2021 WNBA Playoffs - Race to the Final Spots
Four teams are in the hunt for the final playoff spots. Who will clinch the playoff tickets and who will miss out?
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The 2021 WNBA Playoffs begin in just under two weeks on September 23rd. Six teams have already clinched their playoff spots. (Connecticut Sun, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm, Phoenix Mercury and the Chicago Sky). It’s going to be an interesting finish with four teams currently vying for lost last two spots.
The teams that are currently in the race for the final spots are the Dallas Wings, the New York Liberty, the Washington Mystics and the Los Angeles Sparks. With all four of these teams, the WNBA schedule as well as tie breakers will play a big part in determining which teams make it into the playoffs. As of this writing, the Dallas Wings and the New York Liberty sit in 7th and 8th spot respectively.
Let’s take a closer look at each team individually to determine who will end up sneaking in the playoffs and who will just miss out.
Dallas Wings
The Dallas Wings are in the driver's seat for now in terms of being in prime playoff positioning. They sit in the 7th spot and have either a one game or two game lead over the Liberty, Sparks and the Mystics. However, they still do need to win. They have been without Satou Sabally since July 11th and is out with an Achilles injury. Their remaining schedule is interesting because they will face the Liberty and the Sparks, two teams currently below them in the playoff picture, but they still play the Aces to round out their schedule. If they go winless, their record will be 12-20 and may just end up missing the playoffs if the other three teams step up. The prediction is that they go 2-1 and win games against the likes of the Liberty and Sparks and Aces. If they do just that, they will finish with a record of 14-18 and that should be enough to advance to the playoffs. They have the tiebreakers over the Sparks in which they lead the series 2-0 and the Mystics in which they won 2-1. The only tiebreaker they do not have is against the New York Liberty. The Liberty lead the series 2-0, but the Wings have a chance to control their own fate when these two teams meet one final time.
New York Liberty
The New York Liberty are struggling. They have lost six games in a row and nine of their last 10 games after starting the season 5-1. They currently sit in the 8th and final playoff spot because of the Mystics and Sparks losses more than their own efforts. The Liberty only have three games left on their schedule. They play the Wings, the Sun and the Mystics. They do hold the tiebreaker over the Dallas Wings. It may not be enough however. They split the season series with the Sparks 1-1. They also have split the series with the Mystics and would need to win the final game over the Mystics to win the tiebreaker and sneak into the playoffs spot. How they play against the Mystics should determine whether or not the Liberty have what it takes to make it into the playoffs, but with how they're playing recently, there’s a chance it may not happen. The prediction is they go 1-2 and win a game against the Wings and lose to the Mystics and the Sun. Their record would be 12-20 and may end up just missing out on the playoffs.
Washington Mystics
The Washington Mystics currently sit just outside the WNBA playoffs picture at 9th place in the WNBA standings. They have dealt with injuries to their superstar Elena Delle Donne as well as Tina Charles recently. They also were without Emma Meeseman who sat out this season. Tina Charles is back for the final games of the regular season. They have a solid chance to sneak into the playoffs. They have 4 games left to play. The Dream, the Sky, the Liberty and the Lynx. They lost the tiebreaker against the Dallas Wings and split the series with the Liberty and have a chance to win the season series in their final few games left in the regular season. They also hold the tiebreaker over the Sparks because they won the season series 2-1. The prediction is that they go 3-1 and win games against the Dream, Liberty and the Lynx but lose to the Sky. Their record would be 13-19 and would sneak by the New York Liberty to be the final team to advance to the WNBA Playoffs.
Los Angeles Sparks
The Los Angeles Sparks, like the Liberty, are also in a funk. They’ve lost 5 games in a row. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. They currently sit in the 10th spot in the WNBA standings. They have four games left to play. They play the Sun, the Storm, the Dream and the Wings. The Sparks are in danger of missing out on the playoffs because they do not hold any tiebreakers by head-to-head record over the Wings, Mystics, or Liberty, though they are currently a half-game up on New York for the 2nd-level tiebreaker in a two-way tie based on their records against teams that are 0.500 or better. Still, the situation does not bode well for Los Angeles if the final spot comes down to tiebreakers. The prediction is that they go 1-3 with a win over the Dream but lose to the Sun, Storm and the Wings. Their record would be 11-21 and the Sparks would miss out on the playoffs. (Editor’s Note: this paragraph has been updated to reflect that Los Angeles does have the advantage in the second tiebreaker rule as of the morning of September 8, 2021).
In conclusion, the prediction is that the Dallas Wings and the Washington Mystics make the playoffs and the New York Liberty as well as the Los Angeles Sparks miss out. It hasn’t been easy for any of these final four teams because they have dealt with losing streaks, losing key major players, youth, all season long. But, two of these teams will have an opportunity to try to upset the top teams when they clinch a playoff spot and play the spoiler role. It will be fun to see which teams do end up clinching those two final playoff spots.
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