2021 NCAA Women’s Final Four Preview
Previewing Friday's Final Four matchups + our Her Hoop Stats model's predictions
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The stage for the Final Four is set with the three one-seeds emerging out of the Alamo, River Walk, and Hemisfair Regions. The Mercado Region, however, shook things up with both top-seeded NC State and two-seed Texas A&M falling in the Sweet Sixteen. The three-seed, Arizona, emerged with the program’s first-ever Final Four appearance to face UConn on the right side of the bracket. On the left side, South Carolina and Stanford will meet for a spot in the national championship game.
We’re breaking down what you need to know about each match-up. If you’re looking for more pregame analysis ahead of tip off, join us for the Her Hoop Stats Pregame Show, live on Twitter at 5:20 pm ET on Friday. You can also listen to our latest Courtside podcast with Christy Winters-Scott and Gabe Ibrahim.
Alamo Region #1 Stanford vs Hemisfair Region #1 South Carolina
(Friday 6:00 pm ET, ESPN)
Path to the Final Four
Stanford started off their tournament run with a handy 87-44 win over Utah Valley in the opening round. From there, they went on to face Oklahoma State in the round of 32. The Cowgirls, including defensive player of the year candidate Natasha Mack, gave Stanford almost all they could handle and kept the game close throughout. The Cardinal emerged with an 11-point victory and went on to smother Missouri State in the Sweet 16. On Tuesday, Stanford opened up their Elite Eight matchup against Louisville with some uncharacteristic shooting struggles. After trailing at the half, the Cardinal outscored the Cardinals 52-25 in the final 20 minutes. The win especially showcased Stanford’s depth, with Ashten Prechtel coming off the bench to add 16 points in as many minutes on a perfect 6-6 performance from the floor.
South Carolina also began their run with a strong win over Mercer in the opening round of the tournament. The Gamecocks continued that trend with a convincing win over Oregon State in the second round, moving on to face Georgia Tech in the Sweet 16. The Yellow Jackets kept it close for the first 20 minutes, but a strong third quarter from South Carolina ultimately sealed the win. In the Elite Eight, the Gamecocks dominated Texas, who upset both UCLA and Maryland, with a suffocating defensive performance. They held the Longhorns to just 34 points in the game, including no points in the fourth quarter - the first-ever scoreless quarter recorded in the tournament since the women’s game adopted quarters in 2016.
Breaking down the matchup
Previewing this matchup, it makes the sense to work from the inside out. At the core of South Carolina is first-team All-American and national player of the year candidate Aliyah Boston, who is easily one of, if not the best center in the women’s college game. She is one of 40 players in the country that averages a double-double per game, and the Gamecocks’ offense is at its best when the ball frequently runs through Boston in the paint. Beyond Boston, South Carolina likes to take the ball inside at all positions and drive in the paint frequently. The Gamecocks have one of the lowest three-point rates in the country, scoring just 17 percent of their points this season from deep. That doesn’t mean they can’t knock them down from beyond the arc, though. Destanni Henderson shoots over 40 percent on the season, and leading scorer Zia Cooke is a close second at nearly 38 percent.
On the flip side, Stanford has one of the best interior defenses in the country this season. They’ve held their opponents to shooting 35.6 percent on two-point field goal attempts (second in the country) and block over 15 percent of their shot attempts inside (seventh in the nation). The Cardinal doesn’t have a dominant force inside like Boston, but instead boasts an incredible amount of length in their lineup between Haley Jones, Lexie Hull and Cameron Brink - and their depth off the bench in Fran Belibi and Ashten Prechtel.
On the offensive end, Stanford excels from the three-point line, scoring over a third of their points from deep at a clip of 38 percent as a team (sixth in the nation). Anchored by senior guard Kiana Williams, the Cardinal is 50-107 (48 percent) from beyond the arc so far in the tournament. Eight players on their roster have shot over 34 percent from deep this season, which speaks to Stanford’s biggest offensive strength - they can go deep into their rotation and you still have to guard all five positions on the floor.
South Carolina does a decent job of running teams off the three-point line and has only allowed one team to hit more than eight shots from deep against them this season. The Gamecocks have held their opponents to 0.84 points per scoring attempt this season (eighth in the nation). Looking at these two defenses, for as good as their offenses are, don’t be surprised if these two teams end up in a bit of a rock fight for the win.
