2024 WNBA Expansion Draft: Projected Protected Lists and Valkyries Picks

The expansion draft which will stock the initial roster for the Golden State Valkyries is imminent. We take a detailed look at who teams will protect, and who might be left for the Valkyries to take.

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. We recently joined Bluesky! So please check us out there in addition to our other social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. If you like our work, be sure to also check out our stats site and our podcast,

Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?

---

In just nine days, the WNBA will conduct its first expansion draft since Atlanta stocked their initial roster back in 2008. I did a mock version of that too, scarily enough, which makes me feel incredibly old (I can't link to it because the website doesn't exist in the same form anymore). I wrote a complete explainer on the expansion draft rules a while back, but these are the basics:

The Golden State Valkyries can select one player from each of the existing 12 teams. The teams can protect six players from being selected, including anyone on their roster at the end of the 2024 season, and anyone that they hold rights to. The Valkyries can select a maximum of one player who would become an unrestricted free agent, with the expectation that they would then core that player to retain their rights in the upcoming free agency period.

This obviously means some tough decisions for some of the other teams around the league. Especially when you include players whose rights are on the books but who weren't around in 2024, some teams have a lot more than six players whom they'd like to retain. They're allowed to make deals with Golden State to avoid taking certain players, or even to trade for available players from other teams that would instantly move through Golden State when the expansion draft takes place. It's an interesting situation from various perspectives, not least the Valkyries fans wondering who they'll be watching in their inaugural season.

Before we approach the team situations one by one, some general notes. This is an unusual time to be facing an expansion draft. Apart from players under rookie-scale contracts (which are three years plus a team-option fourth year at the end), only two players in the entire league are signed beyond next season. This is due to the new broadcast deal and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that needs to be negotiated alongside it before the 2026 season, which everyone is anticipating will lead to a significant increase in salaries. That means that youth is even more vital to building a roster right now than it usually is. After next season, virtually everyone who's played at least five seasons in the WNBA is going to be a free agent. So if Golden State select those players they might have them for their debut season, but then they'll be free to walk away - just as they would if they play out the 2025 season elsewhere. Obviously, the Valkyries may back themselves to provide such a positive experience that players won't want to leave, but players whose rights they control beyond 2025 will be particularly valuable. Of course, every other team in the league knows all this as well. So unless you think your team is a contender to win a championship in 2025, many may prioritise protecting players who can help them beyond next year.

Let's take a look at who teams may have protected, and who that leaves available for selection by the Valkyries.

Atlanta Dream

The Dream get us off to a nice start by illustrating various different aspects of the protection options. They may not be a true contender but they're not going to want to give up any of their top players for nothing, which means the star perimeter of Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada will surely all be protected. They're too good to leave available, and would all have trade value if the Dream did want to cash in and switch to a semi-rebuild (even with Canada and Gray becoming unrestricted free agents (UFAs) after 2025). Whether the Dream would want to or not, there's no need to protect Tina Charles because she's a UFA who can't be cored anymore due to reaching the limit of two or more seasons played under a core contract. That means there's no point in Golden State using their sole UFA pick on her, and therefore no point in protecting her. Atlanta’s other impending UFAs, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus and Aerial Powers, had uninspiring and injury-hit seasons in 2024. With a new head coach on the way in there's a chance that a healthy Parker-Tyus in particular could return to her all-star form from the year before, but it seems likely that both she and Powers will be left unprotected. If Golden State decide that's their best option with their one UFA pick, the Dream will live with it.

Then it becomes a question of which of their young talents Atlanta believe in the most. They've worked to develop Naz Hillmon, and despite her limitations she's become an effective and hard-working post whom they'll likely want to keep. But then what? Haley Jones has had opportunities to impress in her first two seasons, and looked okay at times, but still hasn't really found a position or any consistency in her jump shot. Laeticia Amihere is still far more prospect than player. Maya Caldwell, Lorela Cubaj and Iliana Rupert are WNBA backups, with the last two consistently questionable to show up due to commitments overseas. Then there are their draft rights players. They took two young Australians in the 2024 draft, Nyadiew Puoch at No. 12 and Isobel Borlase at No. 20. Puoch is the athlete with all the 'tools' and athletic traits that draftniks fall in love with; Borlase is the more polished current player who went to the Olympics and played some rotation minutes on the wing for the Opals in Paris. They also still have the rights to Matilde Villa, a talented young Italian guard (although history suggests that Australians are significantly more likely to actually show up and play in the WNBA than Europeans). Just to round out their protection options, there's also Nia Coffey, who's been a solid enough WNBA rotation player at times in her career, but had a poor 2024 season. Also the long-forgotten rights to Spanish guard Maite Cazorla, who hasn’t shown up in the US since 2019.

