2021 Reflections and 2022 Forecast for the Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury got close to getting their fourth title. Can they get back there next year?
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The Phoenix Mercury had another season marred by injuries, but it wasn’t enough to keep them down when it mattered. The team advanced to the WNBA Finals. They couldn’t get it done for their fourth title, but it was still an impressive showing for a team that hadn’t reached the finals since 2014.
By the numbers
19-13 (.594), No. 5 seed in the playoffs, lost in the Finals to the Chicago Sky
Points scored: 82.1 (5th), Points allowed: 79.5 (4th), Margin per game: +2.6 (5th)
Offensive rating: 102.7 (3rd), Defensive rating: 98.9 (6th), Net rating: 3.7 (5th)
2021 Synopsis
Like last season, the Mercury went without rookies while paying out several big contracts. That meant a short bench with 11 players instead of the league maximum of 12. Carrying the minimum number of players on their roster had an impact on their depth at several points in the season.
Veteran guard Diana Taurasi missed half the season, appearing in just 16 of the team’s 32 regular season games. Bria Hartley did not play until Sept. 4. She appeared in just six regular season games. Then came the postseason when the team lost Kia Nurse in game four of the semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces after just one minute of play. The team advanced, but they had to go with a smaller lineup substituting the 5-foot-7 Shey Peddy for the 6-foot Nurse.
It was still the best season the Mercury have had since seven years ago when they last won a title. A lot of that came down to a strong showing by Brittney Griner. Griner was edged out as league MVP by Jonquel Jones, but Griner ended up being the one playing in the final games of the year. Griner ended her season averaging 20.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.9 blocks per game. Her Player Efficiency Rating (PER) was 28.4.
The season ended on a major question, though. Would 39-year-old Taurasi return for another run?
Cap situation by Richard Cohen
Assuming no trades or retirements, the Mercury have very little room to work with this offseason. Those four big deals at the top of their cap sheet eat up a lot of space.
Let's assume for now that they keep the seven listed above under contract for 2022. That would leave them $246,938 in cap space for at least four roster spots. Four players at the absolute minimum--so not even the veteran minimum for players with 3+ years in the WNBA, but only players with 0-2 years--cost $241,884. So none of the four could even be vet minimums, the absolute base cost of Nurse, Peddy, Sophie Cunningham, or Alanna Smith, among others. Those players could re-sign for the minimum and then beat out Megan Walker or Kia Vaughn, but they can't be additions on top of the current seven. Nurse’s ACL tear in the playoffs means she may not be signing anywhere for 2022.
The Mercury may well release Vaughn despite their comfort with her as a backup post. The difference between her $110,000 salary and a minimum deal would give them at least a little room to maneuver and retain/sign some players to fill out their roster. Otherwise, they're going to be searching for young options to compete for those spots. The only other somewhat plausible option that could create cap space for the Mercury would be a Taurasi retirement, which no one in Phoenix wants to see. However, if she did call it quits, they would immediately open up the supermax space that she currently occupies, creating a lot more options in terms of chasing free agents or re-signing their own.
2022 Forecast
A lot of the Mercury’s future hinges on the decision Taurasi makes. There are positives regardless of her choice, but there are negatives to both possibilities, as well.
Phoenix has not been planning for the future. They have not kept a rookie in two years and didn’t even draft until the third round last season when they took--and released--Ciera Johnson. Before the 2020 “Wubble” season, when they released all of their draftees, head coach Sandy Brondello said that they were comfortable with the players they drafted the year before being the future. Of those players, only Briana Turner is assured to be back for a fourth season.
If Taurasi returns, that puts the squeeze on the team to find some youth on cheap contracts. If she doesn’t, that means losing the No. 1 scorer in the history of the WNBA. Can the team withstand that loss and still win? Can they nurse her through the season without losing her to injury?
A loss of Taurasi also means a loss of leadership. While Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith will remain, no one doubts who the leader of the Mercury is.
Taurasi coming back means being prepared if she’s unable to play for the entire season. She has not been able to do so since 2018. With a short bench caused by salary cap considerations, the ability to get through a portion of the season with even fewer players will continue to be a challenge for the Mercury.
The Mercury might be the most difficult team in the league to forecast because of how much depends on the decision of one player. Regardless of her decision, it’s going to be an uphill climb to get back to the WNBA Finals if they can’t find enough quality players to fit under the salary cap. They went all-in on getting another title before Taurasi retired and they got close this year. The question now is whether there will be repercussions for those choices.
At the very least, if the Mercury struggle, they can remember that the last two times the team ended up in the lottery they were rewarded with Taurasi and Griner.
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