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Last season: 29-5 overall, 16-2 in ACC; NCAA Final Four
This season: Picked to finish 1st, received 31/60 1st place votes
“You know, it's one of the things that we've actually talked about for years. You know, even when I go out in our community and speak, I just encourage people to come watch us. And if they haven't been before, just come one time. [Because] normally once they show up, they're really impressed with the athleticism, the talent, how well we move. It's high-quality basketball, so it's not just one thing, it's just not the way we shoot, the way we rebound. It's all of it.” Head Coach Jeff Walz (16th season)
The Cardinals were top-eight in all three HHS Rating categories, which gives you a pretty good indicator that they do, in fact, play “high-quality basketball” (not that anyone was really debating Walz’s assertion). Another indicator, of course, is the fact that they were among the last four teams standing last season, losing in the national semifinals to eventual champion South Carolina. They had the seventh-best winning percentage in the country last year, and the 10th-best margin of victory, further indicating their dominant play. The Cardinals’ 45.5% field goal percentage was also 10th last year, and they were one of just six squads who shot at least 45% overall, 49% from two, 35% from three, and dished out at least 15 assists a game. Add in 10 or more steals a game, and Louisville stands alone.
Defensively, besides being No. 6 in HHS defensive rating, you really only need one stat to show the disruptive defense the Cardinals play. Their 0.55 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio was eighth-best nationally. If you add in their block rate of 12.1%, only one other team hit both marks (Norfolk State).
Defense is the side of the ball the Cardinals most need to reload, as Emily Engstler, the team leader in steals, rebounds, and blocks, graduated after last season. The good news for Louisville is that not only are all four of the Cardinals’ incoming freshmen ESPNHoopGurlz top-100 recruits, they’re welcoming two transfers who put up the numbers last season that show they are capable of filling that gap. First is one of eight intraconference transfers: Morgan Jones from Florida State, who averaged a block per game last season as well as enough rebounds to end up in the top third nationally in all three rebounds per game categories. The second is Utah Valley transfer Josie Williams, one of only three players in the nation to average at least four offensive rebounds per game, eight defensive rebounds per game, 12 total rebounds per game, and 0.8 blocks per game. You might have heard of the other two: Aneesah Morrow and Aliyah Boston.
Non-conference game to watch: Louisville will face between seven and nine teams who made the 2022 NCAA Tournament, with two depending on how the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament shakes out. The three most tantalizing are the matchups with Morrow and DePaul, Belmont, and Ohio State. I’m going to give the edge to the matchup with the Buckeyes. Ohio State is returning both of its leading scorers from last season in Taylor Mikesell and Jacy Sheldon. In addition, the Buckeyes have similar strengths to the Cardinals, ranking eighth in field goal percentage. Further, while opponent assist-to-turnover ratio is Louisville’s highest-ranked stat, Ohio State’s 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 21st, so the Cardinals are going to have to really work against the Buckeyes to keep that number low for them.
Last season: 21-13 overall, 10-8 in ACC; NCAA Second Round
This season: Picked to finish 6th
“I think, you know, we were the epitome of teamwork last year… I think if you were just watching and you said, let me just see humble people just working their tails off for each other and being very connected… And that's what I think you saw when you saw our team playing at our best… if we're frustrated, you'll know we're frustrated. If we're joyous, you'll know we're joyous. I mean, it's going to be authentic, but I thought it was just exciting in a way if you really like people that… will go out there and just do it all and not look around and see ‘what do I look like,’ but just what is needed…” - Head Coach Katie Meier (18th season)
In response to another question, Meier mentioned that she thought they had one, maybe two 20-point scorer games last season. While the answer is actually six (with another five 19-point performances), her point is well-taken. There were over 1,000 20-plus point performances in Division I last season. Despite having only six of them, the Hurricanes finished in the top third nationally in win percentage en route to an appearance in the ACC championship game. The fact that Miami didn’t require a huge scoring performance from one player to pick up the win illustrates Meier’s point that the Hurricanes both played together and weren’t worried about what any one of them would score.