I think the final two spots are probably down to Jones, Puoch and Borlase. The question is whether they feel like they've seen enough of Jones in two seasons to decide she's not really worth persevering with, or if they think there's a real player in there given more time. I'd be tempted to move on.

Projected protectees: Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada, Naz Hillmon, Nyadiew Puoch, Isobel Borlase

Golden State pick options: Jones to see what they can make of her unusual skillset, Amihere because everyone loves the raw athleticism, or Coffey for some veteran solidity. Or maybe even Parker-Tyus if the UFA options don't get better in the next 11 lists.

Chicago Sky

As with Atlanta and several upcoming teams, the first few protectees are very straightforward for Chicago. Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, their young building blocks drafted just this year, are going nowhere. She's about to become a restricted free agent, but the same is presumably also true of Chennedy Carter, who returned to the league and illustrated her obvious offensive talent in 2024. Then it gets a little more complicated.

It doesn't seem likely that they'll be too worried about losing any of their impending unrestricted free agents - Isabelle Harrison, Diamond DeShields and Brianna Turner - all of whom might leave regardless of the expansion draft. Or particularly concerned about their rights to Europeans Nikolina Milić and Maria Conde. That leaves three spots with veteran guards Lindsay Allen, Moriah Jefferson and Rachel Banham, recently extended post Elizabeth Williams, and the restricted rights to Michaela Onyenwere and Dana Evans still on the table. Jefferson is both overpaid and frequently injured, so if Golden State want to take her off Chicago's hands the Sky will probably be perfectly happy. Having signed her to a very reasonable one-year contract extension, they probably want to keep Williams. After that, it's a group of players who've had flashes at WNBA level without ever consistently proving they're more than backups. Onyenwere and Evans are the youngest, so maybe they'll keep them around to see if a new head coach can maximise their talents; with Allen and Banham we pretty much know exactly what they are at this point. Personally, I'd keep Allen over Evans to lead this team at the point until a better option presents itself.

Projected protectees: Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, Chennedy Carter, Elizabeth Williams, Michaela Onyenwere, Dana Evans

Golden State pick options: If left available, I'd take Allen as a solid point guard option. Banham seems to be beloved wherever she goes, so wouldn't be a bad addition. Harrison would be a similar kind of veteran, if-there-are-no-better-options UFA pick as taking Parker-Tyus from Atlanta.

Connecticut Sun

As with Charles in Atlanta, there is no need to protect either DeWanna Bonner or Brionna Jones because both have reached the limit of core years so aren't options for Golden State's UFA pick. Alyssa Thomas, on the other hand, does have to be included among Connecticut's protectees. Midseason acquisition Marina Mabrey and starting guards Tyasha Harris and DiJonai Carrington will probably also be protected, especially if the Sun are hoping to retain Thomas, Bonner and Jones to make another playoff push with this same core.

That leaves essentially three players that the Sun are likely to be concerned about, with two protected spots remaining. Olivia Nelson-Ododa has been a solid backup post in her first three WNBA seasons, and could be particularly important if Jones walks away in free agency. Veronica Burton was waived by Dallas, but was a useful addition to Connecticut's backcourt options after the Sun picked her up (and her jump shot keeps showing flashes of improvement). Both are still only 24 years old. But French guard Leila Lacan, taken at No. 10 overall in the 2024 draft, is only 20 and a real talent. Obviously, there are concerns with international players over whether they'll show up to play in the WNBA, especially players like Lacan who are already integrated into strong European national team set-ups. But I think the pure potential there likely wins out over what they found in Burton.

Unrestricted free agents Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall, the reserved rights to Caitlin Bickle, and the draft rights to Abbey Hsu, won't be of huge concern to the Sun.

Projected protectees: Alyssa Thomas, Marina Mabrey, Tyasha Harris, DiJonai Carrington, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Leila Lacan

Golden State pick options: Burton looks like the easy choice if the protectees are as above. If she’s protected instead of any of those six, take the player she replaces.

