2022 FIBA Women's World Cup Qualifying Tournaments Preview, Part 2
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On Monday, we released the first part of our FIBA Women’s World Cup Qualifying Tournaments preview. Today, we will go into a little more depth about the games to be played. As a reminder, three teams from each tournament listed below will qualify for the World Cup, held in Australia in September (already qualified teams in bold, listed in order of seed, tournament websites linked):
Tournament A (Belgrade): Australia, Serbia, Brazil, South Korea
Tournament B (Belgrade): France, China, Nigeria, Mali
Tournament C (Osaka): Canada, Japan, Belarus (withdrew), Bosnia and Herzegovina
Tournament D (Washington): United States, Belgium, Russia, Puerto Rico
This preview will go tournament-by-tournament breaking down each team and predicting which teams will qualify. Please note that rosters remain in flux especially because of COVID-19. For example, while Belgium previously announced a roster of 12 players, subsequent review has appeared to show an updated roster with a few replacements. The official FIBA roster pages contain the following disclaimer: “Rosters displayed do not necessarily correspond to the rosters that will play during the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup 2022 Qualifying tournaments. The final 12-players rosters will be confirmed following the Technical Meetings & eligibility checks, which will take place before the first game.” Please also note that I will be using the names used by FIBA unless specified otherwise.
The first game, between Canada and Japan, will begin at 5:00 a.m. ET on Thursday. Many of the games will be streamed live on FIBA's YouTube channel. With that, here are the teams:
Tournament A Preview
Australia
While Liz Cambage’s absence will make most of the headlines for Australia, Seattle Storm rising star Ezi Magbegor is also not in the current Australia roster (which only has 12 players). However, despite these high-profile absences and an already secured berth in the final tournament, the Opals will bring an A-level unit to Serbia. The team features many forwards with perimeter skill, including 2021 WNBA players Rebecca Allen, Stephanie Talbot, and Alanna Smith, and former WNBA player Cayla George. This complement of taller perimeter players should help them play dynamic defense and mix and match different styles at that end while keeping the floor spaced offensively; everyone in the team can shoot three-pointers except former Los Angeles Sparks center Marianna Tolo, and even she can be effective shooting from the high post area. At the guard spots, ball-handling might be a modest concern even with taller players like Talbot (used to a much bigger offensive role when playing for non-WNBA club teams) and reserve wing Tess Madgen being able to provide some dynamism. This might be especially the case when naturalized player and New York Liberty guard Sami Whitcomb hits the bench. Whitcomb will have to absorb more of the on-ball role she has often been tasked with outside the WNBA and with the Liberty this past season rather than the more limited off-ball shooter role she excelled in with the Seattle Storm. However, this weakness is not unusual for Australia in recent years, and they were able to finish second at the last World Cup in 2018 with Whitcomb as a key ballhandler. This will be Americans’ first look at young point guard Shyla Heal since her ignominious stint with the Chicago Sky this past summer, and it will be intriguing to see whether she can effectively lead an offense at this level. All in all, this Australian team would probably have little difficulty qualifying for the World Cup even if they did not have their bid already in hand, and a 3-0 record is not out of the question.
Serbia
Serbia is the team with the greatest uncertainty entering these qualifying tournaments. While the team won Eurobasket Women 2021 and finished 4th at the Tokyo Olympics, the team has lost three former WNBA players as Sonja Vasic (Petrovic) retired from basketball, Jelena Brooks (Milovanovic) retired from the national team, and Ana Dabovic has barely played this season and was excluded from the roster. Serbia is left with only two players who averaged at least 20 minutes per game at both Eurobasket and the Olympics: naturalized American combo guard Yvonne Anderson (who I have written about previously) and defensively astute post player Tina Krajisnik. Key for Serbia moving forward is forward Aleksandra Crvendakic who the Seattle Storm signed to a training camp contract in 2018. A combo forward at the club level, Crvendakic was even utilized at shooting guard for Serbia last summer. While she is generally an extremely efficient player both as a complementary scorer and passer, she has struggled in club play this season with French club Lyon. Another holdover from Serbia’s previous teams of notable importance is post player Dragana Stankovic, drafted in 2015 by the San Antonio Stars in the third round, whose length and athleticism have a major impact defensively. Serbia has the talent to qualify in spite of these challenges, but their bench’s relative lack of experience at this level of competition could prove to be a major problem.
