Pac-12 Tournament Preview
How does everyone look as the teams head into teams prepare for the first two
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The Top 4
There was a lot of drama over the final weekend of Pac-12 regular season play, but when the dust had cleared, the top four seeds in the league were the same as before the weekend started. The big surprise was one predicted by few people—except maybe Stanford head coach Tara VanDerveer.
In the Pac-12 coaches polls that occur both before and after the season, coaches cannot vote for their own teams or players for first place or individual awards. Eleven coaches chose Stanford as the projected conference champions in the preseason poll. VanDerveer chose the team that faced off against the Cardinal in the conference tournament final last year rather than going with Oregon or Arizona, which landed second and third in this year’s polls.
Utah landed fifth in the polls of Pac-12 coaches and media. The national voters were decidedly lukewarm on the Utes, throwing them just enough votes to land first on the list of others receiving votes in the Associated Press Top 25 and third among that group in the WBCA/USA Today coaches poll.
The Utes didn’t take any notice of that. They showed their fight all year, starting off by blowing out a team that both sets of poll voters did rank going into the season. Utah forced everyone to take notice with a 124-78 defeat of then-No. 16 Oklahoma.
The Utes finally reached the Top 10 in the ninth week of the AP poll. They have set one program ranking record after another, eventually reaching the highest ranking in program history at No. 4.
Utah hit another historic mark on Saturday in its final game of the regular season. With their defeat of Stanford, the Utes took a share of the Pac-12 regular season championship. It just doesn’t come with the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 Women’s Basketball Tournament.
Due to Pac-12 tiebreaking rules, the two teams’ winning percentage against Colorado became the decisive factor. Stanford’s double-overtime win over the Buffaloes in Boulder on Thursday gave the Cardinal a 2-0 record over CU. Utah split its season series against the Buffs.
Colorado maintained its place at No. 3 in the league by beating California and watching Arizona get upset on the road by both Oregon and Oregon State.
The Wildcats were bailed out by Washington State, which upset UCLA in Pauley Pavilion to keep the Bruins from catching Arizona for the final bye. The extra day of rest can only help UA, which is nursing some injuries heading into the postseason.
UA, UCLA and Southern California all ended up with 11-7 records, but the Wildcats held the tiebreakers over both Los Angeles schools by virtue of defeating them on the road in the teams’ only meeting of the season. USC won both of its games to end the regular season, but it did not have a chance to overtake Arizona because of the tiebreaker.
The first round will be between the bottom eight seeds on Wednesday, Mar. 1 with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals to play the top four teams on Thursday, Mar. 2. The semifinals will be played on Friday, Mar. 3 followed by a day off.
Sunday’s conference final is the only game that will be aired on the ESPN family of networks. All other games will be on the Pac-12 Network.
Who is vying for the quarterfinal berths?
On Wednesday, Mar. 1, the top four seeds will watch as everyone else battles to advance to the quarterfinals. What are the matchups?
Game 1: No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils (8-19, 1-17 Pac-12) vs No. 5 UCLA Bruins (22-8, 11-7 Pac-12)
Time: Wednesday, Mar. 1 at 3 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network, Pac-12 Arizona, Pac-12 Los Angeles
Winner: Advances to play No. 4 Arizona
Our projection: UCLA in projected as the winner with a win probability of better than 81 percent no matter where the game is play. On a neutral court, the Bruins have a win probability of 87.6 percent. Their margin of victory is projected to be +13.9 and the point total is at 132.3 points.
It was a tough season for ASU and first-year head coach Natasha Adair. While Adair brought prolific scorer Tyi Skinner with her from Delaware, Skinner’s 19.0 points per game were not enough to help the team do much in the conference. The Sun Devils finally got a Pac-12 win against Oregon State in their next-to-last game of the regular season, but they do not look like a team ready to upset the Bruins. UCLA has a host of weapons with senior Charisma Osborne and top freshmen Londynn Jones and Kiki Rice.
The winner of this game will face Arizona, a team that is dealing with injuries at just the wrong time. The Pac-12 Network reported that Jade Loville did not start in the Wildcats’ game against Oregon due to an ankle injury. While she played in both games, her effectiveness continued to be limited.
Shaina Pellington stated that she was in a great deal of pain after hurting her ankle against Utah two weeks ago. After that game, Arizona head coach Adia Barnes indicated that she considered taking Pellington out of the game in which she had 35 points, eight rebounds and five steals. Social media reports from Pellington’s mother indicated that she was still dealing with pain as Arizona prepared to play Oregon.
To make matters worse, primary reserve Helena Pueyo was injured early in the game against Oregon State. Pueyo has played more minutes than some of Arizona’s starters all season and she started in place of Loville against Oregon.
In the loss to the Beavers, Pueyo was limited to just eight minutes after colliding with an OSU player and being knocked to the ground. While Barnes said that Pueyo is not in concussion protocol, she had to get stitched above her eye and did not return.
The combo of Pueyo and Pellington as defenders and primary ballhandlers is formidable, so Arizona needs them at their best. The players are both top three in total steals and steals per game. Pueyo is first with 67 total steals and second with 2.3 steals per game. Pellington is third with 51 total steals and 1.9 steals per game.
They are top five in the league at assist-to-turnover ratio with Pueyo at 2.9 leading the Pac-12 and Pellington at 2.2 in fifth place.