Dallas Wings

With a new general manager in Curt Miller and a to-be-named new head coach, part of the problem in projecting Dallas's decisions is that they're approaching this group with fresh eyes. We knew that Latricia Trammell didn't seem to think much of Stephanie Soares or Lou Lopez Sénéchal, and that she lost faith in Turkish guard Sevgi Uzun, but maybe Miller will see things somewhat differently. Regardless, the first three protected players are likely Arike Ogunbowale, Teaira McCowan and Satou Sabally. Sabally has been hurt a lot and is about to become an unrestricted free agent, but is immensely talented and will surely be cored by Dallas themselves. Even if she wants out and the Wings were willing to accommodate that desire, you protect her first, then core her, then trade her for as much as you can get. Natasha Howard is another unrestricted free agent who's reached the limit of core seasons, so there's no point in protecting her.

After that, it's yet again a case of "which youngsters do you like the most?" Jacy Sheldon was the No. 5 pick just this year, so she will probably be protected after working her way into the starting lineup during the season. With Dallas recently landing the No. 1 overall selection in the 2025 draft, and therefore hoping to add UConn's Paige Bueckers, Sheldon may lose that starting spot - but could actually be more comfortable as a combo-guard backup who isn't always asked to play point alongside Ogunbowale. Then it's Sénéchal, Soares, Uzun, forward Maddy Siegrist (who was starting to break out in 2024 before injury struck), post Kalani Brown, little-used wing Jaelyn Brown, the suspended rights to former No. 2 overall pick Awak Kuier, and the draft rights to Paige Robinson and Carla Leite. Robinson was a 2023 third-rounder who agreed not to sign and likely won't be a concern, but Leite is another French guard taken in 2024's first round. Connecticut's Lacan is probably considered the bigger talent - and has certainly made more progress within the French national team set-up - but Leite is a skilled option as well.

I think Siegrist showed enough in her strong stretch before getting hurt last year to be protected. After that, the sixth spot is an absolute crapshoot. There are arguments for all of Kuier, Soares and Leite at a minimum. After all the work he put in with young, raw bigs in Los Angeles and Connecticut, I think Miller might still have some optimism for what Soares can become (although Kuier is actually younger, despite her extra years in the WNBA). But that's at best an educated guess.

Projected protectees: Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally, Teaira McCowan, Jacy Sheldon, Maddy Siegrist, Stephanie Soares

Golden State pick options: Maybe they think Kalani Brown could be a starting center for them and essentially replicate what McCowan does for Dallas. I'd probably take a swing on Leite showing up or Kuier returning and one day coming anywhere near her ceiling, but those require significantly more vision and optimism.

Indiana Fever

This is another team with new people in charge of the organisation compared to last year, but the first five protected players seem incredibly straightforward. Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, NaLyssa Smith and Aliyah Boston - the starting five for the final weeks of the 2024 regular season - are all likely to be protected. Clark and Boston are the young star building blocks; Mitchell showed she's still an elite guard and can play alongside Clark, so will surely be cored by the Fever (and then traded for a haul if she demands a move); Hull played her way into a starting role when she discovered a remarkably accurate 3-point shot after the Olympic break; and Smith is too valuable to lose for nothing. The final one is the interesting case, because Smith struggled for much of 2024, often losing the faith of then-head coach Christie Sides and being benched for veteran post Temi Fagbenle by the end of games. But Smith is still only 24, 6-foot-4 and mobile, skilled offensively and only a couple of years removed from being the No. 2 overall pick. You either let Stephanie White try to teach her defense, or you trade her for a meaningful return. You don't just let Golden State take her away for nothing.

The sixth protected spot is more debatable, especially with new people at the helm. Fagbenle was their next most important player in 2024, but she's 32 years old and decided she was happy to live without playing in the WNBA for four consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2023. So fellow veteran post Damiris Dantas, or one of their backup guards (Kristy Wallace, Grace Berger) could instead be an option if White has a fondness for any of them. Katie Lou Samuelson drifted out of the rotation during the season and they'd probably be happy for Golden State to take her expensive contract off their hands. Leaving Victaria Saxton and veteran unrestricted free agent guard Erica Wheeler unprotected isn't much of a risk.

