2024 Olympics Group A Preview
2024 Olympics Group A Preview
Breaking down each of the four teams in Group A of the women's basketball tournament at the Paris Olympics
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The Olympics represent the biggest stage for international competition in women’s basketball, and this year’s games seem poised to be extremely competitive. Eleven of the 12 national teams from the field in Tokyo return in Paris, with the only change to the field being Germany replacing South Korea, and 11 of the 12 teams feature at least one player with WNBA experience. Cross-continental parity is also at a relative high point, with all four semifinalists at the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup coming from outside Europe for the first time at a global tournament since the 2000 Olympics in Sydney.
This is the first of three previews analyzing each group; those will then be followed by an overall prediction article. Each group preview will discuss all four of its competitors in detail, listed in the order of the teams’ seeds from the draw. Note that hyperlinks on players’ names are connected to player pages on our stats site, Her Hoop Stats. The games will start on Sunday, July 28, with certain games being televised on the NBC family of networks and all of them being available on Peacock.
Without further ado, here is our breakdown of Group A.
China
China’s most obvious feature is the twin towers center tandem that allows it to run 40 minutes of continuous elite center play. Han Xu and Li Yueru have both made recent appearances in the WNBA, and while both have had an uneven run of form stateside, they have also shown significant flashes, most notably Han’s 2022 season with the New York Liberty. The 6-foot-9 Han has improved her physical presence in recent years while continuing to display the deft touch and finesse with which she initially made her mark. Furthermore, she proved at last year’s Asia Cup that she could handle major minutes in Li’s absence after the pair had generally split minutes at previous competitions, averaging 34.0 minutes per game at the tournament excluding China’s lopsided opening victory against Lebanon. For her part, the 6-foot-7 Li excels at carving out space on the block with her size and strength, while improvements in her scoring touch and mobility have helped her earn more consistent minutes in her current WNBA campaign with the Los Angeles Sparks. Both players are also extremely imposing rim protectors with Han’s supreme length granting her a particularly strong advantage in that department.
However, China’s success in recent tournaments runs deeper than just its pivot rotation. In fact, China stakes a claim to being one of the most balanced teams in the whole tournament. Playmaking small forward Li Meng, who spent last season with the Washington Mystics, is the most visible leader of the offensive attack, consistently creating for herself and others and a threat to pull up off the dribble for anywhere. However, where China really shines though is in its exceptional guard depth, possessing three experienced guards with varying skill sets all able to contribute at a high level. Yang Liwei is a steady playmaker and shooter; Wang Siyu is just as good as a passer while also exhibiting serious daring and toughness as a slasher; and Li Yuan comes off the bench and operates as a quick prober and tablesetter whose statistics in the past Chinese WCBA season may indicate that she has turned a corner as an outside shooter. The team also includes Wu Tongtong, who has been a less consistent member of the national team and an even less consistent member of the playing rotation but demonstrates real juice as a shotmaker and transition player.
China also stands out for being one of the few teams on the international stage which typically plays four perimeter players without sacrificing size at the power forward position. This is because Huang Sijing plays as a 6-foot-3 dribble-pass-shoot-defend forward who excels in a very streamlined role. Potentially backing Huang up is 6-foot-5 Sun Mengran, who is more of a traditional post player but one who brings just as much floor spacing. Sun is making her first appearance for China since the last Olympics and is coming off a Chinese WCBA season where she shot 37.0% from 3-point range on 6.2 attempts per 40 minutes.
Stylistically speaking, China also plays faster than one might expect from a team which nearly always employs a giant at the 5 spot. This is reflected in its passing numbers, notably averaging 23.9 assists per game with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.74 during its silver medal run at the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup, ranking second behind only the USA in each category. At that tournament, China played the USA as close as anyone, losing by 14 points in the group stage and by 22 in a final where it was missing Li Meng, perhaps the single most irreplaceable individual on that version of its roster.
Overall, China is one of the most balanced teams at any tournament, between interior and perimeter play, between offense and defense, and between playmaking and individual scoring brilliance. Having such a large cadre of willing and able playmakers and two true go-to scorers on the interior makes China’s offense difficult to shut off entirely. That being said, France did manage exactly that in an 82-50 drubbing at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in February on Chinese soil. Perhaps surprisingly, this came from holding China to 7-for-28 (25.0%) shooting inside the arc, including limiting the supersized center duo to a combined 12 points on 3-for-9 (33.3%) field-goal shooting. The team’s sole double-digit scorer in that game was Li Meng, who recorded 21 points. One of China’s core problems is its tendency to miss slightly more than its fair share of layups, which could cost it in a close game. China has also struggled mightily in its preparation games, including losing multiple blowouts to Australia without Li Meng or Li Yueru - albeit with Australia missing many more players - and a 22-point loss to Belgium with a full-strength squad but with Belgium still missing both of its WNBA-level starting point guards, Julie Allemand and Julie Vanloo. These performances could be a harbinger of a rickety start, if not tournament, for China.
