Part 2: The NCAA Is Moving the Three-Point Line. What Will Be the Impact Next Season?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
The NCAA is moving the women's three-point line from 20 feet, 9 inches to 22 feet, 1.75 inches. What effect will moving the line back nearly 17 inches have on teams' offenses? How will it affect defensive game plans? Two likely outcomes are better spacing on the court and potentially more inside-out action because defenders will have more distance to travel back to their matchup from the help side.
After taking a look at trends in the number of three-point attempts and percentages in Part 1 of this series, let's see what D-I coaches and players think.
Iowa State women’s basketball is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country. Last season they attempted 782 threes—making 285 of them (third and fourth in D-I, respectively). ISU head coach Bill Fennelly is entering his 27th year at the helm and is one of just a dozen active D-I coaches to have compiled more than 700 wins.
Historically, Fennelly’s teams shoot a lot of triples. In fact, ISU holds the nation’s longest streak—going back to 1995—for consecutive games (827) with a made three-pointer. ISU has made 6,591 threes over the course of the streak and has made 10 or more threes in 243 games.
Her Hoop Stats talked to Coach Fennelly to get his thoughts about the new three-point line. Fennelly believes the new distance may actually increase the number of threes his team attempts because spacing will be even better for his players to drive and kick.
Fennelly also expects that players who already shoot the three well will benefit from the change. Conversely, teams who don’t like to shoot the three will be at more of a disadvantage with the line change and will likely face more zone defense from opposing teams.
Although incoming freshmen will now be shooting three’s almost 2.5 feet farther than they were in high school, Fennelly has been preparing his recruits for the change. “We told our new incoming kids for a year that this was coming,” he said. “Our current players tend to shoot behind the men’s line anyway, so we have no real concerns about them adjusting.”
Overall, Fennelly thinks that the increase in distance will not be a big change—and may even help ISU a little. But he has a prediction for teams who can’t shoot the three: “They are already behind and it will just get worse.”
Her Hoop Stats also spoke with Mike Neighbors, head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks who has led his alma mater to the best four-year period of sustained success in program history. In his eight seasons as a head coach including four at the University of Washington, Neighbors has garnered 176 wins. He has coached many sharpshooters, including current WNBA players Chelsea Dungee, Destiny Slocum, and Kelsey Plum, who just led USAW to their first 3x3 Olympic gold medal in Tokyo. With his fast-paced, uptempo style of play, Neighbor's teams tend to shoot a lot of triples (and hit them at a high rate). Last season, the Razorbacks made 267 three-pointers, shooting 38.9% (seventh and fourth in the country, respectively).
Neighbors said one possible ramification from the line change is an increase in fouls committed, since efficient three-point shooting and free throw trips often go hand in hand. With the line being farther back, defenders will have a longer distance to travel and are more likely to be out of position on drives, causing them to commit more fouls. Arkansas, who ranked first nationally for D-I last season in both free throw trips (307) and free throws made (468), would stand to profit from even more trips to the charity stripe.
Neighbors noted that most of his players often elected to shoot behind the men's line during the past two seasons due to the confusion of multiple lines painted on the court. In terms of the total number of three-point attempts for Arkansas, Neighbors predicts that number to decrease slightly this year. With more space to drive, he thinks his players will get to the rim more. Arkansas also graduated two players who accounted for 41% of their made three-pointers last year (Dungee and Slocum).
Looking forward, Neighbors predicts that this small change in distance will likely have a BIG effect on recruiting for years to come. "I would tell you it's [already] affected some of our recruiting, too—the length that we're looking for in our players," he said. Because Arkansas plans to take advantage of a bigger driving lane or a more open three—they want kids who can do both.
Overall, Neighbors is in favor of the new three-point line. "It's good that we're getting it to a more consistent spot for all levels, all genders,” he said. “It's better for the overall game that we all get closer to playing by the same rules as much as we can."
Now that we have gained the perspective of two different D-I coaches, let's see what one of the top three-point shooters in the nation thinks. Rising senior Taylor Robertson has averaged 44% on three-pointers during her first three seasons as an Oklahoma Sooner. Although she is often face-guarded, Robertson's quick release and ability to move off the ball makes her a challenge for opposing teams to defend. Robertson made 86 three-pointers last season, averaging 3.6 makes per game (fifth and fourth in the nation, respectively). Opposing teams may try to chase her off the three-point line, but she is also deadly from the charity stripe. Last season, she was seventh in the nation in free throw percentage, going 56-for-57 on the season (98.2%).
In terms of adjusting to the greater distance, Robertson said she and her teammates are in the gym getting tons of shots up from the new line. "[We are] getting comfortable and used to it so I don't think it will affect our number of attempts very much."
Robertson, like other D-I women's players, has been playing on courts with multiple lines the past two seasons. Because distinguishing which line was theirs was so challenging, she estimates that 70 to 75% of her threes last season were behind the men's line.
Robertson is excited about the line change. She said it will open up the floor more and give her and her teammates more space for drive and kick.
"I think it will impact women's basketball in a great way,” she said. “It will show that girls can shoot just as far as the guys can. It will be a lot more fun to watch with so much more space in the middle, and with the people who shoot deep threes it will be fun to watch."
Be sure to check back with Her Hoop Stats to see how the change in the three-point line impacts the women's game this season.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.