Fagbenle seemed to enjoy her time and role in Indiana in 2024, so my guess is that she is the final protectee and they try to re-sign her as a restricted free agent. But that final spot could go various different ways and not be much of a surprise.

Projected protectees: Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, NaLyssa Smith, Temi Fagbenle

Golden State pick options: So many teams have fallen into the belief that Samuelson can help them, so they'd probably take her. But they shouldn't. I thought Berger showed signs of promise as a rookie in 2023 before Sides gave up on her, so I'd take her and see what she can do.

Las Vegas Aces

Well, the first four protected names are glaringly obvious. A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum don't get to leave, especially not for free. Plum is slated to become an unrestricted free agent - which is unusual in Las Vegas, where they've typically managed to extend the contracts of their stars to prevent this situation - but she'll surely be protected and cored by the Aces. As mentioned above with other stars elsewhere, you protect and core these players first, then trade them for value if you're going to let them leave - you don't just let them saunter into a Valkyries uniform.

The final two protected spots are wildly up in the air. Alysha Clark has been important for the Aces over the last couple of years as a versatile forward, and would be a leader for Golden State, but she's the oldest player in the league not named Taurasi - she doesn't seem likely to be their sole UFA pick. Tiffany Hayes is also slated to become a UFA and might be a more realistic Valkyries option, despite technically announcing her retirement from the WNBA before joining Las Vegas early in the 2024 season. However, if she doesn't want to play in Golden State, there's always the risk she'd just retire again. Then there's offensively-challenged center Kiah Stokes, fellow big Megan Gustafson, young wings Kierstan Bell and Kate Martin, and social media darling Sydney Colson. Even the draft rights to Elizabeth Kitley, taken in 2024's second round despite a long-term injury, could be an option. The reserved rights to Queen Egbo are unlikely to be a consideration.

I'm really not sure here. If they've had assurances from Hayes that she wants to re-sign and come back, I think she might get one of those last two spots. She's just the type of player that Golden State might take to lead their perimeter offense (similar to what Atlanta did with Betty Lennox 16 years ago) and provide some excitement - and who might not mind taking $249,244 to take as many shots as she wants in the Bay in 2025. Beyond that, the fact that Becky Hammon is probably the one making the decisions right now on these matters might influence things (as the Aces are yet to hire a new general manager). There's not much point keeping players without Hammon having enough trust in them to play them. That leans me towards Stokes, who's dependable, even if she frequently gets played off the floor in the playoffs. Martin or Kitley would probably be next on my list, because Hammon at least liked Martin for a while last year, while Kitley is an unknown.

Projected protectees: A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, Tiffany Hayes, Kiah Stokes

Golden State pick options: Given her remarkable fanbase, Martin would surely be a tempting choice. Maybe they see what Bell has without all that perimeter talent taking up the minutes in front of her. Or actually give Gustafson consistent minutes and watch her pile up numbers (or take Kitley and hope she's a younger variant of the same thing).

Los Angeles Sparks

The first two protected spots for Los Angeles are similar to the pattern from fellow lottery team Chicago, with their two prized rookies Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson going nowhere. Assuming the Sparks don't want to actively bottom out, the next two probably go to Dearica Hamby and Azurá Stevens, both of whom signed contract extensions during the 2024 season. Even if LA were to decide they wanted to tank and try to align their roster more along the Brink/Jackson timeline, Hamby and Stevens probably have some trade value.

Then it again becomes a list of players who are yet to prove they're more than WNBA backups, role players, or low-end rotation options. Stephanie Talbot is a useful wing but has turned 30; Lexie Brown has flashed real perimeter scoring talent but continues to battle Crohn's disease; Julie Allemand is a solid Belgian point guard who's only ever showed up for two WNBA seasons; Aari McDonald, Rae Burrell and even Zia Cooke have flashed talent on the perimeter without producing remotely consistently; Li Yueru is 6-foot-7 and skilled but still more potential than reality at WNBA level. They even have the draft rights to Aussie guard Shaneice Swain, who's starting to make an impression right now with Sydney in the WNBL. Layshia Clarendon announced their retirement back in September, which at least removes one possibility, and if Golden State want Kia Nurse as their UFA pick then LA will be fine with it.