X-Factor: Yang Liwei
Yang Liwei stands out as a player whose value could swing surprisingly drastically in either direction. For one, among China’s core triumvirate of point guards, Yang is both the best 3-point shooter and also the player who derives the greatest part of her offensive value from outside shooting. While she has been a fairly consistent performer at the international level, this player archetype inherently introduces a fair amount of variability into the equation. As talented as China’s perimeter players are, its best source of offense will always be through its centers in the post. Consequently, spacing the floor for them is absolutely paramount, making Yang’s contributions all the more important. Furthermore, she missed the first portion of the league season because of an injury she incurred during last year’s FIBA Asia Cup and only averaged 17.4 minutes per game once she did return, substantially fewer than the rest of her teammates. While she has played consistent minutes in China’s preparation games, ensuring that she is in top form could be critical for China’s Olympic success.
WNBA-Specific Interest
Ultimately, any player who earns starter-level minutes for China should garner serious attention from WNBA-minded viewers. In particular, Li Meng made her mark in the WNBA last season operating mostly as a shooting specialist for the Washington Mystics. However, she displays a more versatile game at the FIBA level, playing more as a true three-level scorer and playmaker when representing China. Last May, Yang Liwei was the last cut of the Los Angeles Sparks in training camp and impressed some observers with her play during the preseason. Huang also represents the exact sort of versatile ancillary “3-and-D” wing player which is prized in the NBA and even rarer in the WNBA. Beyond the starting lineup, 6-foot tall, playmaking wing Yang Shuyu, Yang Liwei’s younger sister, and 6-foot-2 scorer Luo Xinyu, both 22 years old, each had exceptionally strong seasons in the Chinese WCBA and represent the most likely sources for a true breakout at the FIBA level.
Who’s Not Here: Shao Ting, the team’s leading minutes-getter at the Tokyo Games who briefly played for the Minnesota Lynx, retired from basketball after those Games. Pan Zhenqi has also carved out a role as a backup forward at previous tournaments but will not be with the team in Paris.
Spain
Team Breakdown
Spain has been one of the powerhouses of Europe for more than 20 years, and for much of that time it has built the boat on the defensive end. At its most recent full-fledged tournament, EuroBasket Women 2023, Spain’s defense conceded a meager 58.3 points per game, notably holding a Germany team light on playmaking to a woeful 42 points in their quarterfinal matchup. Players known for their size and/or quickness form the bedrock of this defensive identity, with speedy 6-foot shooting guard Queralt Casas fitting this archetype most squarely. For all of its size elsewhere in the lineup, Spain lacks a traditional shot-blocker down low. Fortunately, Laura Gil provides ample rim protection, and interior defense has never been Spain’s problem, particularly because of its collective physicality and toughness.
The team also fills its rosters with quality passers, starting games with Maite Cazorla and Casas and then granting veteran point guard Cristina Ouviña the majority of her minutes at the 2. Overall, all five players likely to spend the majority of their minutes at a guard spot played in EuroLeague Women (the best club competition outside the WNBA) this past season, and every single one of them had an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 2. That being said, much of Spain’s offense rests on the talent of its playmakers as passers rather than as individual scorers. The primary exceptions to the lack of one-on-one scorers in the Spanish core are its small forwards. The team’s traditional leader, 2017 EuroBasket Women MVP Alba Torrens, has declined a fair deal from her peak but still possesses a certain amount of potency as both a scorer and passer off the dribble at 6-foot-4. Meanwhile, 6-foot-2 former WNBA draft pick María Conde has frequently struggled with her efficiency against EuroLeague Women competition and has not quite cemented herself as a star for the national team, but she remains a talented scorer and passer in her own right.
As talented as Spain’s players are, that lack of scoring punch can sometimes lead to difficult offense, notably mustering only 58 points in its loss to Belgium in last year’s EuroBasket Women final and having to grind out a 60-55 victory over Canada at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in February. Not helping matters is the limited amount of offense it will draw from post players likely to play significant minutes. While Gil has improved significantly offensively in recent years, her scoring largely comes from moderately efficient postups and mid-range jumpers. Meanwhile, Paula Ginzo, likely the team’s third post player, mustered only 0.98 points per scoring attempt in the Spanish league this past season, although this number is partly pulled down by the fact that her shooting range, like many Spanish post players, dies just inside the 3-point arc.
