2021 Mock WNBA Free Agency Reactions
Evaluating the moves of all 12 teams
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Editors Note: Ben Dull joins us today from the Floor Game Newsletter for his thoughts on our 2021 Mock WNBA Free Agency podcast where he played the role of GM of the Dallas Wings and Las Vegas Aces.
Our first run at a mock WNBA free agency podcast is in the books. We should start with a thank you to Richard Cohen for bringing up the idea to the Her Hoop Stats team and everyone who participated for carving out a big chunk of time to make this happen.
I joined Richard and Gabe Ibrahim for a recap podcast which will go live tomorrow. After taking more time to reflect on the jam-packed two hours we spent simulating free agency, here are some more thoughts on how it went down. (A pure list of the signings and transactions can be found here.)
I’ll refer to Megan Gauer, the agent for all the WNBA players in the exercise, as Agent Gauer, and each GM by their last name as well. Remember that GMs were assigned two teams each. The predicted depth charts you’ll see for each team are very rough outlines just to paint a picture of each roster. We’re probably nearing the end of February in a ‘normal’ offseason in this hypothetical timeline; teams can still maneuver leading up to and after the draft.
Team-by-team reactions
Atlanta Dream (GM Aaron Barzilai)
Rough depth chart
PG: Chennedy Carter, Maite Cazorla
SG: Tiffany Hayes, Courtney Williams
SF: Betnijah Laney, Shekinna Stricklen, Mikayla Pivec
PF: Monique Billings
C: Elizabeth Williams, Kalani Brown, Brittany Brewer
Atlanta has 11 players right now plus the No. 3 overall pick. That’s pretty close to a final roster barring trades, additional signing of players we didn’t get to, and maybe a steal early in the second round. GM Barzilai didn’t have much maneuverability unless he explored some trades to find an offensive upgrade in the frontcourt. This can’t be a total rebuild, either, with the number of established players that they have under contract.
I don’t know what trades may have been explored with other teams. A more aggressive push for the likes of Candace Parker, Nneka Ogwumike, Natasha Howard, or Cheyenne Parker would have been worth the effort. A lot more time sure would have helped too, to possibly explore some trades the Dream might want to make as a result. They have to feel good about the talent on the perimeter, but that one glaring flaw will really set a low ceiling for what they can become offensively as they look to get back in the playoffs in 2021.
Chicago Sky (GM Clay Kallam)
Rough depth chart
PG: Courtney Vandersloot
SG: Allie Quigley, Kahleah Copper
SF: Diamond DeShields, Gabby Williams
PF: Azurá Stevens
C: Cheyenne Parker, Stefanie Dolson, Ruthy Hebard
The to-do list was going to be rather short for the Sky unless GM Kallam started trying to shake things up in a big way with some trade offers—an extremely difficult task in our short two-hour window. Re-signing Parker was the big priority and Chicago got it done with a three-year deal; I’m assuming that means we’ll see Parker as the full-time starting 5 with Dolson’s role being scaled back in 2021. Chicago appears to have juuust enough room left for their 2021 first rounder and one veteran at the minimum. Backup point guard is the big need to address.
Injuries and availability robbed the Sky of a chance to really get a close look at how good this group can be in the 2020 season. With one year remaining in this two-year window they propped open with their handling of the 2020 offseason, the pressure’s on to find out how this core might fare in a playoff series with a bunch of important decisions on the horizon next offseason.
Connecticut Sun (GM Barzilai)
Rough depth chart
PG: Jasmine Thomas, Natisha Hiedeman (assumed re-signing)
SG: Briann January
SF: DeWanna Bonner, Kaila Charles
PF: Alyssa Thomas
C: Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones, Beatrice Mompremier (assumed re-signing)
GM Barzilai took care of the big stuff, inking AT to a long-term deal and bringing back Jasmine Thomas. Long-term, you’ve got at least three more seasons of AT and Bonner, and the Sun can core Jonquel Jones next offseason if necessary. Nabbing Charles in the second round of last year’s draft looms pretty large in their future. It looks like Charles will really be a player for them, and they’ll be hoping to find another contributor with their two seconds in 2021. You’re basically looking at signing one more veteran at the minimum and rostering one of those picks to round out this 11-player roster for opening day.