Brazil
Brazil failed to qualify for the 2020 Olympics after being upset by Puerto Rico in the Qualifying Tournament. That was with the benefit of Damiris Dantas in the team, a privilege the team is lacking in this upcoming tournament. Moreover, Korea, perhaps the most vulnerable of the other three challengers, has a similar emphasis on perimeter play (and high variance results). Brazil did manage to split a pair of games against Canada, themselves missing their WNBA contingent, at the 2021 FIBA Americup, but Brazil is now also missing another injured post player, former WNBA player Clarissa dos Santos (herself also absent during the Olympic Qualifying Tournament). Long-time WNBA center Erika de Souza is still in the team, and an x-factor will be South Carolina center Kamilla Cardoso (listed as Kamilla Silva by FIBA) who joins the squad. On the perimeter, shooting guard Taina Paixao was the team’s second-leading scorer at the Americup (behind Dos Santos) while point guards Debora Costa and Alana Goncalo will initiate the offense.
Korea
Korea qualified for the Tokyo Olympics despite losing by 37 and 40 points to Spain and China, respectively, at the qualifying tournament, but they acquitted themselves much better at the tournament proper, including keeping the final deficit to 4 in a rematch with Spain. At both ends, Las Vegas Aces center JiSu Park is their anchor, being used as a scorer and passing hub on offense and an excellent rim protector on defense. While Park personally stands 6’6”, Korea’s next-tallest player is 6’1” Jihyun Park, a young rising star who established a place in the rotation as a perimeter-based forward during the Tokyo Olympics. Despite this, Korea will often run relatively large at the guard spots as their usual starting point guard is Hyejin Park, who stands 5’11”. Korea also often plays a short rotation, only playing 7 players 10 minutes per game at the Olympics. A key player to watch is 5’11” wing Leeseul Kang who signed another training camp contract with the Washington Mystics after not being able to come over on the deal she signed in 2020. Her struggles at the Olympics notwithstanding, Kang is an extremely versatile shooter who can shoot a variety of shots from three-point range and is effective at pulling up after one or two dribbles. Keys for Korea will be to get hot from the perimeter (they kept multiple games within 5 points at the Olympics shooting worse than 25% from three-point range for the tournament) and to keep JiSu Park from getting banged up or from getting into foul trouble, which have been problems in the past.
Projected Order of Finish: Australia (already qualified), Serbia, Korea, Brazil (projected elimination)
Tournament B Preview
France
The Olympic bronze medalists have quite a bit of a shake-up of their own with several players from their Olympic roster now absent. Perhaps the most notable of these is Sandrine Gruda, a former WNBA champion and a legend at the center position in Europe, but former WNBA players Endy Miyem and Valeriane Vukosavljevic are also missing from the roster, among others. France still features two extremely athletic dynamic playmakers in Gabby Williams and Marine Johannes before we even discuss their point guards. Olivia Epoupa may be diminutive, but she is one of the most fearsome pressure defenders in the entire world and active on the boards while 2021 New York LIberty third-round pick Marine Fauthoux has been on a massive upward trajectory as a well-rounded combo guard offensively. A big question will be how France’s post players perform with the core duo of Gruda and Miyem being absent. Both 2021 Las Vegas Aces first-round pick Iliana Rupert and center Helena Ciak played minor roles at the Olympics, and stretch 4 Alexia Chartereau may struggle against China’s massive front line in particular. In addition, Johannes and Williams can be a bit turnover-prone. However, it is extremely unlikely that France fails to qualify.