Two new additions exist at opposite extremes in terms of how they fit Spain’s traditional mode. Mariona Ortiz profiles as a 6-foot backup point guard who can run a good offense as a floor general and use her size effectively at the defensive end, fitting the Spanish system to a T. By contrast, Megan Gustafson has always been an undeniably talented post scorer, but questions have been posed about her abilities at the other end of the court. In fact, Gustafson joins Spain not only as the team’s best interior scorer by a significant margin but also the most effective 3-point shooter of Spain’s traditional post cohort, representing significant growth from her time at Iowa when she mostly operated from the elbows in. Gustafson came off the bench in all three of Spain’s games at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament despite leading the team in scoring and is still incorporating herself into Spain’s team, especially since she lacks the benefit of extensive pre-Olympic preparation because of her commitment to the Las Vegas Aces. Even with a key injury to starting center Raquel Carrera clearing a path, there remains no guarantee that Gustafson will start even now. Gustafson appearing in the starting lineup could meaningfully alter Spain’s approach in ways that might open up its offense but which also may dent its trademark defense.
X-Factor: María Conde
Even when surrounded by other talented offensive players, María Conde tends to rely on her shot-making ability rather than garner easy shots in the so-called “analytics-friendly” zones of the court and can struggle to score efficiently. When she does get 3-point shots, she has also managed to convert only 22.4% of them in EuroLeague Women over the past two seasons. While Spain has plenty of talented passers throughout its roster, especially at the point guard position, it does have slight deficits in the shooting department and lacks another true one-on-one scorer on the perimeter. As the team’s other wings continue to age - Torrens, Casas, and shooters Leonor Rodríguez-Manso and Andrea Vilaró are all over the age of 30 - Conde will need to take a step forward and lead Spain, especially in the scoring department. It can be easy to overstate the imperative for Conde to step up, as Spain still managed to win a silver medal at EuroBasket Women 2023 despite Conde getting knocked out of the tournament with an injury she suffered during the last group stage game. Nevertheless, if Conde can prove that she can efficiently absorb some of the creation burden or unlock faster, more spaced-out lineups with her or Torrens playing power forward, she could help her team access another gear offensively, which could make a difference in pushing Spain into the medal rounds.
WNBA-Specific Interest
Beyond Gustafson getting a chance once again to be a featured offensive player in front of North American viewers, Maite Cazorla stands out as a WNBA-caliber player. The former Oregon point guard has continued to develop since her season with the Atlanta Dream in 2019, proving herself capable of playing on or off the ball and being able to defend her position well. Cazorla is also a consummate floor general, averaging 7.2 assists per 40 minutes and recording a 3.17 assist-to-turnover ratio for USK Praha in EuroLeague Women while spending substantial amounts of time alongside another playmaking guard. Meanwhile, Torrens never joining the Connecticut Sun after being drafted by them in the third round of the 2009 WNBA Draft remains one of the greatest “what-ifs” of recent league history. Conde, a third-round pick of the Chicago Sky in 2019, signed her rookie deal but never ultimately appeared for the team.
Who’s Not Here: Gustafson fills Spain’s naturalized player spot in place of Astou Ndour-Fall, the second-leading scorer at the last Olympics. Raquel Carrera, a second-round WNBA draft pick in 2021 who has cemented herself as Spain’s starting center in recent years, and veteran point guard Silvia Domínguez are both out with injuries. Legendary point guard Laia Palau has retired from the national team, but at 44 years old she did ply her trade in the Spanish third division this past season.
Serbia
In recent years, Serbia’s offense has revolved around the individual skill of Yvonne Anderson. The former Texas guard, who possesses a legitimate claim for being the world’s best guard outside the WNBA, excels as a downhill attacker while also being a legitimate three-level scorer with good passing skill. Typically utilized as a shooting guard at the club level, Anderson generally orchestrates the Serbia offense from the point guard position - helping to explain the inefficiency she has shown from 3-point range in recent national team competitions - and will occupy the foremost position on every opponent’s scouting report.