Finding a big-time 3-point threat off the bench would have been nice, but I don’t see how you can re-sign your two starters and still find someone that would actually close games over January. I just don’t think that ideal exists. I do think using their sixth and final protected slot on Brionna Jones, strictly a backup 5 with Jonquel Jones back in the fold, was a step too far over keeping your options open, possibly for something similar to the kind of deal that netted them January last year.
Dallas Wings (GM Dull)
Rough depth chart
PG: Tyasha Harris, Moriah Jefferson
SG: Arike Ogunbowale, Marina Mabrey
SF: Victoria Vivians, Katie Lou Samuelson
PF: Satou Sabally, Astou Ndour
C: Bella Alarie
GM Pelton and I had agreed on the general framework of an Allisha Gray sign-and-trade for several days leading up to our recording. I knew the max offer sheet was coming. In a vacuum, matching that offer for Gray wasn’t a concern in the slightest. But when we already had about 40 percent of the cap tied up for two more seasons on three veterans, none of whom are seen as definite long-term starters at this point, I felt a need to consider Indiana’s offer. I think the room around the league for Dallas to move off of one of those contracts was going to dry up after this offseason.
I would understand the criticism that I’m giving too much weight to what might happen with cap space in the future when we already know that Gray is a really good player. But if my hunch is correct, our flexibility would be totally shot after this very brief window. So if that call comes to acquire a big name via free agency or a trade, I’d much prefer this outcome over possibly having to overpay to get to a similar place financially in the future when other teams would have all the leverage knowing exactly what I’m trying to do. Barring a trade offer that knocks our socks off the rest of the way, we’ve got these nine players and would plan on waiving Megan Gustafson to make room for our first rounders (Nos. 2, 4 and 5).
Indiana Fever (GM Kevin Pelton)
Rough depth chart
PG: Erica Wheeler, Julie Allemand, Kathleen Doyle
SG: Kelsey Mitchell, Sami Whitcomb
SF: Allisha Gray, Tiffany Mitchell, Kennedy Burke
PF: Lauren Cox, Kayla Thornton
C: Teaira McCowan, Isabelle Harrison
Big spender alert! GM Pelton really went for it with some of the bigger names initially but still managed to make some nice moves to complement the trio of recent lottery picks already on the roster. I would worry a tad about having six protected contracts for 2021, with five of those extending through 2022, especially when it seems to me only two of those players will (or should) be starters considering where the franchise is at right now.
It’s been a struggle at times in recent years for Indiana to get reliable shooting on the floor at positions 1 through 3. New additions Gray and Whitcomb really change that equation. The focus now can shift to finding out what the Fever have in that Cox-McCowan pairing with an improved perimeter rotation.
Las Vegas Aces (GM Dull)
Rough depth chart
PG: Kelsey Plum, Danielle Robinson
SG: Kayla McBride, María Conde, Jaylyn Agnew
SF: Angel McCoughtry, Jackie Young
PF: A’ja Wilson, Tianna Hawkins
C: Liz Cambage, Dearica Hamby
Re-signing Cambage was the first priority. There were some other big names in this free agent class, but once Agent Gauer made it clear in this hypothetical that Cambage was interested in returning, there wasn’t any hesitation in moving to bring back a top-five player. Signing Wilson to the extension was another no-brainer, and with more time we were also looking to sign Hamby to an extension.
McBride quickly became the most important figure. The dream scenario was to re-sign McBride below the max and somehow land Aerial Powers or Betnijah Laney with a big one-year offer. We struck out on the latter. Thankfully, though, we didn’t have to sweat it out with McBride, and we could even bump that one-year salary up a bit after whiffing on Plan A. We rebounded nicely by signing Hawkins. Her skill set really solidifies the frontcourt rotation. Conde and Agnew basically fell out of the sky for us. They might not end up playing very much, but that spot is exactly where we could use a young player that can shoot.
Los Angeles Sparks (GM Cohen)
Rough depth chart
PG: Chelsea Gray, Te’a Cooper
SG: Kristi Toliver
SF: Brittney Sykes
PF: Nneka Ogwumike
C: Candace Parker, Maria Vadeeva
The Sparks have more work to do filling out the rotation, not to mention the back end of the roster. But I really liked the move for L.A. to acquire that Phoenix first-round pick in the Anigwe trade. However, we may not like it quite as much if Vadeeva doesn’t come over at all in 2021. Frontcourt depth would then become a big, big concern. While they wrapped up that trade call, hopefully GM Cohen also thanked the Mercury for waiving Cooper last year, too. Filling out the roster would be even tougher without the inside track to re-sign her as a reserved player.
