2021 Reflections and 2022 Forecast: Chicago Sky
Chicago is still celebrating its first WNBA Championship, but there's big decisions on the horizon
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The Chicago Sky are WNBA Champions for the first time. Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot and Kahleah Copper helped the Sky pull off one of the most surprising title runs in basketball history (at least on paper). The franchise is still covered in champagne from their parade and reveling in the glory. But the offseason waits for no team and Chicago has a lot of big decisions to make. Let’s recap their season and look ahead to what’s next for the champs.
By the numbers
Record: 16-16 (0.500, worst since 2018), 6th seed (third consecutive playoff berth)
Points Scored: 83.3 (3rd), Points Allowed: 81.9 (8th), Margin Per Game: 1.3 (6th)
Offensive Rating: 99.6 (6th), Defensive Rating: 97.1 (6th), Net Rating: 2.5 (6th)
Stats that they ranked 1st in: Free Throw Percentage (84.5%), Assists per game (21.8), Assisted shot rate (70.7%), Opponent three-point rate (23.9%)
2021 Season Reflections
We will start in the regular season, even though Chicago wildly outperformed their record in the playoffs. With a .500 winning percentage, the Sky holds the worst regular season record of any WNBA champion by a pretty wide margin. The 2004 Seattle Storm previously held that distinction with a 20-14 record (0.588). There aren’t many close comparisons across American basketball history outside of the 1977-78 Washington Bullets and their 44-38 record.
Chicago’s regular season was pretty disappointing, especially considering the buzz that Candace Parker’s homecoming brought to the franchise. Adding Parker to a veteran team with a ton of experience together should have yielded immediate results. The Sky opened the season with a beatdown of the Washington Mystics and looked something close to our expectations, but they couldn’t reach their potential for most of the season. After a 2-0 start, Chicago dropped seven straight games and traded their 2021 first-round pick, Shyla Heal, for a player drafted later in the same draft, Dana Evans. The team would settle in to win seven straight games and looked poised to climb the standings after the Olympics. However, the Sky was still up and down with a 6-6 record to end the regular season. They had a 32-point win against Seattle immediately followed by a 20-point loss to Phoenix.
Injuries and absences had a lot to do with the team’s regular season struggles. Only five players played in 30 or more games for Chicago with Parker, Allie Quigley and Stef Dolson all missing significant time. James Wade also had to experiment with his roster to figure out the right fit and who he could rely on. To that end, the team’s best four-player lineup (Courtney Vandersloot, Quigley, Kahleah Copper and Parker) played just 243 minutes together in the regular season before playing 209 minutes together in the playoffs, basically doubling their minutes per game. However, injuries don’t fully explain the team’s .500 record. A potential explanation lies in what Candace Parker said after the team’s second-round playoff victory: “we’re a team that does things when we have to.” Perhaps the Sky needed the pressure of the playoffs to reach their full potential.
Chicago certainly showed signs of their championship upside during the regular season. They finished first in free throw percentage by making 84.5% of their freebies, which is the 9th best mark in WNBA history. The Sky led the league in assists and became one of five teams in WNBA history to assist on 70% or more of their shots (70.7%). They also finished second in points in the paint per game (38.9) despite not having a traditional big posting up. These strengths were magnified in the playoffs when making free throws, knowing how to play together and easy baskets became premium skills.
However, the Sky’s playoff run was still surprising because everything came together perfectly. Every time that Chicago needed to respond to a run by the other team or get a big basket, they got it. Vandersloot put on one of the greatest playoff performances by a point guard in basketball history. She became the first player in WNBA playoff history to average 10 or more assists per game (minimum 3 games played). More importantly, she dictated the pace of every game and made the right decision in big moments. Copper used her speed to get easy transition buckets and her strength to eat up smaller guards en route to winning Finals MVP. Quigley hit huge shots and enabled a lot of Chicago’s offense with her spacing. Azurá Stevens, Dolson, Diamond DeShields, and even Astou Ndour-Fall all chipped in when called upon. James Wade had a great feel in his game management and pulled out some really great play calls when it mattered most.
