X-Factors for every WNBA playoff team
The postseason begins on Sunday so let's look at the key to a deep run for all eight teams
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It’s the most wonderful time of year in the WNBA. On Sunday, the playoffs kick off with four fascinating matchups and intriguing storylines everywhere. As we know, anything can happen in the W postseason, so let’s have a look at every team’s biggest X-Factor that could propel them to a championship or sink them in the first round….
New York Liberty
Road to a ring X-Factor: Ionescu’s shooting, overcoming the pressure
Because the Liberty rolled to the best record in the WNBA, Sabrina Ionescu’s shooting struggles weren’t really noticeable in New York’s results down the stretch, but the star point guard only made 33.3% of her field-goal attempts and 28.9% of three-pointers since returning from the Olympic break. Overall her effective field-goal percentage dropped this year from 56.2% in 2023 to 48.2%, which is the difference between ranking seventh among players who take at least 10 shots per game to 22nd.
Last year in the Finals, Ionescu shot only 31.6% against the Aces and averaged just 9.8 points per game. As strong as the Liberty are with their superstars and improved depth, they can’t win a championship without major scoring contributions from Ionescu.
That ties into the pressure the Liberty are facing this year. They aren’t exactly in Last Dance mode so long as Breanna Stewart re-signs next year, but you never know how many chances a super team is going to have to win a ring. It isn’t easy to repeat 80% winning percentages year after year. When a team gets its chance as the most powerful club in the league, they best not miss. As the favorites, they will be feeling the weight of that pressure in the postseason.
Minnesota Lynx
Road to a ring X-Factor: Contributions from everywhere, swarming defense
The Lynx’s cheat code is that they have an entire starting lineup and several bench players who are capable of being the second best player on the floor for them on a given night. Napheesa Collier, who finished third in win shares, is always going to be the centerpiece, but big performances have been almost equally distributed out through the rest of the lineup. In terms of games with at least 14 points or more, Kayla McBride has 16, Courtney Williams 13, Alanna Smith 10 and Bridget Carleton 12.
Cheryl Reeve’s team has also seen 20 double-digit games from bench players this year. The addition of Myisha Hines-Allen has only added to Minnesota’s ridiculous depth. In 13 games as a Lynx, she’s shooting 50.0% and providing 7.5 points and 4.2 rebounds per game.
Hines-Allen also makes the Lynx even better on defense. They finished the regular season No. 2 in points allowed per game, and No. 1 in opponent effective field-goal percentage.
And another X-Factor might be the simple fact that nobody has played better since the Olympic break. Recent wins against New York and Connecticut to wrap up the No. 2 seed had to be confidence-building for Reeve’s squad heading into the postseason.
Connecticut Sun
Road to a ring X-Factor: Mabrey’s offense, forcing opponents to play their game
The change of scenery has been great for Marina Mabrey. After being traded from Chicago to Connecticut she has an outstanding 57.4% effective field-goal percentage and 14.9 points per game. She was exactly the upgrade that the Sun needed as they have improved from being one of the league’s worst 3-point shooting teams at midseason to finishing sixth. In the playoffs they will especially need Mabrey to stay hot because the Sun do not stack up particularly well overall to the other top teams in the postseason. They finished eighth in effective field-goal percentage and seventh in points per scoring attempt.
Even with Mabrey changing the equation, the Sun can’t play in shootouts with the other squads. They have to drag opponents (starting with the high-flying Fever) into their slow-paced grindfest web and suffocate them. The Sun are last in possessions per 40 minutes and second in opponent points per 100 possessions. They are particularly not allowing teams to light it up from beyond the 3-point arc, allowing just a 31.3% 3-point percentage this year. If they can play rock ‘em sock ‘em ball, the Sun can go deep in the postseason.
Las Vegas Aces
Road to a ring X-Factor: Chelsea Gray being Chelsea Gray, playing on fumes
In the Aces’ final four games of the regular season, they went 4-0 and Chelsea Gray shot 47.6% from the field and averaged 4.5 assists and played 28.5 minutes per game. The rest of the playoff teams should be pretty worried about that. The last two years in the playoffs have been pure artistry from Gray. She averaged 21.7 points and 7.0 assists in the 2023 postseason and then 15.6 points and 6.8 assists in last year’s championship run. If she does that again, the rest of the Aces’ stars can fit back into their proper roles.