I left Marie Gülich, Tierra Ruffin-Pratt and restricted free agent Reshanda Gray off for now because it seems unlikely that the Sparks would be able to keep more than one of them. So even though L.A. is facing some questions about spots seven through nine, I can’t see any reason to question this chosen path for L.A. You can’t have everything.
Minnesota Lynx (GM Cohen)
Rough depth chart
PG: Crystal Dangerfield, Odyssey Sims, Rachel Banham
SG: Aerial Powers, Cecilia Zandalasini (assumed re-signing), Lexie Brown
SF: Napheesa Collier, Bridget Carleton
PF: Damiris Dantas, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan
C: Sylvia Fowles, Jessica Shepard
Before the GMs were assigned to specific teams, I had wondered about the Lynx as a Chelsea Gray destination. But GM Cohen obviously was right to look to re-sign Gray in L.A. at any cost, and the Lynx ended up adding Powers. I like that move to give them another trusted scoring option to turn to in a playoff environment who can also add value as a spot-up shooter next to some of their other big names. And even if Maya Moore were to return, they can just slide Collier up to the 4 on a full-time basis; Dantas could still log plenty of minutes in a super-sized Dearica Hamby-type bench role.
Their wing depth is very impressive with Carleton, Brown and Zandalasini (if she plays in the W in 2021). This configuration would also unlock an ideal bench unit for Sims to lead attacking a wide-open lane surrounded by four shooters. Even if you didn’t see this group as a 2021 title favorite, you have a ton of depth and versatility to how you can play with a pretty lofty ceiling with a healthy Fowles and the continued development of Collier and Dangerfield.
New York Liberty (GM Ibrahim)
Rough depth chart
PG: Sabrina Ionescu, Layshia Clarendon
SG: Asia Durr, Marine Johannès, Jazmine Jones
SF: Kia Nurse, Leaonna Odom, Megan Walker
PF: Amanda Zahui B., Jocelyn Willoughby
C: Chiney Ogwumike, Kiah Stokes, Kylee Shook, Han Xu
He tried. GM Ibrahim’s aggressive attempts to lure some superstars to New York were unsuccessful. Agent Gauer definitely has to give the Liberty an A+ as the go-to source of leverage to drive the price up as some contenders tried to get some key players to stay for less. That’s all said in jest, of course. You can’t really slam the Liberty because the biggest names opted to stay in winning situations. From New York’s perspective, you only need one yes to get the snowball rolling.
The Liberty essentially got to kick the can down the road for a year in terms of making some tougher decisions in finalizing the roster. That bill to consolidate will probably come due in reality a few months from now. We didn’t get to explore that very much in this exercise, where dozens of trades probably would have been thrown at GM Ibrahim. Adding restricted free agent Rebecca Allen and the No. 1 pick to the list above, they’re at 16 players, not to mention Steph Talbot, who I think could really help a team in a role similar to the one she had in 2018 with the Mercury.
Phoenix Mercury (GM Kallam)
Rough depth chart
PG: Skylar Diggins-Smith
SG: Bria Hartley, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
SF: Diana Taurasi, Sophie Cunningham
PF: Brianna Turner, Alanna Smith
C: Brittney Griner, Kristine Anigwe
GM Kallam won’t have much wiggle room here with four big contracts once Taurasi is included. Sitting at nine players right now, I’d guess you’re just trying to bring back Yvonne Turner and Kia Vaughn to put the finishing touches on this? They can’t start the season with 12 players as constructed and have already shipped out their first rounder. I wasn’t a fan of the trade to acquire Walker-Kimbrough in the first place and don’t agree with the price they paid to re-sign her here. Is Walker-Kimbrough a significant upgrade on Cunningham, a healthy Turner, or Shey Peddy? I don’t see it.
Now, I also will acknowledge that I don’t think they would have had the spending power to chase some of the more notable names instead for a big bench role. I didn’t like the Anigwe trade very much, either. Brianna Turner and Vaughn are better players, and you’ve already seen them in your system with Taurasi, Diggins-Smith and Hartley. The Mercury can’t keep punting away chances to build through the draft. But assuming they can bring back Vaughn first and possibly Yvonne Turner as well, you still have a shot if all of your core players are healthy.