Of course, Candace Parker proved to be the missing piece for Chicago. Her skills on the perimeter opened up the offense and her basketball IQ gave everyone else freedom to make decisions on the fly. Defensively, Parker was truly brilliant. You’d be hard-pressed to find better help defenders in this game than CP and that ability pushed Chicago’s defense to a new level. Beyond her play, Parker gave us some beautiful moments like when she found her daughter for a post-championship hug or when she gave us this great nugget of wisdom.
Cap Situation by Richard Cohen
This Sky squad was largely built for a two-year window of 2020-21 that we've now come to the conclusion of, which means they now have a lot of work to do. Their starting posts from the latter part of the season, Candace Parker and Azurá Stevens, are under contract, as are deep bench reserves Ruthy Hebard and Dana Evans - and that's it. Key starters and rotation players like Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Kahleah Copper, Stefanie Dolson, Astou Ndour-Fall (all unrestricted) and Diamond DeShields (restricted) are all out of contract. It’s very unlikely that they're going to be able to keep this entire group in town.
They could core somebody - Vandersloot and Copper both seem like viable options - but that's only an option for a maximum of one player. All those other unrestricted free agents are going to be able to walk away to other teams if they want to. After an underwhelming season where she lost her starting spot midway through, they may also not want to pay DeShields what will be on offer elsewhere. If that's the case, they might try to work a sign-and-trade deal in order to get back some value for her, rather than watch her sign an offer sheet and then simply not match it and see her leave.
All that cap space could be used to try to upgrade in free agency, but assuming they want to keep at least Vandersloot, Copper and maybe one of the posts, there won't be a huge amount left to spend (especially if keeping Vandersloot also means paying and keeping her wife Quigley). When they set their two-year window it was before Candace Parker arrived, which may have altered their timeline. Rather than looking to start a semi-rebuild, they may well try to bring back as many pieces as they can afford, and go again with their veteran core.
2022 Offseason Forecast
Everything is rosier in the offseason after winning a championship. Most teams will opt to run it back as much as possible in the next season, sometimes to their own detriment. As Richard detailed, Chicago basically has a blank slate to work with. But it would be surprising if they didn’t try to retain their championship core, especially with Candace Parker under contract for another year.
Perhaps Quigley and Vandersloot are willing to play ball with the organization and take less than their maximum possible salary to stay together in Chicago. They did so before the 2020 season and Parker took slightly less (about $50) than her max when she signed. However, it would be surprising if those two took a pay cut AFTER winning a title. The Sky can hypothetically afford both of them on their salaries from last season, but it will complicate the rest of the roster.
Kahleah Copper has implied that she will be back by asking Sky fans if they are ready for another run in her Players’ Tribune article. The Sky may use the core designation to ensure her return. Remember that the core designation doesn’t necessarily mean that the player will receive a full supermax salary. Wade can use it to essentially guarantee one more season with Copper at the supermax or negotiate a long-term deal for a lesser amount. Copper is 27 years old and may want the security of a long-term deal between the max and supermax. However, she also just won Finals MVP and could name her price if she wants to.
Unless any of these players take a substantial discount or sign elsewhere, the Sky will likely lose DeShields and Dolson. DeShields is still young and has a ton of potential, even if it is growing late in her career to reach that potential. The market for wings this offseason is pretty weak as well, which means that DeShields will have options. A lot of teams are looking for a Dolson-type player who has enough size to slow dominant bigs but can play on the perimeter offensively. Of these two, DeShields is probably more likely to return since she is a restricted free agent.
With Evans and Hebard in the fold, the rest of the roster will likely have to be filled out with minimum (or close to minimum) contracts. Astou Ndour-Fall would be a great fit if she doesn’t find a market elsewhere. Lexie Brown could return, as well. The Sky also have their first-round draft to work with.
Perhaps this analysis is too focused on the present moment. If they try to retain their core, the Sky will almost certainly be worse on paper next season and they could hurt their long-term outlook as well. But something changes when teams win championships. Players come back more confident and, sometimes, are more likely to buy into the system. Coaches and front offices make bolder decisions, usually with the goal of immediate championships in mind. For better or worse, Chicago likely believes that they can sustain some roster attrition and still repeat as contenders. After the season that they had, I’d say that belief isn’t crazy. Furthermore, they will always have the rings from this season if everything goes belly up.
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