2022-23 ACC Preview, Part 1
The first game tips off in just 12 days!
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Interest in women’s basketball is on a steeeeeeep rise, which we here at Her Hoop Stats love to see. The viewership for the 2022 FIBA women’s basketball world championship final was up 227% over the 2018 iteration. Reminder: the October 1 game started at 2 a.m. ET.
With that in mind, I decided to aim my ACC preview a little towards new women’s basketball fans and ask each of the league’s 15 head coaches what 1-2 things they’d want a fan tuning into their team for the first time to look for or notice.
Not only will new fans be looking out for WHAT to watch when they tune in, but even before that, many will want to know WHY they should watch. Before we get into the team-by-team previews, let’s answer that question for the ACC as a whole.
The title of ESPN’s women’s basketball preview focused on the question “Is the ACC or SEC the best league in women's college basketball?” And, while two of three panelists ultimately selected the SEC, all three noted big reasons why people should tune in to the ACC. Charlie Creme (who picked the SEC) said that the ACC “might have the most compelling conference race,” while M.A. Voepel (ditto) commented that “there are so many intriguing matchups to watch.” Alexa Philippou, the writer who picked the ACC, did so because while the SEC has the defending champ in South Carolina, she believes that “ the ACC will prove to be way deeper by the time all is said and done.”
The ACC’s coaches agree about how deep the league will be this season. More than one noted that the champion this year might have two-plus losses (UNC head coach Courtney Banghart thinks that number might be as high as four), while Notre Dame head coach Niele Ivey thinks that, a year after having eight in the NCAA Tournament, the league has a solid chance to get eight to ten in.
There’s another pair of subplots to watch in the conference, namely the eight intraconference transfers and the four new head coaches. First, a breakdown of the eight players who stayed in the ACC but are in new jerseys for the 2022-23 season.
Second, the four new coaches are as follows, with their 2021-22 positions in parentheses: Florida State’s Brooke Wyckoff (FSU assistant), Syracuse’s Felisha Legette-Jack (Buffalo HC), Virginia’s Amaka Agugua-Hamilton (Missouri State HC), Wake Forest’s Megan Gebbia (American HC).
Now, onto the team-by-team breakdowns.
Last season: 21-12 overall, 10-8 in ACC; Third Round WNIT
This season: Picked to finish 13th
“I hope that I'm going to be really proud of our amount of assists we have this year and our number of successful offensive possessions. So I think our scoring percentage, I think would be good. And then our rebounding. Those are the three categories that I really want to be really efficient, that is assists, scoring offense and rebounding.” - Head Coach Joanna Bernabei-McNamee (fifth season)
Last season, Boston College did pretty darn well in most categories related to “successful offensive possessions,” starting with the fact that the Eagles scored 72.1 points per game, which ranked them in the top 10% nationally, while their 15.6 assists per game ranked 27th. They were also in the top 33 nationally in field-goal percentage (20th), two-point percentage (28th), and effective field-goal percentage (33rd). While their 3-point shooting was not quite as strong, it was still in the top 75.
In addition to reducing opponents’ scoring opportunities, success on the offensive glass is a solid way to up your scoring. The Eagles excelled at that last season, pulling down offensive rebounds on 36.5% of misses, 38th-best in the country. In turn, Boston College opponents averaged only 22.4 defensive rebounds per game, the 26th-fewest.
That said, it’s a new season, and HALF the Eagles’ roster from last year is gone, including the only two players, Taylor Soule and Cameron Swartz, who scored in double figures last season. BC brings in five freshmen (including ESPNHoopGurlz No. 88 recruit Ally Carman) and is one of only three ACC schools with zero incoming transfers. In addition to bringing in so many newbies, the Eagles’ most important returning player is only a sophomore. That would be Maria Gakdeng, who led the team in shooting and blocks last season as a freshman, ranking top-50 nationally in both categories. In short, this team has a lot of room for growth and could surprise some people.
Non-conference game to watch: BC will take on three 2022 NCAA Tournament participants in UAlbany, Stephen F. Austin, and Ohio State. We’re going to go with the game against the Buckeyes as the one to watch. Lucky for the young Eagles, the game is at home in Conte Forum. We talked about the high roster turnover for the Eagles, but the two teams had some similar strengths last year, including nearly identical two-point field goal percentages.