While Miami didn’t require any one player to notch 20-plus to pick up a win, four of the five 19-point performances, and five of the six 20-plus ones (y’all might remember the outlier) belonged to Kelsey Marshall, who graduated after last season. Marshall was the only Miami player last year who averaged double figures in scoring. The Hurricanes also lose the fifth 19-point performer in Maeva Djaldi-Tabdi, as well as Mykea Gray and Naomi Mbandu, both of whom appeared in over 90% of Miami’s games. The Hurricanes bring in two freshmen who were top-30 in the ESPNHoopGurlz rankings, along with three transfers. One of those transfers is Latasha Lattimore from Texas, who was in the top 10% of field goal shooters last season. The other two are twins Haley and Hanna Cavinder, who arrive from Fresno State. They were the team’s top two scorers, with Haley leading the way at 20.1 points per game, one of only 25 players to average at least 20 PPG (Hanna’s 14.3 still puts her in the top 250). Add in Haley’s 9.4 rebounds per game and 5.9 assists per game, and she stands alone as the only player since HHS has been tracking (since the 2009-10 season) to average at least 20 PPG/9 RPG/5 APG.
Non-conference game to watch: Miami will take on three 2022 NCAA Tournament teams from last year in DePaul, Florida, and Michigan, and all three should be excellent games. All three opponents will be looking to replace big pieces and/or large percentages of their scoring. One of them, though, returns the player who swept the Freshman of the Year Awards and led the country in rebounding. That would be DePaul’s Aneesah Morrow. Combine that with the fact it’s the only game of the three not at home in Coral Gables, and we’ll give the nod to the matchup between the Hurricanes and the Blue Demons.
Last season: 32-4 overall, 17-1 in ACC; NCAA Elite Eight
This season: Picked to finish 3rd, received 8/60 1st place votes
“I just think hopefully we continue what we've done in the past and play really well together. I think there's a lot of people that look at women's basketball, how they used to look at men's basketball years ago and that, you know, you have teams that are really fundamental, disciplined, play well together. But we're also getting more and more athletic… I just love where our game’s going. I think you can see the viewership is really growing. And I think people are realizing that this is a great sport, and you know, you better not miss out…” Head Coach Wes Moore (10th season)
Moore gave some more general comments about the sport of women’s basketball than ones focusing on his team, but the parts of the game he touched on as important to growing the game’s audience as a whole are areas in which his team excels. The Wolfpack were a stellar second last season in both overall and offensive HHS Ratings, aided by top-10 rankings in overall field-goal percentage, effective field-goal percentage, points per scoring attempt, and points per play. NC State also only turned the ball over 12.1 times per game last season, a number which illustrates one reason its offense was so strong but also speaks to the fundamental and disciplined way Moore clearly likes his team to play.
On the defensive side of the ball, NC State was also in the top 10 in HHS rating, coming in seventh. The Wolfpack pulled down 29.8 defensive rebounds per game last season, ninth-best nationally, and only allowed assists on 44.2% of opponent shots, fifth-best in the nation.
All that said, this year’s team will look quite a bit different from last season’s, as four of NC State’s starters from last season have graduated, led by All-American Elissa Cunane. In their place are three transfers, all three of whom are former McDonald’s All-Americans. They are led by South Carolina transfer and North Carolina native Saniya Rivers, who appeared in 27 of the Gamecocks’ 34 games last season, including their national semifinal and national championship victories.
Non-conference game to watch: NC State will take on six participants from last season’s NCAA Tournament: Charlotte, Georgia, Iowa, Mount St. Mary’s, UConn, and USF. In this case, which one to pick as the one to watch is a rather easy choice. The Huskies ended the Wolfpack’s season in the Elite Eight last season in double overtime in Bridgeport, Connecticut. That game was about as close of a battle as you’ll get, as there were 10 ties and 13 lead changes, plus both teams pulled down 39 rebounds. The Huskies’ (and the game’s) two leading scorers from that game will not appear in this year’s contest, as Christyn Williams graduated, and Paige Bueckers is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Wolfpack’s leading scorer in that game, Jakia Brown-Turner, returns. It should once again be a heck of a game, and a national audience will be able to see it, as it’ll air on FS1 the Sunday before Thanksgiving.
Last season: 25-7 overall, 13-5 in ACC; NCAA Sweet 16
This season: Picked to finish 5th
“I think this is a group that's fun to watch because of how much joy they play the game with… We want to play fast, whoever rebounds it, should just go. If they can’t go, they should pass to the closest guy who can, and then they go, so the facilitation will be an all-hands [situation]…” Head Coach Courtney Banghart (fourth season)
I was struggling with how to quantify joy, which was proving even more difficult than doing so for “together,” the semi-intangible answer a lot of other coaches had given me. Luckily in another answer about her guard play, Banghart offered a nearly perfect response to the crux of my question, as it framed an easy thing for a casual fan to look out for from UNC this season. The Tar Heels have already figured out how to play fast, as they were the 58th-fastest offense in the nation, in each of the past two seasons. The Tar Heels should be an excellent team again this season, as the squad that made it to the Sweet Sixteen last season returns four of its five starters, as well as five of its six leading scorers.