Seattle Storm (GM Pelton)
Rough depth chart
PG: Sue Bird, Jordin Canada
SG: Jewell Loyd, Sydney Wiese
SF: Alysha Clark, Kitija Laksa
PF: Breanna Stewart, Ezi Magbegor
C: Natasha Howard, Mercedes Russell
I wouldn’t have done the Wiese trade in his shoes if sending out a first was the only way to do it. L.A. is going to be splitting hairs after re-signing their top three free agents; the Sparks shouldn’t have enough leverage to expect that kind of return. In fairness to GM Pelton, maybe he isn’t too high on Laksa’s ability to contribute right away, and we don’t know yet for certain on this timeline what Laksa’s 2021 availability will be.
Props to GM Pelton for making a real offer for Whitcomb (acting as Indiana) over one that might be more friendly to his other team. That $150,000 number is far too steep for the Storm to realistically consider after keeping their starting unit together. There are still some moves to make in rounding out the roster. But after retaining Bird, Howard and Clark, the Storm will be in position to defend their title.
Washington (GM Ibrahim)
Rough depth chart
PG: Natasha Cloud, Leilani Mitchell
SG: Ariel Atkins, Riquna Williams, Stella Johnson
SF: Elena Delle Donne, Kiara Leslie
PF: Tina Charles, Emma Meesseman, Candice Dupree
C: Myisha Hines-Allen, LaToya Sanders
Losing Powers was a tough blow. A really interesting part of Washington’s calculations centers around the possibility of losing Powers and how much they want to play big as opposed to having the option to do so. The Leilani Mitchell contract last offseason was a little confusing at the time: they drew a line in the sand with Kristi Toliver, a much better player, on a third year, then responded by giving a two-year protected contract to an older player who...might not close as many games when this whole team is together? Perhaps moving Mitchell from the jump could have given the Mystics more breathing room in negotiations with Powers, who absolutely would be playing big minutes in the fourth quarter of playoff games in 2021 and beyond.
On the issue of playing big or small, I do think Leslie will have a really solid two-way 2021 campaign, especially offensively where she’ll be able to step into all the spot-up 3-pointers she can handle playing around Cloud, Delle Donne, Charles, Meesseman and Hines-Allen. Circling back to Powers, their trios on the perimeter in more traditional lineups just won’t be as potent. But it won’t be the end of the world when the alternative is letting Hines-Allen, Charles and Sanders compete for that spot next to Meesseman and Delle Donne in crunch time.
Some final big-picture takeaways
We didn’t see a ton of movement in the grand scheme of things. I don’t find that too surprising. The top free agents are already in good situations! This isn’t to say I’m banking on a quiet offseason. It’s just that a whole chain of new transactions would naturally unfold if one of those bigger dominos actually falls. We never got to step one for something like that to happen.
The Sparks are my biggest winner on a team level just to have kept the big three plus Brittney Sykes. Sami Whitcomb is probably the big individual/agent winner. Whitcomb has proven to be a good player in meaningful playoff settings, but it’s not like Indiana is signing her to supplant Kelsey Mitchell. That’s a really nice payday for a backup shooting guard. As I stated in Washington’s section, I think the Mystics needed a bit more of a sense of urgency to try to keep Aerial Powers because of how much she can help them in 2021 and throughout the championship window they’ll hope to keep open for another three or four years.
I had also hoped for a little more trade buzz. But that can cut both ways. It’s easy to be completely in love with your team before the actual games start. Teams also need to continually look to improve. I can only say so much on the subject, though, without knowing what the other GMs discussed beforehand.
Finally, I really struggle with the idea of trying to determine how realistic this exercise was. There was ample interest in the biggest names, but the lure of familiarity and likely winning situations clearly carried the most weight. I already highlighted a few moves that I probably would not have made, but if anything, would my one move as Dallas be the one most likely to come under fire? Probably? Who knows.
It’s a player’s league, and every offseason will be driven by the desires of a select few to re-sign with their current team or explore, possibly with force, their options elsewhere. This was a fun and interesting exercise to go through, but as always, I’m even more fascinated to see how the real thing plays out as the calendar turns to 2021.
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