Serbia also boasts a pair of experienced post players who anchor its defense. Tina Krajišnik (née Jovanović) makes her mark with strength and positioning while Dragana Stanković uses her length to wreak havoc as a defensive playmaker, garnering both steals and blocks in large numbers. Both players also acquit themselves well offensively although neither player possesses consistent 3-point range and Stanković tends to rely excessively on turnaround jumpers in the post. More recently, UCLA power forward Angela Dugalić made a name for herself at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Brazil in February, starting all three games alongside Krajišnik, because of her ability to play as a true stretch four, something Serbia has traditionally lacked. Meanwhile, Masa Janković had a breakout year in EuroLeague Women this season as a smaller center more in the mold of a face-up driver. Meanwhile, Mina Đorđević (typically anglicized as Djordjevic) has not established herself with the most alluring club career, spending much of the past two seasons on the farm teams of competitive Turkish teams, but has frequently contributed at a high level for her national team. Overall, Serbia has a clear pair of stars down low but has clear alternatives if they struggle. This can especially happen with foul trouble as Krajišnik and Stanković combined to average 7.7 fouls per game collectively in just 40.0 combined minutes per game across the three games in Brazil.
The biggest question for Serbia rests upon who will carry offensive weight alongside Anderson. Nevena Jovanović traditionally held backup point guard minutes playing out of position in previous iterations of this Serbia team, but her role has declined substantially in recent tournaments. Jovana Nogić broke into the national team setup in the run-up to the 2022 FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup but took a clear step backward when asked to operate more as a playmaker at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Furthermore, Jovanović no longer plays club basketball, something which is also true for movement shooter Saša Čađo (typically anglicized as Cadjo). No one else stands out as being able to carry that mantle, either based on club experience or significant stretches spent in a Serbia uniform.
Along those lines, a rough shooting performance from either Nogić or Čađo could really cramp Serbia’s floor spacing because most of Serbia’s other perimeter players are slashers and because of the long-term questions surrounding its backup point guard situation. This was certainly the case at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament when the team shot a collective 11-for-60 (18.3%) from 3-point range as only Dugalić shot a legitimate number of attempts at a decent rate of accuracy.
X-Factor: Jovana Nogić
Secondary creation beyond Anderson has been a major question for recent iterations of this Serbia team. Nogić has often been asked to fulfill some of these responsibilities, and the former Providence wing has had her fair share of struggles in those attempts. At the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Brazil this past February, Nogić shot a woeful 7-for-42 (16.7%) from the field across three games. However, at her best, she is an extremely talented movement shooter, passer, and foul drawer who averaged an efficient 17.4 points and 4.9 assists per game for EuroCup Women runner-up and Turkish league competitor Besiktas across all competitions. Even in that miserable stretch in Brazil, she averaged 5.0 free-throw attempts per game and recorded an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.00. Finding the right balance - or even receiving easier off-ball looks from time to time when she does not have to create opportunities on the ball - could allow her skill set to pop in a major way, but another epic cold stretch could stick out just as much.
WNBA-Specific Interest
Anderson is one of the best players outside the WNBA but at age 34 may not hold much appeal to teams as a long-term acquisition. Stanković’s WNBA rights are held by Las Vegas after she was drafted by the San Antonio Silver Stars in the third round of the 2015 WNBA Draft, and her imposing rim protection and skill offensively may carry some intrigue for teams. Dugalić may not have enough of an overall game or be athletic enough to pin herself on WNBA draft boards once she leaves UCLA, but shooting post players always generate some interest, especially when they have legitimate size as Dugalić does. On the wing, Ivana Raca’s combination of slashing and toughness helped her become a third-round pick of the Los Angeles Sparks after she graduated from Wake Forest in 2021, and she totaled 7.4 free throw attempts per 40 minutes while playing in the Italian league and EuroCup Women this past season. However, she has often recorded suspect scoring efficiency marks overall, hampered by an outside shooting stroke that does not quite reach par.
Who’s Not Here: Former WNBA players Sonja Vasić (née Petrović), Ana Dabović-Mustur, and Jelena Brooks (née Milovanović) all retired from international competition after the Tokyo Olympics, with Brooks being the only one who remains active at the club level. Earlier that summer, Vasić had been Serbia’s leading scorer and was named Tournament MVP at EuroBasket Women 2021 after leading her country to a gold medal, a tournament where Brooks led the team in minutes. Aleksandra Crvendakić had also earned a clear bench role on that generation of Serbia teams as a connecting forward and had also established herself well in EuroLeague Women, but she barely played this past club season and is also not on the roster. Nikolina Milić has also not appeared for Serbia since the 2020 Olympic Qualifying Tournament despite being a solid WNBA contributor who plays at the highest club level in Europe.
