threes in the first quarter.
Of course, “getting Jones rolling” means a lot more than having her huck some threes out of the game. She was deserving of being in the MVP conversation this season because of her wildly efficient shooting (No. 1 in effective field-goal percentage among starters). One thing that stands out about her shooting is that 83.5% of her attempts came via an assist, so it’s vital for the Liberty to make sure the ball keeps finding her.
X-Factor: Lineup flexibility
Key stat: Courtney Vandersloot only played 32 minutes and Kayla Thornton 30 mins in two games vs. Atlanta while Leonie Fiebich played 47 minutes and scored 30 points.
It can’t be said enough how important Fiebich’s emergence is toward the Liberty’s aim for a championship. She has given them an additional sharp shooter with size, which is worth its weight in gold these days in the W, and more flexibility lineup wise. Per Basketball-Reference, in 122 minutes with Fiebich and the other four starters, the Liberty have a +22.0 net points per 100 possessions and they were +32.8 against the Dream.
But they weren’t that far behind in the regular season with Vandersloot on the floor (+16.5) and +19.3 with Fiebich and Kayla Thornton playing alongside Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
The Liberty simply have way more buttons to push than the Aces. They also might be wise to get Nyara Sabally on the floor from time to time. She’s played limited minutes but ranks in the 94th percentile in rebounds per 40 minutes, 95th percentile in blocks per 40, 100th percentile in steals per 40 and shoots 57.5% from the field.
Las Vegas Aces
X-Factor: Continuing Gray-tness
Key stat: Vegas was +11.3 offensive rating differential with Gray on the court, +3.7 off
Chelsea Gray’s box score stats have not been exceptional this season but you’d be out of your skull to think that she isn’t impacting the Aces in a massive way. The Aces have been a better defensive team since she returned and they ask for fewer off-the-dribble shots from everyone. That was evidenced as Gray produced 16 assists in two games against the Storm. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that in June only 42.6% of Jackie Young’s shots were assisted but 62.0% were assisted in July and August.
Gray also has a way of stopping runs. She just seems to sense when her team needs a big basket. She’ll pull out the fadeaway and drain a 15-footer to end a run or kickstart one. That along with her experience, ability to make impossible passes and willingness to battle like crazy gives the Aces an extra edge.
X-Factor: Attacking with Plum
Key stat: Plum scored 29 points despite only two 3-pointers vs. Seattle in Game 2
Nobody outside of Las Vegas wants to see the aggressive version of Plum. This season she took 130 shots within five feet of the basket but last year that number was 174. That was a contributing factor to her overall field-goal percentage sliding a bit from 2023. Against Seattle she went 4-for-5 within five feet and 5-for-6 between 5-10 feet from the basket. If Plum is flying to the bucket, she becomes much more of a threat rather than when she’s hanging around outside the arc. For her size, she’s good at finishing at the rim (61st percentile), so getting her cutting and slashing should be a priority.
X-Factor: Getting anything from the bench
Key stat: Aces scored seven points off the bench outside of Tiffany Hayes
It’s been a tough ride for the Aces bench outside of Hayes. In the clinching game vs. Seattle, bench players not named Hayes went 0-for-4 shooting. The Aces need something from Alysha Clark. She has an outstanding track record of efficiency, which they will need again if they’re going to compete with the deeper Liberty. Even if Clark is only playing 15 minutes per game, being able to give anyone a rest will be valuable.
X-Factor: Avoid contested jump shots for A’ja Wilson
Key stat: Wilson shoots 10% better when she’s between 16-feet and the 3-point line than 10-16 feet
There is absolutely no answer for the world’s greatest player but if there is one thing that occasionally plagues Wilson (and this is very nitpicky) is that she will be forced into contested shots just outside the paint. Whether it’s the shot clock ticking down or her trying to take over when things aren’t going well, the only version of Wilson that isn’t insanely effective is those 10-15 foot jumpers with someone in her face.
How do the Liberty make her shoot those? Slowing the Aces over half court and getting them behind in the clock could be one way. Denying her entry passes is another. Not that any of that is easy but with Jones and Stewart the Liberty have the best chance of anyone of doing that.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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