With Arizona on a two-game slide and possibly still dealing with critical players who are not at 100 percent, Thursday could be the day either UCLA or ASU could get some revenge.
No. 9 Oregon Ducks (16-13, 7-11 Pac-12) vs No. 8 Washington Huskies (15-13, 7-11 Pac-12)
Date/Time: Wednesday, Mar. 1 at 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network, Pac-12 Oregon, Pac-12 Washington
Winner: Advances to play No. 1 Stanford
Our projection: Oregon is projected at the winner with a win probability of 60.1 percent on a neutral court. The margin of victory is projected to be +2.9 and the point total is projected at 130.6 points.
Both teams got big wins late in the season that are crucial to their postseason hopes. Oregon’s win over Arizona could be the difference in getting into the NCAA Tournament, but the Huskies had the biggest shocker in the conference when they defeated Stanford. That is the game that has UW getting the eight seed over the Ducks.
No one thought these two teams would be meeting in the first round of the conference tournament with the Huskies as the higher seed. Oregon was picked by the coaches to finish second in the conference. The media thought the Ducks would be third. Along with Stanford and Arizona, UO was one of just three Pac-12 teams ranked by the AP voters heading into the season.
Meanwhile, UW was picked to finish 10th in both preseason conference polls but seemed to get stronger as the season progressed. The Huskies started league play 1-7 and beat 1-17 ASU by just two points in Tempe midway through the season.
The trip to face the Arizona schools appeared to jump-start Washington. UW gave the Wildcats all they could handle in a seven-point loss before defeating the Sun Devils. After that, the Huskies closed the season out 6-4.
Tina Langley’s squad not only beat Stanford, but it was also one of the teams that prolonged Oregon’s seven-game losing streak. The loss to the Huskies came on Feb. 19, so it’s fresh in the Ducks’ minds. Can they get their revenge?
A lot could depend on the ankle of Oregon freshman Grace VanSlooten. The Ducks managed to get two wins over the weekend without their star rookie. Will she be back? If not, can they continue winning without her? For a team that was already shorthanded, it’s a lot to expect, but they have already shown that it’s possible.
Whoever comes out on top gets rewarded with a game against Stanford, another team that might like to give Washington some payback and give the selection committee evidence that the loss to the Huskies was a fluke.
No. 10 California Golden Bears (13-16, 4-14 Pac-12) vs No. 7 Washington State Cougars (19-10, 9-9 Pac-12)
Date/Time: Wednesday, Mar. 1 at 9 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network, Pac-12 Bay Area, Pac-12 Washington
Winner: Advances to play No. 3 Colorado
Our projection: The Cougars are projected to win whether the game is home, away or at a neutral site. At a neutral site, the win probability is 77.8 percent. They are projected to win by +8.9 points and the point total is projected to be 131.6 points.
Washington State is exactly where it was expected to be. The Cougs are trying to get to a third straight NCAA Tournament, which would be yet another sign that head coach Kamie Ethridge has her program on the right track.
Cal is trying to show that head coach Charmin Smith is starting to get her program on the right track. The four wins in conference play are the most the Bears have had since the year before Smith took over when they went 9-9. The most league wins the program has had under the current head coach prior to this season is three.
It may not seem like a big improvement, but the Golden Bears have been either 11th or 12th in the league standings all three years under Smith. They were chosen 11th again this season. They are taking baby steps. A larger step—like advancing to the quarterfinals for the second time in four years—could turn some heads.
To do that, Cal must get by the high-powered offense led by Charlisse Leger-Walker and a threatening defense anchored by center Bella Murekatete.
No. 11 Oregon State (12-17, 4-14 Pac-12) vs No. 6 USC Women of Troy (21-8, 11-7 Pac-12)
Date/Time: Wednesday, Mar. 1 at 9 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network, Pac-12 Los Angeles, Pac-12 Oregon
Winner: Advances to play No. 2 Utah
Our projection: USC has a 61.3 percent win probability on a neutral court and are projected to win by +3.0 points. The Women of Troy and the Beavers are projected to put up a point total of 121.3 points.
If it weren’t for the amazing jobs done by Utah’s Lynne Roberts and Colorado’s JR Payne, USC’s Lindsay Gottlieb would have a strong case for Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Despite losing a talent like Alissa Pili to a conference foe, watching her star recruit deal with the tragedy of getting shot, and taking time off to give birth, the coach took a team picked ninth to within one win of getting a first-round bye in the conference tournament.
Oregon State lost a few important players to transfer, too, but it had a top five recruiting class according to ESPN HoopGurlz. Raegan Beers wasn’t just one of the best freshmen in the class, she was one of the best Pac-12 players overall.
The Beavers are playing without Talia von Oelhoffen, who announced prior to the final weekend of the regular season that she had been playing through an injury and had decided that she could no longer do so.
Von Oelhoffen’s 13.2 points per game were just behind teammate Beers’ 13.3 points per game for second on Oregon State and 17th in the Pac-12.
USC has one of the best frontcourt players in the league in Rayah Marshall to counter Beers and make it difficult to score inside for players who drive like Bendu Yeaney. The Beavers have not given up on the season, though. Their win over Arizona on senior day proved that. Do they have a few more upsets in them?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.