I honestly consider those last couple of spots pretty wide open, especially with a new head coach in Lynne Roberts who may view some of the players differently from Curt Miller. I think they probably expose Brown because the illness has caused her such problems, and resign themselves to losing Talbot if necessary. I don't think Cooke or Swain have shown enough to be major concerns if the Valkyries were to take them away. That leaves Allemand, McDonald, Burrell and Li. I think they traded for Allemand knowing she wanted to play in LA, only for injury to scupper that plan. And 6-foot-7 bigs don't grow on trees. But you could talk me into lots of possibilities for these final spots.

Projected protectees: Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson, Dearica Hamby, Azurá Stevens, Julie Allemand, Li Yueru

Golden State pick options: Talbot is the better player right now, but Burrell is six years younger if they want a wing with potential for growth. Otherwise, if the protection choices are the six above, McDonald would seem to be the best choice.

Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota changed some of the calculations around their protection decisions by becoming a championship contender in 2024. Whereas beforehand they might've been expected to prioritise youth and potential growth, now it's at least as much about preserving the group that came within millimeters of a championship. Given that, it seems unlikely that they'd expose any of the core starting five which carried them to that point in 2024. So Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton will probably all be protected.

Given that, the Lynx only have one spot left to work with. Bench players like Natisha Hiedeman, Cecilia Zandalasini, Dorka Juhász and Myisha Hines-Allen were all important pieces for them in 2024 - all more important, in fact, than 2023 No. 2 overall pick Diamond Miller. However, I still think that final spot will go to Miller. She struggled early in 2024, then got hurt, and never really managed to crack the rotation after returning. But she was meant to be a big part of Minnesota's future, and unless they have inside knowledge from their medical staff that she's going to be permanently limited by physical issues, then that's probably still the plan. Even if it's not, she probably still has meaningful trade value.

As UFAs, Hiedeman and Hines-Allen seem unlikely choices for Golden State, and Zandalasini has missed a lot of WNBA seasons which might scare them off unless they hear a real commitment through her agent. But Juhász would be a disappointing loss for Minnesota. The suspended rights to Jessica Shepard are also potentially valuable, plus this year's No. 8 pick Alissa Pili and the draft rights to 2023 first-rounder Maïa Hirsch would also be left available.

Projected protectees: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton, Diamond Miller

Golden State pick options: Juhász has looked like a useful WNBA player, but I'd be very tempted to take Shepard instead. For the record, when I wondered recently on social media if Shepard was done with the WNBA after skipping the 2024 season, her agent responded by saying she'd be back in 2025 with a vengeance.

New York Liberty

New York Liberty center Han Xu. Photo credit: Chris Poss

Okay, brace yourselves Liberty fans. The thing is, when your GM's done their job, and part of you winning a championship was the significantly improved bench, you're supposed to have players that you'd be disappointed to lose in an expansion draft. It makes sense that some of Golden State's best players should come from the league's best teams. Not that it makes it any easier to lose players you've become attached to.

As with Minnesota, when you just rode a core group to the Finals (and a parade, in New York's case), you don't want to let that core be broken up. So the playoff starting five of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Leonie Fiebich are all likely to be protected. Some of that group may not be at their absolute peak anymore, but they're not far enough past it to move on just yet. There are also always concerns that international players might skip WNBA seasons, but Fiebich was good enough (and is young enough) to be protected even with that potential issue.

While there are lots (and lots) of players that the Liberty would be disappointed to lose, I honestly don't think the final pick is that difficult, either. Age is the primary factor, with Nyara Sabally a 24-year-old mobile 6-foot-5 center who has the faith of head coach Sandy Brondello (which isn't something she hands out freely). Sabally has had a lot of injury issues, which is a concern and might make the Liberty consider other options with this sixth spot, but I think she's too valuable to overlook. Especially with Stewart and Jones getting older and maybe needing to play fewer minutes in upcoming seasons.

That will leave a whole host of options for Golden State. I'm assuming Stewart will be protected and cored, but that leaves fellow veteran UFA Courtney Vandersloot as an option for the Valkyries. She turns 36 before next season starts and was largely played out of New York's rotation, but would obviously be a leader and a recognisable name addition for Golden State. Alternatively, Kayla Thornton remains a very solid combo-forward (that New York would hate to lose); Marquesha Davis rarely saw the court as a rookie but drew comparisons to Kahleah Copper when drafted; Ivana Dojkic and Jaylyn Sherrod provided decent backup point guard minutes when required; and then there are all the additional options who didn't appear in 2024. Marine Johannès and Han Xu have both shown what they can do at the WNBA level and became beloved by the New York fanbase when they were around. Rebekah Gardner had a great rookie year in Chicago before getting hurt (and New York may be hoping she can replace Thornton or Kennedy Burke if they lose one or both). The Liberty also have the rights to Spanish post Raquel Carrera and French point guard Marine Fauthoux, young and talented players that viewers of European basketball will be well aware of.