Last season: 10-21 overall, 3-15 in ACC
This season: Picked to finish 12th
“...this is harder to measure, but I hope that our vibe is one that you can really feel, you know, the energy, the passion, the connection. So I think that our style of play… if there's a stat maybe… some of those pace indicators that would probably coincide with a team that really enjoys each other really has an upbeat, collective personality and just really enjoys being on the court together and competing together…” - Head Coach Amanda Butler (fifth season)
Last season, the Clemson Tigers were in the top third nationally in estimated possessions per 40 minutes, the stat also known as pace. However, they ranked near the bottom in assists, which one could argue also has a lot to do with playing together. Their 10.5 assists per game ranked in the bottom 15% of the country, while their 44.2% assisted shot rate was 12th-worst.
Clemson’s all-everything (scoring, rebounding, assists, steals) leader, Delicia Washington, graduated after last season, but Amari Robinson, the team’s second-leading scorer and leading offensive rebounder, is back. The Tigers also have help on the way in graduate transfer (and last year’s Elon team MVP) Brie Perpignan, who ranked 22nd overall last year in assists, dishing out 5.5 per contest. Perpignan, who also ranked in the top 3% nationally last year in points per game and the top 6% in steals per game, should be a valuable addition across the board. Clemson also adds the No. 15-ranked recruit in the ESPNHoopGurlz ratings and 2022 Michigan Miss Basketball Ruby Whitehorn, who is one of two freshmen on the ACC Newcomer Watch List.
Non-conference game to watch: Clemson will take on four teams who made the 2022 NCAA Tournament: Arkansas, Charlotte, Kansas State, and South Carolina. Between South Carolina being the defending national champions and an in-state rival, the game against the Gamecocks is the easy choice here. Washington had seven points in the Tigers’ loss last year to the Gamecocks, while Perpignan had eight when her former team faced them.
Last season: 17-13 overall, 7-11 in ACC play
This season: Picked to finish 7th
“Well, hopefully we're playing at a fast pace. You know, I want the game to be exciting. That's not my number one thing I want to win the game, but you do hope that it's exciting, it’s fast-paced. We want to be disruptive defensively. You know, like you mentioned we want to share the ball… Honestly, when people watch us play, I want people that do hoop, even if you just play ball like on Tuesdays at the Y, I want you to think ‘I’d like to play with them…. I wish I could play with them.’ Meaning like I want to play with them on my team. Because I want it to be fun. And I want our players to have fun.” Head Coach Kara Lawson (third season)
In Lawson’s first full season in Durham (the Blue Devils elected to cancel the remainder of their 2020-21 season in December 2020 over COVID-19 concerns), Duke was middling at pace. No, really. The Blue Devils were 175th out of 356 teams, only three slots above being dead in the middle. They played 18 games at a pace of 70 or worse and went 9-9 in those games. However, in the games they played at a pace of 70.5 or better, they went 8-4. That’s a pretty impressive improvement.
As for being disruptive defensively, Duke only allowed assists on 46.1% of its opponents’ baskets, 13th-best nationally. Possibly the biggest, and definitely the easiest one to determine “at a glance” for how a team did defensively, is how many points they allowed. Duke gave up an average of 62.2 points per game last season. In the 16 games they allowed 63 or more points, they went 7-9. In the 14 they allowed 61 or fewer? 10-4.
While all of those things are solid indicators for how Duke (or any team, to be honest) can accomplish the “number one thing” Lawson wants to do, win, the Blue Devils will be trying to do it this season with a vastly different roster. There are eight new additions to Duke’s roster. Duke does return its two leading scorers, sophomore Shayeann Day-Wilson and senior Celeste Taylor, but, as Lawson noted, the Blue Devils “graduated a big part of our frontcourt.” The Blue Devils will count on a trio of transfers to fill that void: a pair from Oregon State in Kennedy Brown and Taya Corosdale, and Mia Heide from Tulane. All three ranked in the top 6% in blocks, and all three also ranked in the top 10% in either offensive or defensive rebounds per game. In addition, Duke adds two top-50 ESPNHoopGurlz recruits in Ashlon Jackson (No. 16) and Shay Bollin (No. 33).
Non-conference game to watch: Duke will face either two or three 2022 NCAA Tournament teams. They’re guaranteed to face UConn and FGCU, and there’s a chance they’ll face Iowa when they head to Portland over Thanksgiving for the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. We’re going to cheat a little and say that both games in the PKL tournament are the biggest ones. Not only will both be nationally televised, but UConn is the reigning national runner-up and Iowa returns all five starters from an offense that topped the nation in HHS offensive rating. A game against Oregon State, Duke’s other potential opponent at the PKL tournament would have less national luster. However, it would be a matchup of Brown and Corosdale against their former team, so it’d no doubt get plenty of attention from both Beaver and Blue Devil faithful.
