Big Ten Recap: Everything But the Points
Burton's steals, Clark's assists and Brown's rebounds, plus Michigan's rivalry win
There weren’t many high-profile Big Ten matchups during the past week, so we thought we’d spend less time on individual games and instead dive into some interesting stats that we’ve seen lately.
Before we get to those, one recent game that deserves some discussion is Michigan’s 77-58 win over Ohio State in Columbus on Jan. 27. It was the Buckeyes’ second loss at home this season after a 20-point defeat at the hands of Indiana in December, and the lowest point total for the otherwise high-flying offense powered by Jacy Sheldon and Taylor Mikesell.
Michigan held OSU to six 3-point makes on 22 attempts, the second-lowest total for the Buckeyes this season, and cleaned up on the boards thanks to the presence of Naz Hillmon and Emily Kiser inside. It was another convincing win for a team that hasn’t allowed an opponent to score 70 points since losing to Nebraska on Jan. 4. More tests await the Wolverines against Indiana, Iowa and Maryland.
In a conference where the top teams often rely on starters to play 30 minutes or more a game, Michigan has been able to spread playing time across a deeper roster, especially since former starter Amy Dilk returned from early-season injury. Here’s one way to look at it: of all the Big Ten players who are on the court for 30+ minutes a game and lead their teams in minutes played, Hillmon’s 32 minutes per game is the lowest average. On average, she’s actually playing slightly fewer minutes than she did in the two previous seasons.
One big reason why is the development of Kiser, who has gone from averaging 2.4 points and 2.6 rebounds a game a year ago to averages of 10.3 and 8.1, respectively, and has made Michigan harder to defend. Kiser didn’t score in double figures once in 17 games last season. She’s done it 11 times in 2021-22.
Onto the stats!
Burton’s Consistent Thefts
The Northwestern-Maryland game on Jan. 23 marked the first time that the Wildcats’ Veronica Burton was not credited with a steal since Feb. 22, 2020. We all know that Burton is a stat-sheet stuffer, routinely racking up rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in addition to shouldering an increased scoring burden this season. Burton is one of seven players this season to average at least 10 points, five rebounds and five assists a game (minimum of 15 games played). But the consistency in steals is what is eye-catching. There are just four players who average at least four steals a game this season (playing in at least 15 games), and Burton is the first among them to have a zero-steal game.
Clark’s Helping Hands
On the strength of an 18-assist performance against Penn State, Iowa’s Caitlin Clark has raised her assist average from 7.1 per game last season to 8.2 this season. There have been exactly four 18+ assist performances during the Her Hoop Stats era (2009-present), and two of them were from Baylor’s Niya Johnson in 2015 against decidedly lesser competition (including the Her Hoop Stats era record of 19). The fourth was by Rachel Theriot of Nebraska in a 2014 game against Minnesota. Should Clark continue her current averages of 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists a game, she would be the first player in our database to have done so for a full season.
Brown’s Rebounds
This has been a difficult season for Rutgers, playing its second straight campaign without Head Coach C. Vivian Stringer, but her interim replacement, Timothy Eatman, can point to one significant improvement: rebounding. The Scarlet Knights’ current rebound rate (the percentage of rebound opportunities actually secured) of 54.9% is the highest it has been in the period Her Hoop Stats has kept data. A big part of that is the performance of Osh Brown, the graduate transfer from Ball State, who is averaging 9.2 boards a game. Brown has filled a huge need for Rutgers, but the rebounding depth behind her is limited looking ahead to 2022-23.
Games To Watch
Indiana at Michigan (Monday, Jan. 31)
HHS Prediction: Michigan 67 - Indiana 63 (Michigan with a 65% chance to win)
Indiana hasn’t played a game since Jan. 16 due to COVID issues, and even if this one comes off the Hoosiers will be without leading scorer and rebounder Mackenzie Holmes due to injury. That makes for a stiff challenge in Ann Arbor, but if Indiana can grab and hold a lead as it did against Maryland, that could frustrate the home side. That means keeping Hillmon & Co. off the glass.
Ohio State at Iowa (Monday, Jan. 31)
HHS Prediction: Iowa 87 - Ohio State 80 (Iowa with a 69% chance to win)
It would be a surprise if neither team hits 90 points in this game, and there is a good chance that both will get there, given how well these two can score. Iowa has more firepower on the inside, so the Buckeyes can’t just concentrate on keeping Clark in check (a tricky task for anyone). This is a big bounce-back game for Ohio State.
Maryland at Michigan State (Thursday, Feb. 3)
HHS Prediction: Maryland 81 - Michigan State 72 (Maryland with a 74% chance to win)
On paper this might not seem like much of a game, but the Terrapins’ last two trips to East Lansing resulted in a 17-point loss (2019) and a six-point win (2021). This Spartans team is heavily reliant on Nia Clouden for offense, but isn’t one-dimensional: MSU is in the 95th percentile for 3-point shooting and ranks fourth in the Big Ten in points per scoring attempt.