This is the rare team where the decisions may be significantly tougher for Golden State than the team making the protections.

Projected protectees: Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Leonie Fiebich, Nyara Sabally

Golden State pick options: Vandersloot might be tempting for the name and track record, but I wouldn't want to use my one UFA pick on a 36-year-old. Johannès is nearly 30, and I'd be concerned about her showing up for a franchise she has no relationship with. Unless you really believe that Davis will turn into Copper, or want Thornton as a veteran leader for all your young players, Han Xu has to be incredibly tempting. Unless her agent tells you she's done with the WNBA, you'd be adding a 6-foot-10 center who's still only 25 and would be an enormous draw for the large Asian-American community in the Bay Area.

Phoenix Mercury

The Mercury are one of the teams who, to be honest, barely need six protected spots. Four of them likely go to the four players they currently have under contract for next season - Kahleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen and Sophie Cunningham. Then you start wondering what to do with the last two.

Brittney Griner is yet another player who's about to become a UFA but doesn't need to be protected because she's reached the limit of seasons under the core designation. Diana Taurasi hasn't, but is obviously in a strange situation. No one quite knows whether she's going to retire (unless she's quietly informed the Mercury of a decision without telling the public), and there's also the question of whether you need to protect a 42-year-old who might well choose to retire if selected by a team she doesn't want to play for. But without a lot of other players they'd be too worried about losing, Phoenix may well protect her. Just in case.

Then you're left with options like Natasha Mack, Celeste Taylor, Charisma Osborne, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan and Amy Atwell for the final spot, unless they use it on UFA Monique Billings (which seems unlikely). It's probably Mack, who offered some reasonable defensive minutes as a fill-in for Griner, or maybe Taylor if they fell in love with her during her late-season stint. But it's unlikely to be hugely impactful either way.

Projected protectees: Kahleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen, Sophie Cunningham, Diana Taurasi, Natasha Mack

Golden State pick options: I guess it's Taylor? Monique Billings as the UFA pick is yet another mid-level veteran big to throw on the pile with options like Parker-Tyus, Harrison, Hines-Allen etc. if there aren't any better options.

Seattle Storm

The Storm have four obvious players to protect in Jewell Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Ezi Magbegor and Jordan Horston. Even if the recent headlines about conflict in the Storm camp are ultimately going to lead to someone like Loyd being moved, you protect her first and then work out a deal somewhere. Even at 31 years old and after a pretty horrendous shooting season in 2024, Loyd has far too much value to just let her go to Golden State for nothing in a fit of pique.

The final two spots are a little tricky because there aren't many worthwhile options. The only rights the Storm have are the draft rights to 2024 third-rounder Mackenzie Holmes, who sat out the 2024 season recovering from injury. Nika Mühl, who barely played in her rookie WNBA season and then blew out her knee almost immediately in Europe, is the only other player under contract. Everyone else is a UFA, with Gabby Williams probably the only one Seattle would be concerned about being taken by Golden State with their UFA pick (although you could potentially add Mercedes Russell to that Parker-Tyus, Harrison, Hines-Allen etc. list mentioned earlier). Nneka Ogwumike has reached the limit of core seasons, so she does not need to be protected.

So the fifth spot probably covers Williams in the hope she re-signs with Seattle (protecting her does not mean the Storm have to core her themselves, it just prevents Golden State from selecting her). The sixth could be fan-favorite Mühl (likely with no prospect of seeing her play again until 2026), Holmes if they really think she's worth it, or maybe even Russell. In some ways, leaving Russell available to potentially be Golden State's UFA pick - which would theoretically then lead to a $249,244 core contract for 2025 - would be doing Russell a favor. There's no way she'll make that much in any other scenario. I think they throw the sixth spot on Mühl.

Other impending Storm UFAs Sami Whitcomb, Victoria Vivians and Joyner Holmes aren't likely to be taken by the Valkyries (and would be replaceable if they were).