China
It is tempting to say that China’s success begins and ends with their two extremely large centers, Xu Han and Yueru Li. Xu, a long 6’9”, is a fearsome rim protector while Li, “only” 6’7”, is an extremely strong presence who uses her size best at the offensive end. Both are former WNBA draft picks, and while Han is the one with actual WNBA experience, Li, whose draft rights were recently sent to the Los Angeles Sparks in the Chennedy Carter trade, is the one who has asserted herself better at recent international tournaments, even considering her more pronounced defensive difficulties. China plays almost all of their minutes with exactly one of these young stars on the floor, but they are able to interchange their minutes as needed for the particular match-up. On the perimeter, China has a series of strong attacking players led by 6’1” Meng Li, a three-level scorer and excellent passer on the wing. In addition, point guard Yuan Li is a steady table-settler, Siyu Wang attacked the rim aggressively at the Olympics, and Liwei Yang provided great spacing from the outside. Even with the absence of captain and former WNBA player Ting Shao, China’s perimeter play should be in good hands. The main question for China is at the forward positions, especially if Meng Li spends significant time at SG. Mengran Sun, their longtime starting PF, is the only other absence from China’s Olympic roster. Between the Olympics and the FIBA Women’s Asia Cup last year, Zhenqi Pan and Sijing Huang both excelled at one tournament and struggled at the other while Ru Zhang led the team in minutes at the Asia Cup after playing only 1 minute at the Olympics. China is used to playing deep into their bench, but it will be compelling to watch which forward steps up.
Nigeria
For the Tokyo Olympics, FIBA ruled Nneka Ogwumike and Elizabeth Williams out for the Nigerian national team, and Chiney Ogwumike was not selected despite being considered eligible for the team’s one naturalized player spot. They then found themselves in the Group of Death at the Olympics, losing all three games while playing against the three medalists: the United States, Japan, and France. The eligibility of the Ogwumikes and Elizabeth Williams has not changed, and Erica Ogwumike, on the Olympic roster, will not be playing in the Qualifying Tournament either. Nigeria generally relies on their length to dominate the boards and make just enough perimeter shots to get by. However, they are missing one of their key perimeter players, Ezinne Kalu, because of injury, hampering their already extremely thin depth at the guard spots. Former Arizona State player and WNBA third round pick Promise Amukamara will have to step up even more than before at PG, especially since she is the only player listed as a guard on the team’s final roster. Among their many forwards, Adaora Elonu and Victoria Macaulay have generally stood out, Ify Ibekwe’s outside shooting ability has at times been an outright necessity, Pallas Kunaiyi-Akpanah remains an indomitable rebounder, and Amy Okonkwo has been establishing herself lately in European club competition.
Mali
Mali follows a similar general blueprint to Nigeria, but they have even less perimeter depth. The primary intrigue with Mali is WNBA draft-eligible prospect Sika Kone who has been showcasing her rebounding ability and finishing well at the rim despite playing in an especially poorly-spaced offense for Spanish team Gran Canaria. Djeneba N’Diaye was the team’s primary perimeter threat at Women’s Afrobasket 2021 while Meiya Tirera has had a distinguished career in Europe. Mali lost by 11 to Nigeria in the Women’s Afrobasket final, and I do not feel inclined to project a different result even with the absence of Ezinne Kalu and the addition of Touty Gandega, a Malinese point guard who sat out of the Afrobasket tournament due to bonus disputes.
Projected Order of Finish: France, China, Nigeria, Mali (projected elimination)
Tournament C Preview
Beyond the general disappointment of any team withdrawing, Belarus’s resignation from the competition is especially disappointing because Tournament C was shaping up to be the most competitive of the four. If Belarus were to compete (and remotely resemble what they showed at Eurobasket Women 2021), they would have brought a veteran team with a taut defense deepest in the post. Their stars up front include Anastasiya Verameyenka, who played alongside many WNBA players during the years she spent at Fenerbahce, and Maryia Papova, a PF who plays as a reserve for the famed UMMC Ekaterinburg and who occasionally slides down to the SF spot for Belarus. Offensively, the team was largely dependent on former WNBA All-Star Alex Bentley to dominate the ball and carry the team.