When the Aces didn’t have Gray at 100 percent this year, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young’s efficiency dipped. Plum’s eFG% went down from 56.6% in a 2023 to 52.6% this year and Young slid from 57.7% to 50.6%. Those are still good numbers but not on the same level as before. If they benefit from Gray’s additional scoring and ball movement with more open shots, look out.
The Aces seemed to get a second wind after sputtering in their return from the Olympic break, but nobody has played more basketball than them over the last three years. Deep playoff runs, big minutes in the Olympics and now they will have a difficult matchup with the Storm in Round 1. Vegas is going to have to dig deep and get contributions from other players than just the starting five, particularly Tiffany Hayes, in order to make a run at a three-peat.
Seattle Storm
Road to a ring X-Factor: Diggins-Smith’s efficiency, Williams’ defense and transition scoring
The Storm made an enormous jump with the additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, but they had some bumps along the way, particularly on offense. Overall the Storm finished eighth in field-goal percentage and last in the WNBA in 3-point percentage. That’s not going to get the job done against the Aces, no matter how good their defense may be. Guards Diggins-Smith and Jewell Loyd are the center of their shooting struggles. They ranked as the two lowest percentage deep shooters in the W among players with at least 20 games played and at least three attempts per game. There is no path to a title with the backcourt making under 30% of 3-pointers.
The addition of Gabby Williams did bolster Seattle’s scoring. She is averaging 10.3 points per game with a 48.1% field-goal percentage, well above her career average of 42.9%. Williams’ speed adds a different dynamic to an already fast-paced team (third in possessions per 40 minutes). If she can cause havoc in transition, the Storm won’t be an easy out.
Indiana Fever
Road to a ring X-Factor: Backcourt defense, rising to competition
It was a tale of two seasons offensively for the Fever, who got on track early in June and flew up the leaderboard for highest scoring teams in the league, ending the season third with 85.0 points per game. Defensively, well, that’s a different story. The Fever ranked 11th in opponents points per 100 possessions and 10th in opponent effective field-goal percentage. In particular opposing guards were, well, unopposed when playing the Fever. Out of 66 players who averaged 20 minutes per game or more, Caitlin Clark finished 52nd and Kelsey Mitchell 63rd in defensive rating. If Connecticut’s guards shoot the basketball well, the Fever’s first playoff series in a long time will be a short one.
The Fever had a good season overall and were much more dangerous down the stretch than they were early in 2024, but they still didn’t match up particularly well against the W’s best teams. In games against the top four finishers in the standings, Indiana went 3-12 and one of the wins was against the Lynx when they didn’t have Napheesa Collier. We’ll find out right away as they play the Sun if they can rise to the challenge.
Phoenix Mercury
Road to a ring X-Factor: Fountain of youth, Copper takeover mode
Since coming back from the Olympic break, Diana Taurasi has made only 28.7% of her 3-point attempts and averaged 13.3 points per game. That’s not going to be enough to beat the Lynx’s deep scoring attack, particularly with the Mercury ranking ninth in opposing points per game. They’ll have to fight fire with fire, which is more possible with Brittney Griner playing as well as she has lately. Since the break, Griner is shooting 60.3% from the field with 17.0 points per game. If the elders of Phoenix play at their best, the Mercury can hang around.
They can also make things interesting if Kahleah Copper is unstoppable. The Mercury are 11-2 when Copper scores 24 or more points. One of the wins was a 34-point explosion against Minnesota. She will need an entire postseason of games like that in order to have any chance to go deep in the playoffs.
Atlanta Dream
Road to a ring X-Factor: Howard shot selection, contributors outside top three scorers
The Dream are a better team than their final record because they sputtered so badly when Howard was injured. But they still only won eight of 17 games, in part because Howard has only made 36.2% of her shots from the field in that span. In particular, she has been extremely ineffective shooting between 5-15 feet from the basket, making just 18-of-64 shots this year. She’s in the 21st percentile between 5-10 feet and 33rd percentile between 10-15 feet in terms of percentage. Howard has to focus on either getting to the bucket or firing from deep to be even remotely efficient.
Atlanta’s top-heavy lineup has seen Howard, Tina Charles and Allisha Gray pull the majority of the weight but that’s not going to get the job done against the Liberty. Jordin Canada’s return has given them a boost with her 10.9 points per game, and lately Naz Hillmon has emerged with 8.1 points per game after a post-Olympic jump in minutes. They will need someone else – anyone else – to rise to the challenge as well.
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