Last season: 17-14 overall, 10-8 in ACC; NCAA Tournament First Four
This season: Picked to finish 9th
“I think there will be a pace-and-space style of offense that's hopefully exciting for fans to watch and for our players to play…” Head Coach Brooke Wyckoff (first official season, although she served as acting head coach during the 2020-21 one)
Florida State only had one player last season average double figures in scoring, Morgan Jones, and she transferred to Louisville in the offseason. Despite that single double-figure performer, the Seminoles were in the middle as a team, points per game-wise, and were in the top sixth nationally in field-goal percentage. Eight of the 14 Seminoles from last season are gone, but they return their best shooter, percentage-wise, in sophomore Makayla Timpson.
As for the pace-and-space that Wyckoff mentioned, if the Seminoles want to pick up the pace, there’s almost nowhere to go but up. They ranked just outside the bottom third last season in pace (228th/356). While, of course, the ability to push and distribute the ball is more complicated than just one stat, a player’s ability to distribute the ball can help their team speed up the offense. The good news for FSU is that one of its six returners is its best distributor from last season, sophomore O’Mariah Gordon. In addition, the Seminoles add Kentucky transfer Jazmine Massengill, whose 4.7 assists per game ranked 55th nationally last year, and freshman Ta’Niya Latson, the 14th-ranked recruit in the nation, according to ESPNHoopGurlz, and one of two freshmen on the ACC Newcomer Watch List.
Non-conference game to watch: The Seminoles will play two 2022 NCAA Tournament participants, UConn and Florida, and we’re going to give the nod to the Sunshine State rivalry with the Gators. FSU will be looking to avenge last year’s 14-point loss in Gainesville, which broke a five-game Noles winning streak. Both teams are replacing their leading scorer – Jones for the Seminoles, and Florida’s Kiara Smith, who was one of only seven players last season to average at least 14.6 points, 4.5 assists, and 2.2 steals.
Last season: 21-11 overall, 11-7 in ACC; NCAA Tournament First Round
This season: Picked to finish 8th
“Well, I think one of the things in the last three years, we've been more of a defensive-oriented team, and we're always going to be strong on the defensive end… But we're trying to pick up the pace; we're trying to now get up and down the floor more [to] get more shots, more points per possession, speed it up a little bit… Instead of using 20-25 seconds in the shot clock. So it's a little bit of a different style we're trying to incorporate, and hopefully we can do it successfully.” - Head Coach Nell Fortner (fourth season)
Fortner said that she demands strength on the defensive end, and her teams deliver. In her three seasons as the head coach in Atlanta, the Yellow Jackets have been in the top 32 (out of 340+ qualified teams) in HHS Defensive Rating. Last season, Georgia Tech ranked 21st, and, unsurprisingly, given that spot, landed in the top 10% in nearly every major defensive metric. That includes top-10 rankings in defensive rebounding rate, opponent two-point percentage, and opponent points per scoring attempt. A lot of those defensive numbers came courtesy of two-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year Lorela Cubaj, whose 9.1 defensive rebounds per game ranked second nationally. Cubaj has graduated, and while Georgia Tech will have to work to replace her defensive numbers, it does sound like Fortner is excited to pick up the pace a little on the other end.
To be polite, if she wants her team to play faster, there’s nowhere to go but up. The Yellow Jackets had the country’s 19th-slowest pace last season and have been in the bottom 35 in all three of Fortner’s seasons at the helm. The other glaring improvement Georgia Tech needs to make on the offensive end is at the free-throw line. The Yellow Jackets were among the 48 worst teams in the country last season in free-throw percentage at 65.9%. Even as they struggled from the line, the Yellow Jackets didn’t give opponents many chances to get there either, committing just 13.3 fouls per game, the 17th-fewest nationally. Georgia Tech’s best category on offense was its 65.7% assisted shot rate, which ranked 12th. Unfortunately, both of the Yellow Jackets’ leading distributors from last season graduated in Cubaj and Lotta-Maj Lahtinen.
Helping to replace those contributions will be incoming transfers Bianca Jackson from Florida State and Cameron Swartz from Boston College, and four freshmen, including ESPNHoopGurlz No. 24 Tonie Morgan.
Non-conference game to watch: Georgia Tech will face between three and six participants in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, with definite matchups against Belmont, Georgia, and USF, and possible ones against Baylor, Michigan, and Villanova, depending on how the Gulf Coast Showcase pans out. While Georgia Tech’s match-up with USF will be an interesting test of the pace pick-up Fortner is hoping to implement, we’re going to give the nod to the matchup with in-state rival Georgia. Tech pulled out a one-point win in Athens last season, so the Bulldogs will be looking for revenge. Plus, this should be an excellent defensive match-up. Georgia ranked 11th last year in HHS Defensive Rating, 10 slots ahead of Tech’s strong showing.
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