Projected protectees: Jewell Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Ezi Magbegor, Jordan Horston, Gabby Williams, Nika Mühl

Golden State pick options: Slim. Honestly, maybe the most likely team league-wide where the Valkyries might just say "pass". But unless they want Russell as their UFA pick I guess you take Mackenzie Holmes and if she's healthy they could sign her and take a look in training camp.

Washington Mystics

Last but not least, we have one of the more interesting situations for protection decisions around the league. Washington have young building blocks in Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards, who surely have to be protected. Ariel Atkins and Brittney Sykes are older, but far from over-the-hill and too good to leave available. Then it gets trickier.

Karlie Samuelson and Stefanie Dolson were both important rotation pieces for the Mystics last season, with both shooting very well from outside on significant volume. But Samuelson is 29, Dolson is about to turn 33, and this is likely a team planning for future seasons rather than trying to win right now. Similarly, Belgian guard Julie Vanloo played a lot of minutes for Washington in 2024 but is already 31. So do they prioritise the younger end of the roster instead? They have Australian guard Jade Melbourne, Malian post Sika Koné, and energetic forward Emily Engstler, all of whom are 24 or under and have flashed significant potential. Engstler in particular looked like she could be part of the future core in Washington during a late stretch of strong play in the 2024 season.

Also a consideration is Elena Delle Donne, who was cored by the Mystics prior to the 2024 season in order to retain value in a potential trade if she wanted to leave, only for Delle Donne to decide she was going to take time away from basketball when no deal materialised. Delle Donne is now 35 but could be an option for Golden State's UFA pick if the Mystics don't protect her.

I'm honestly not at all sure what they'll do here. Any of Samuelson, Dolson, Engstler, Melbourne, Koné and Delle Donne in those last two spots would not hugely surprise me. We haven't even mentioned Sug Sutton, reserved rights to Bernadett Határ and Li Meng, and draft rights to young Europeans Nastja Claessens and Txell Alarcon. I think they probably reluctantly leave Delle Donne available, although they'll probably have greater knowledge of whether she's even interested in playing basketball anymore. Samuelson and Dolson will both have trade value (although Dolson's relatively expensive), but I think you have to lean young. I think you protect Engstler and Koné (but I very nearly said Melbourne. Or Samuelson).

Projected protectees: Shakira Austin, Aaliyah Edwards, Ariel Atkins, Brittney Sykes, Emily Engstler, Sika Koné.

Golden State pick options: Given the difficulty of getting the list down to six, there are obviously lots of good options here. They'll have to do due diligence on whether Delle Donne would be interested in playing so far away from home (or at all). Even if she wants to play but not for them, there could be value in taking her as their UFA choice and then later trading her like the Mystics wanted to. Otherwise I'd take Samuelson for her 3-and-D skills (and attitude which always brightens the atmosphere around her), or Melbourne for the potential she still has to improve.

---

After all that, if the protections and picks played out as I laid out above, the Valkyries would end up with a roster something like this:

Haley Jones

Lindsay Allen

Veronica Burton

Awak Kuier

Grace Berger

Kate Martin

Aari McDonald

Jessica Shepard

Han Xu

Celeste Taylor

Mercedes Russell

Jade Melbourne

It's not the most balanced roster in the world, lacking wings and shooting, but that's inevitable. You take as much talent as you can and balance things out later. I don't think there are going to be great options available with that one UFA pick, unless they can talk Delle Donne into a return (or maybe Vegas leave Tiffany Hayes off their list). The various veteran posts who might be available are of a similar enough level that I took Russell in the example above because Seattle have no one else worth selecting. Russell would be overpaid on a supermax core contract, but it would only be for one year and unless the Valkyries manage to make a big splash in free agency they're likely to have lots of cap room.

However, this is in the very boring scenario where Golden State simply look at the unprotected players from each franchise, select one from each team, and call it a night. Back in 2008, Atlanta insta-traded two of their expansion selections to other teams for different players, and shifted around multiple picks in the upcoming college draft while acquiring an extra pick in return for agreeing not to take certain players from Indiana. So come back on Friday for my suggestions of possible trades that Golden State might make beyond merely selecting players, and deals that other teams might be interested in once they see the players left available by their rivals. This could still get a lot more interesting.

---

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.