While Banghart’s answer focused on the offensive side of the ball, the defensive side of the ball was actually the stronger one for the Tar Heels last season. Their HHS Defensive Ranking was No. 8, 21 slots above their HHS Offensive Ranking. Further, UNC ranked No. 4 in opponent points per 100 possessions. That was followed closely by its No. 5 ranking in opponent field goal percentage and No. 6 in both opponent points per scoring attempt and points per play. In fact, the Tar Heels were one of just three squads, along with South Carolina and Norfolk State, to hold opponents under 35% from the field, 40% from two, and 27% from three. Add in an opponent PPSA under 0.86, and you’re left with just the two Carolinas.
Non-conference game to watch: North Carolina will take on either four or five 2022 NCAA Tournament teams, with guaranteed games against Indiana, Jackson State, Michigan, and Oregon, and a possible meeting with Iowa State. I’m going to give the nod to the game with the Wolverines in the inaugural Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte. While Michigan certainly lost more after last season than UNC, including all-everything player Naz Hillmon, the Wolverines return almost all of their guards, four of their five leading scorers, and their second and third-leading rebounders. It will also be an easy game to find, as it’s on ESPN2 the Tuesday before Christmas, which brings it up another level, casual viewership/importance-wise.
Last season: 24-9 overall, 13-5 in ACC; NCAA Sweet 16
This season: Picked to finish 4th, received 4/60 1st place votes
“…I was gonna say pace. I think that's what I want them to notice. It's something that I've kind of learned being in the NBA, that style of play and trying to implement that my first year, second year. I think you could see that a lot… later in the season, especially [like last season’s] Oklahoma game [when] we scored 108 points. That's how I want to play all the time…” - Head Coach Niele Ivey (third season)
Last season, Notre Dame was 57th in estimated possessions per 40 minutes (reminder, in case you skipped part 1, the stat also known as pace), a 33-slot jump from Ivey’s first season. They were also 34th in points per 100 possessions, a 66-slot rise. The Oklahoma win Ivey mentioned was their fastest game last season with an approximate pace of 88.5 and one of three the Irish played at a pace above 80. There were only 76 teams that played a game last season at a pace of 87 or better.
The Irish lose five from last year’s roster, including Sam Brunelle (transfer to Virginia) and Anaya Peoples (transfer to DePaul), both of whom appeared in 32 of Notre Dame’s 33 games last season, and Maya Dodson (graduation) who appeared in all 33. That said, the Irish bring in transfers Lauren Ebo from Texas, Kylee Watson from Oregon, and Jenna Brown from Stanford. Ebo dominated the offensive glass last season, ranking in the top 5% nationally in offensive rebounds per game. The Fighting Irish also added freshman KK Bransford, the 29th-ranked player in her class, a McDonald’s All-American and the back-to-back Ms. Ohio Basketball.
Probably more importantly, the Irish return Olivia Miles, arguably the breakout star of the early rounds of last season’s NCAA Tournament (thanks in large part to the game against the Sooners we’ve discussed). Miles, as her coach pointed out at Tip-Off, was the only freshman on last season’s All-ACC First Team. She also averaged 7.4 assists per game, second only in the country to Iowa’s Caitlin Clark’s 8.0. If the Irish want to play fast, having a quick, smart, point guard who can score (her 13.7 PPG ranked in the top 10% nationally last season) and excels at making the extra pass is a heck of a head start down that path.
Non-conference game to watch: Notre Dame will take on three NCAA Tournament teams from last season in American, Maryland, and UConn. It’s hard to pick between the contests against the Terps and the Huskies, but we’re going to give a slight edge to the latter game. The game against UConn comes just three days after the contest against Maryland and is on ABC, a huge stage for Notre Dame and the sport of women’s basketball as a whole. The Irish and Huskies played last season in Storrs, where the home squad came away with a 19-point victory. That game was right in the middle, pace-wise, for the Irish. So, between the fact that the leading scorer in that game, UConn’s Paige Bueckers, is out for the season, and the fact that Ivey is hoping to pick up the pace all season, it will be interesting to see if the Irish can get their revenge.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.