Big Ten Recap: A Rebounding of the Guards
Jaz Shelley hits the boards and the rise of Deja Winters
For fans of guards who can rebound the ball, the Big Ten is a pretty good conference to watch. The Indiana-Nebraska game on Jan. 13 was a case in point.
Among the 29 guards who have started at least 15 games this season and average at least five rebounds a game, three of them played big roles in Thursday’s game: Jaz Shelley of the Huskers, along with Grace Berger and Nicole Cardaño-Hillary of the Hoosiers.
Shelley, the Oregon transfer, leads her team in scoring and rebounding, out-pacing much bigger teammates on the boards. As a reserve in Eugene last season, her rebounds per 40 minutes was 3.8. Now it’s 10.4. In the Huskers’ 72-65 loss to the Hoosiers, Shelley scored 15 points and pulled down nine rebounds in nearly 37 minutes of action, narrowly missing out on a sixth double-double of the season (she recorded a triple-double against N.C. Central in November).
It’s not like Nebraska is a weak rebounding team overall, either; the Huskers rank in the top 100 teams in every rebounding stat, including offensive boards. But Shelley’s increase, from averaging 1.7 rebounds a game last season to 7.5 now is quite the jump - the 15th biggest improvement this season.
Indiana needs its guards to hit the boards. Berger, who has one of the better mid-range games around, scored 22 points and had seven boards against Nebraska, both team-leading. Cardaño-Hillary, often the smallest player on the court at 5’6”, had six rebounds, one above her average. Indiana’s strategy is to control the tempo and play consistent defense. Controlling the ball is a big part of that formula.
That backcourt rebounding was especially necessary as Indiana faced Nebraska without junior Mackenzie Holmes, their leading rebounder who was sidelined with a knee injury (it didn’t seem too serious, according to Matt Cohen of the Indianapolis Star). Without Holmes’ 18 points and eight rebounds a game, the Hoosiers got a team rebounding effort and ended up with 35 boards compared to Nebraska’s 41. Forward Aleksa Gulbe filled in well, including shooting 3-6 from 3-point range, but fouled out with 4 minutes left in the game. A lack of depth continues to be a concern for IU, but they keep finding ways to win.
As important as rebounding was in Indiana’s win, the game might have hinged on turnovers. The Hoosiers forced 19 Nebraska turnovers, including 13 steals, which kept the Huskers from setting the pace they wanted. Their 65 points was the second-lowest of the season. One bright spot for the Huskers was Alexis Markowski, a freshman center making her third consecutive start. She scored 17 points and pulled down seven rebounds in 25 minutes. It’s hard to see her coming out of the starting lineup the rest of the season as she brings a physical post presence and the ability to shoot the ball. Indiana travels to Lincoln for a Valentine’s Day rematch.
More Bright Spots
Our colleague Jacob Mox has already written why Northwestern’s Veronica Burton deserves more attention for her performance this season. Here are some other Big Ten players you may not have heard much about who have been playing well lately:
Minnesota guard Deja Winters, who transferred from North Carolina A&T, is shooting 13-25 from 3-point range in her last three games. She scored 20 points in the Gophers’ loss to Maryland on Jan. 9, when Minnesota played without its second-leading scorer, Jasmine Powell. Winters has the best 3-point percentage on the team, which hosts Ohio State and then Iowa in the next week. Some of her best performances have come against top-flight opponents, including North Carolina, Oklahoma and UConn. She’s averaging 11 points a game and a career-high 1.2 blocks per game, and shooting 43% from 3-point range.
Penn State’s Leilani Kapinus has scored in double-figures in four of the Nittany Lions’ last five games, including a 17-point, 5-rebound performance against Michigan and 12 points against Maryland. Kapinus, a redshirt freshman who missed all of last season due to injury, was a two-time All-State player in Wisconsin. Along with leading scorer Makenna Marisa, she has started all of Penn State’s 14 games.
It’s hard to say you’ve been overlooked when your team is 12-3, but it’s possible that’s the case for Taylor Mikesell, who has made a big impact for Ohio State this season. Playing for her third team in three seasons (first Maryland, then Oregon before returning home to Ohio), Mikesell currently ranks third in 3-pointers made per game and is hitting nearly half of her shots from long-range. She has always been an excellent perimeter shooter, but the Buckeyes have given her a more prominent offensive role this season with the absence of Madison Greene, who suffered a knee injury and will not play again this season. Mikesell has stepped in to become the team’s second-leading scorer. Among Big Ten players who have taken at least 20 3-pointers, Mikesell has the best percentage.
Games To Watch
Michigan at Maryland (Sunday, Jan. 16)
HHS Prediction: Maryland 79 - Michigan 71 (Maryland with a 75% chance to win)
Maryland hasn’t played since the 9th, getting a nice break before the Wolverines come to town, while Michigan played Penn State Thursday night, winning 74-57. While the rest will no doubt help the Terrapins, these two teams are just three slots apart in the AP Poll, and pretty close in a lot of places statistically. Michigan is actually the better-shooting team on the season, but only by 0.4 percentage points, and by 1.5 percentage points from 2. The Terrapins are scoring 10 more PPG on the season than the Wolverines, in part thanks to their 3.9% advantage from beyond the arc. With that said, the main thing Michigan may need to focus on is preventing Maryland from getting their own misses, as the Terrapins’ 15.3 offensive rebounds per game rank 13th nationally, and their 40.3% offensive rebounding rate is ninth. If Naz Hillmon and Emily Kiser can control the boards, Michigan can win.
Nebraska at Iowa (Sunday, Jan. 16)
HHS Prediction: Iowa 81 - Nebraska 78 (Iowa with a 58% chance to win)
Iowa is favored in this rematch, and based on the Hawkeyes’ nine-point win in Lincoln earlier this week, it’s hard to see them doing worse at home. The Cornhuskers are 3-2 in road games this season, with their most impressive win coming at Wake Forest on Dec. 1. They haven’t shot particularly well from 3-point range in three conference road games. Then again, Iowa missed all 15 of its long-range shots in beating Purdue on Jan. 13, the first game they had gone without making a three in nearly four years!
Northwestern at Michigan State (Sunday, Jan. 16)
HHS Prediction: Michigan State 70 - Northwestern 68 (Michigan State with a 56% chance to win)
This figures to be a pretty close game, but Northwestern’s defensive prowess should be a big factor in East Lansing. If the Wildcats can make Nia Clouden work for her nearly inevitable bucket of points, they should have an excellent chance. But which Northwestern shows up: the team that held Iowa to 69 points or the one that lost by 13 to Ohio State at home in the very next game?