Canada
Canada is another team featuring a certain amount of uncertainty as one of several teams with a new coach and a number of different faces from their Olympic team. The key absence will be Kia Nurse who continues to recover from the knee injury she suffered in the WNBA playoffs, but their perimeter creation, already a problem at the Olympics, is weakened further by the absence of Arizona point guard Shaina Pellington. Elite shooter Aislinn Konig is likely to fill that void, especially given how many minutes she played at last summer’s Americup when Nurse and Bridget Carleton were absent due to WNBA commitments, as might certified scorer Nirra Fields. In the post, Natalie Achonwa and Kayla Alexander lead the way, but there is uncertainty beyond them as well, especially given the retirement of Miranda Ayim and the absence of face-up power forward Nayo Raincock-Ekunwe. The team is helped by the return of 2014 WNBA second-round pick Michelle Plouffe and her well-rounded offensive game. While Canada probably would not have been the weakest overall team in this tournament, they perhaps benefit most from Belarus’s withdrawal.
Japan
Japan stole the show at the Olympics, running to a silver medal behind a wide-open spread offense and a hyper-aggressive defensive scheme despite not having a player above 6’1”. While point guard Rui Machida, who set assist records at the Olympics despite not being much of a scoring threat, is absent from this roster, the team should still be in good shape. Not to take away from Machida’s individual brilliance, but perhaps a hidden secret of Japan’s is how much turnover they have had at the point guard position, and the team should be fine whoever is running the show. In addition, Maki Takada, the tireless post player whose savvy rim-rolling and ability to hang just well enough defensively against much taller opponents made the whole scheme work remains on the roster, and Japan has another ace up their sleeve. Former Seattle Storm power forward Ramu Tokashiki, 6’3” and with a jump shot to boot, is on the preliminary roster after missing the Olympics with an injury. Tokashiki’s presence adds another dimension to Japan’s team even if their recent run of success (including a previous upset of Belgium at the 2018 World Cup) has come without her. However, coach Tom Hovasse has moved on to coach the men’s team, and it remains a question whether the team can remain as cohesive with a new leader on the bench. Other X-factors are forward Himawari Akaho, a 6’0” WNBA-caliber defender whose offense is still coming around; Saki Hayashi, a pure shooter with an unconventional shooting form who can heat up from deep as quickly as anyone I have ever seen; and Nako Motohashi, who struggled with an obvious injury at the Olympics and into the Japanese League season but whose off-the-dribble shooting has won Japan games in the past.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
This team can go as far as WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones can take them. Jones averaged 24.3 points and 16.8 rebounds per game while averaging 1.22 points per shot and 1.04 points per possession in a jaw-dropping Eurobasket Women performance which catapulted the Balkan nation to new heights in women’s basketball. Her ballhandling ability, both in transition and in the halfcourt, reaches levels in international competitions beyond even what WNBA fans have seen. There are other noteworthy players on this team, including power forward and 2015 WNBA third-round pick Marica Gajic, who averaged a double-double before missing the last two games with an injury, and wing Nikolina Babic, who shot 15-26 (57.7%) from three, but the key for this team is clearly Jones. Of particular note will be how Japan, notoriously undersized, chooses to defend her.
Projected Order of Finish: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Japan, Canada, Belarus (withdrawn/eliminated)
Tournament D Preview
Please note that due to diplomatic issues related to COVID-19 vaccines, Russia will not be playing the United States and will be playing Belgium and Puerto Rico in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, after the remainder of the games have finished in Washington.