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico likes to play fast. Quick shots from confident scorers represent the lion’s share of Puerto Rico’s offense, although not nearly as much as previous iterations of this team where poor shot selection was a serious problem. The leader of this offense is wing scorer Arella Guirantes who has the handle and quickness to get to the rim and the vision to exploit holes in the defense and distribute to her teammates. Given how undersized much of Puerto Rico’s roster is, Guirantes slides up and down the positional spectrum freely, having played significant minutes at shooting guard and at power forward depending on the situation, and her explosive athleticism can be a game changer for Puerto Rico. However, she can be held to some rather dismal shooting performances filled with missed mid-range jumpers, both the product of personal tendencies and also the heavy burden she must shoulder offensively.
That being said, it would be a massive error to call Puerto Rico a one woman team. Stretch power forward Mya Hollingshed is a lethal option in the pick-and-pop with the ability to play spot minutes at center and to create for herself both from the perimeter and the post, albeit with these forays usually culminating in mid-range jumpers. Defensively, Hollingshed’s speed and length harry opponents, helping to compensate for her strength disadvantage. At the guard spots, veteran Pamela Rosado is a deadly shooter off the dribble while Jacqueline Benitez is a skilled movement shooter. Meanwhile, Trinity San Antonio did not join Puerto Rico for the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in China while playing for Grand Canyon but serves as another ball handler and distributor. On the wing, Puerto Rico employs steady veteran role players in Tayra Meléndez, Brianna Jones, and Allison Gibson.
Unfortunately, Puerto Rico’s lack of size causes problems at both ends of the court, especially in the post but also at the guard spots. Guirantes is the team’s only consistent threat to score right at the rim, so generating efficient offense can be a struggle even with the team featuring a number of talented shooters. Meanwhile, rim protection is a serious problem defensively.
At the last global tournament, the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup, Puerto Rico had a historic performance, not only winning a game on that stage for the first time but reaching the quarterfinals where it lost 79-60 to Canada. However, since then, Puerto Rico has not had a particularly strong run of form in international competition. First, it only finished fourth at last year’s AmeriCup Women despite being at full strength, unlike the USA and Canada. Then, at the Pre-Olympic Qualifying Tournament in November, Puerto Rico only mustered single-digit victories over Colombia and Venezuela, countries with a combined one appearance at a global tournament. Finally, in February at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, Puerto Rico continued to struggle, losing to France and China by 48 and 36 points, respectively, and barely squeaking past a New Zealand team that, on top of not having qualified for a global tournament since the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, lacked four of its best six players from the 2023 FIBA Women’s Asia Cup. Avoiding major blowouts - its most competitive match in Tokyo was a 27-point loss to Australia in its final game - may be the best Puerto Rico can expect, but it certainly has the talent to be competitive as long as it can avoid a frigid spell from the perimeter.
X-Factor: Isalys Quiñones
While Puerto Rico does count on a couple of traditional post players in reserve roles, it generally prefers to play small and fast. Isalys Quiñones playing the 5 represents a safe mid-point between featherweight lineups with Hollingshed at center and slower, less offensively skilled lineups with more traditional but still-undersized post players commanding the interior. The former Dartmouth star is a capable outside shooter who can move her feet decently well and protect Hollingshed from the most difficult interior matchups. That being said, she struggled mightily at last year’s AmeriCup, shooting 3-for-22 (13.6%) from the field and missing all six of her 3-point attempts. Getting consistent minutes from Quiñones could help balance Puerto Rico’s offense and defense while keeping the lane open for drivers like Guirantes and San Antonio to navigate to the rim.
WNBA-Specific Interest
Guirantes was a highly touted prospect in the 2021 WNBA Draft before ultimately falling to the second round. She has yet to catch on in the WNBA, not quite good enough to carve out position as a scorer and playmaker but also not quite good enough of a shooter to absorb a strictly ancillary role. Still, she plays at the highest levels in Europe and remains on the cusp of making it in the W. Hollingshed, a former No. 8 overall pick, has participated in two WNBA training camps, most recently this season with the Phoenix Mercury, but has yet to make a regular season roster. While Hollingshed’s frame can cause problems for her against strong post players at both ends of the court, she still remains a 6-foot-3 rim protector with legitimate shooting touch and the willingness to unleash 3-pointers at volume.
Who’s Not Here: Point guard Jennifer O’Neill has traditionally led the Puerto Rico offense but has not played since October when her team was eliminated in the Puerto Rican league semifinals and will not be included on this tournament’s roster. Former WNBA player Jazmon Gwathmey was the fourth-leading scorer at the Tokyo Olympics but has not been present in the squad despite continuing to play professionally in Italy.
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Great story. Love this.