Her Hoop Stats’ Predictions
Our Her Hoop Stats ratings rank Stanford as the #3 team in the country and South Carolina as the #5 team in the country. This is about as close to a 50/50 game as it gets, with our modeling giving Stanford a 52 percent chance of coming out on top.
Predicted Score: Stanford 67.9 - South Carolina 67.3
Predicted Margin: Stanford by +0.6
Lobo’s Look
For more in-depth stats comparisons for Stanford and South Carolina, check out their Lobo’s Look.
River Walk Region #1 UConn vs Mercado Region #3 Arizona
(Friday 9:30 pm ET, ESPN)
Path to the Final Four
UConn cruised through the opening two rounds of the tournament, with convincing wins over both High Point and Syracuse. The Huskies then moved on to face Iowa in the Sweet 16, pitting two of the nation’s best freshmen - UConn’s Paige Bueckers and Iowa’s Caitlin Clark - against each other. The Hawkeyes hung around with UConn for nearly 35 minutes, before the Huskies inflated their lead down the stretch. UConn then went on to face Baylor - the #4 team in our Her Hoop Stats ratings - in the Elite Eight, which was an instant classic with a narrow 69-67 victory.
Similar to the other three Final Four teams, Arizona kicked off their tournament coasting to a victory in the opening round. The Wildcats then grinded out a win over BYU in the second round setting up a meeting with the two-seed Texas A&M. Aari McDonald gave A&M more than they could handle in the Sweet 16, and Arizona emerged with an impressive 15-point victory. On the flip side of the region, Indiana upset the one-seed, NC State, to meet the Wildcats in the Elite Eight. The game was tight most of the way through, but Arizona was able to open up a sizable lead in the fourth quarter to earn their first Final Four trip.
Breaking down the matchup
The battle in this one starts in the backcourt, particularly with Arizona’s Aari McDonald. McDonald leads the Wildcats in points, assists, and steals, and finishes over 35 percent of Arizona’s possessions. She’s incredibly quick and can score the ball in a variety of ways - and has been tabbed by UConn head coach Geno Auriemma has the hardest guard matchup they’ve faced this season. She’s also coming off of two straight 30+ point performances to propel the Wildcats past Texas A&M and Indiana and into the Final Four.
McDonald also sets the tone for Arizona defensively, and the Wildcats excel on that end of the court, ranking sixth in Her Hoop Stats’ defensive ratings. They frequently deploy a full-court press which trips up their opponents. They come away with the steal on over 13 percent of their defensive possessions. This could create an interesting matchup, with UConn relying on a freshman in Paige Bueckers to handle the ball frequently. However, all season long Bueckers, who was named the AP Player of the Year on Wednesday, has shown poise beyond her years. Still, it’s likely to be one of the toughest defensive matchups she’s faced this season.
The Huskies’ backcourt, however, also boasts Christyn Williams, who has tallied over 20 points in each of the last two games. While Bueckers’ mid-range game steals the show, Williams is lethal when she drives in the lane. Both are a part of the UConn offense that leads the country in field goal percentage and can hurt you from all five positions.
However, it’s the inside battle where UConn will have the biggest edge in this one. Olivia Nelson-Ododa and freshman Aaliyah Edwards stand at 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-3 respectively, presenting a challenge in the post for Arizona’s Trinity Baptiste and Cate Reese. The Wildcats haven’t been particularly strong on the glass this season, ranking right around the 50th percentile for total rebounds per game. Early on in the tournament, UConn was able to use their size advantage to dominate in the paint and will likely look to capitalize on that once again against Arizona.
Her Hoop Stats’ Predictions
Our Her Hoop Stats ratings rank UConn as the #1 team in the country and Arizona as the #21 team in the country. The Huskies are pretty heavily favored in this matchup, with our modeling giving them a 90 percent chance of coming out on top.
Predicted Score: UConn 70.3 - Arizona 55.1
Predicted Margin: UConn by +15.3
Lobo’s Look
For more in-depth stats comparisons for UConn and Arizona, check out their Lobo’s Look.
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