United States
Even with only Jewell Loyd, Chelsea Gray, and Ariel Atkins returning from the Olympic gold medal team, no other nation in the world can remotely challenge the United States on talent. One thing that separates this team from previous entries is where the positional depth lies. After traditionally loading up at the post positions, most recently playing Breanna Stewart almost exclusively as a SF at the Tokyo Olympics, this team’s post depth might actually be its weakest positional group: Alyssa Thomas, Natasha Howard, Dearica Hamby, Brionna Jones, and Stefanie Dolson. By contrast, the team can throw out Jewell Loyd, Chelsea Gray, Ariel Atkins, Kayla McBride, Kelsey Plum, Allisha Gray, and Kelsey Mitchell on the perimeter. I cannot rule out Bill Laimbeer-style line-ups with Hamby at SF, but this team is much, much smaller than in the past, which may increase the variance of their results because of a greater reliance on three-point shooting. However, this is also an extremely modern way for the team to play, and I am excited to see them face Belgium (and disappointed not to see them face Russia).
Belgium
Emma Meesseman remains the star of this team with her peerless touch from the mid-range. However, since we last saw her in the WNBA, it seems that she has relied on that touch more and more, eschewing three-pointers more often than she had even previously in FIBA competition and not shooting as high a percentage inside the arc in Euroleague competition. The team also has one core change to its starting line-up with shooting specialist Kim Mestdagh not in the squad despite playing in Italian team Famila Schio’s most recent Euroleague game. Taking her spot on the roster after a prolonged absence from the team is combo guard Hind Ben Abdelkader who brings on-ball scoring from the perimeter that Belgium really has not had in recent tournaments. Pure point guard Julie Allemand, now of the Chicago Sky, still runs the show, small forward Antonia Delaere will still grease the wheels, and center Kyara Linskens will still bring a strong post presence, but the team’s bench is very young and relatively unproven, and the team has replaced coach Philip Mestdagh. Belgium had prided itself on its movement-heavy offense, and it will be interesting to see which of its elements remain and whether there is any gunk in the system.
Russia
As Belgium has Emma Meesseman, Russia has Maria Vadeeva. While we have not seen Vadeeva stateside since 2019, her skill in the post has only increased, and she is an adept passer as well, especially if she can find a read before a second defender comes. Unfortunately, Vadeeva is a relatively late omission from the squad, which is a real blow to the team. Now tasked with leading the way is 2018 WNBA Draft second round pick Raisa Musina, an extremely talented player with shades of Dearica Hamby in her game but whose three-point shot remains in development. Musina has struggled this season with Russian team Nika Syktyvkar, perhaps in part because of how often she has played out of position at small forward, somewhere she will likely have to spend spot minutes once again for her country. Vadeeva’s absence also puts more pressure on post players Zhosselina Maiga and Elizabeta Shabanova who will now be expected to secure the interior. The team should have ample perimeter shooting from players such as point guard Kseniia Levchenko, wing Yulia Kozik, and Eurobasket Women breakout power forward Nina Glonti, and Levchenko should be able to probe well enough to stretch defenses even if her lack of size hinders her as a finisher. However, if teams commit heavily to stopping Vadeeva inside and the guards struggle to create, the offense could get really stagnant, and Vadeeva might be exploitable defensively in the pick-and-roll.
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico has a clear big three: national team mainstays in point guard Jennifer O’Neill and forward Jazmon Gwathmey and a new arrival in wing Arella Guirantes. All three have WNBA experience and great on-ball scoring ability. The question becomes what can the rest of the team do. They were blown out by at least 27 in all three Olympic games by Belgium, China, and Australia—none of whom won their quarterfinal—and have often struggled to establish a strong team concept offensively despite the individual brilliance of their stars. Moreover, the bigs are extremely undersized and especially so compared to the other frontlines in this tournament. Only 5 players return even from that poor Olympic showing, and Gwathmey in particular can hone in too much on her own offense. Puerto Rico could theoretically pull an upset, but the task is much taller than it was when they defeated Brazil to make it to Tokyo, and even that game required overtime.