2023-24 WNBA Offseason Guides: Phoenix Mercury
The latest in our breakdowns of where WNBA teams stand now that they've been eliminated from contention in 2023 and are looking towards 2024
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Previously published 2023-24 Offseason Guides: Seattle Storm
2023 Phoenix Mercury record (when eliminated): 9-25
2024 draft picks: Hold their own top-4 lottery pick, likely with second-best odds in the draw. Their second-round pick is gone to Chicago from the DeShields/Onyenwere/Mabrey trade, although they do have an extra third-rounder from the same deal.
Free agents: Skylar Diggins-Smith (uncoreable unrestricted free agent), Brittney Griner (uncoreable unrestricted free agent), Megan Gustafson (UFA), Shey Peddy (UFA), Sug Sutton (Reserved)
Under contract: Diana Taurasi, Sophie Cunningham, Brianna Turner, Moriah Jefferson, Michaela Onyenwere, Kadi Sissoko
2023 performance: The Mercury's poor results in 2023 and early departure from the playoff picture may not have been quite as predictable as Seattle's, but it shouldn't have been far off. A team that went 15-21 last year may have been adding Brittney Griner back into the mix, but there were too many negatives on the other side of the scales. Griner was coming off nearly a year in a Russian prison and carrying the physical and mental toll from those events; Skylar Diggins-Smith, comfortably their best player in 2022, was never likely to return to the Mercury after her pregnancy due to the breakdown of her relationship with the franchise in 2022; Diana Taurasi was yet another year older; and the rest of the pieces on the roster had merely been shuffled around a little. Given what she went through and her time away from the game, Griner was impressive, but both she and Taurasi have predictably missed games. The Mercury weren't great when they were both available, but the fluctuating lineups have messed with their flow even further. Statistically speaking, based on net rating, they've been the worst team in the league. When the season is officially over, the standings may well agree.
Offseason finances: The six players under contract, assuming they all return, would cost the Mercury a total of $830,158. The most obvious place where that could change significantly would be if Taurasi decided her current toe injury was the final straw and decided to walk off into the sunset, wiping away her $234,936 from Phoenix's cap sheet. However, if we assume she's going to return, the Mercury would have $633,042 remaining in cap space to fill the final five or six roster spots. That becomes $556,507 for four or five spots if we assume one place goes to their 2024 lottery pick. Ultimately, that's probably only enough for two major signings, barring a lot of accommodation from the players involved. It's not even enough, for example, for one supermax ($241,984), one regular max ($208,219), and two base minimum salaries ($64,154 each) to complete an 11-player roster. The supermax and max players would have to shave off around $22,000 total in order to fit the final two.
Offseason priorities: Presumably, re-sign Brittney Griner, and re-load. The Mercury do have a new general manager on the way in Nick U'Ren, which could lead to a change in approach, but if Taurasi does stick around then history suggests they'll do everything they can to make one last run with her (again). Griner is an unrestricted free agent and cannot be cored due to previous years played under a core contract, but comments she's made in the past suggest Phoenix remains the place she wants to play. Even if this year didn't go that well overall, Griner remains a skilled and dominant presence whom you make every effort to re-sign if at all possible. If she's willing to take another discount to aid in building around her, even better. Beyond Griner and Taurasi they have rotation players who can make occasional plays to help out - Sophie Cunningham, Moriah Jefferson, Michaela Onyenwere, Brianna Turner - but lack the true star power to help carry a roster. So that near-max space (which could be increased if Griner takes a discount or they make trades) will probably be offered to the big names on the market. Nneka Ogwumike, Kahleah Copper, Jonquel Jones, Jewell Loyd and maybe even Breanna Stewart are all technically heading for unrestricted free agency, even if some are likely to be much less available than others. The Mercury may at least make enquiries for all of them.
There's also zero value to Phoenix in tanking the 2024 season, because they gave up swap rights to their 2025 first-round pick to New York in the aforementioned Onyenwere trade. All they'd be likely to accomplish is helping the Liberty add yet another useful piece in the 2025 lottery. So even if Griner were to walk away, either to another team or simply deciding that she no longer wants to play at all, Phoenix would probably try to use all that cap space to load up as much as possible alongside Taurasi, Cunningham and that incoming 2024 lottery pick (or whomever that pick could help them trade for). There's no point in being bad in 2024.
Future assets: As mentioned above, they'll be getting the worse of their own and New York's first-rounder in 2025, which at present seems likely to be the Liberty's. They do have an extra second-round pick in 2025 from Chicago, although if U'Ren is anything like his predecessor Jim Pitman that may well be used as a trade asset long before the pick is actually made.
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