ACC Recap: Bubble Watch Edition
Which teams still have work to do to secure a tournament bid?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
With most ACC teams having just four regular-season games left, it is time to look at who is safely in the tournament versus those on the bubble. While the committee looks at the entire body of work when determining seeding, recency bias combined with ACC tournament success make these next two weeks incredibly important for programs either trying to hang on or sneak into the field with an at-large bid.
It is important to remember that out of the 68-team tournament, only 36 spots are up for grabs, with the other 32 given out to conference tournament champions. For four ACC schools, they will have to impress down the stretch to secure a bid.
Locks:
Louisville (AP: 3, HHS: 4 , NET: 4) - Obviously some teams are not the focus of this article, as the Cardinals are safely a top seed no matter what happens down the stretch. They moved up to a one seed and the fourth team overall in the committee's recent bracket reveal. Louisville’s priority will first be securing a fifth consecutive ACC regular-season title, and then the postseason ACC crown that has eluded them the past four seasons.
No team in the conference is playing better than the Cardinals right now, demolishing No. 18 Notre Dame 73-47 behind stellar performances from their big three of Emily Engstler, Kianna Smith, and Hailey Van Lith. At this point, Louisville is the favorite in my eyes to win the conference tournament.
NC State (AP: 4, HHS: 3, NET: 2) - The Wolfpack have been the opposite success story of Louisville in recent seasons. Back-to-back tourney champs, NC State has not captured a regular-season crown in over 30 years. With the tiebreaker over Louisville under their belt, only Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech stand in the way of program history.
NC State also picked up two impressive wins this week, beating Boston College 85-78 in overtime and Duke 77-62, both on the road. The Wolfpack continue to thrive on offensive diversity, with five players in double figures in both contests. NC State kept their spot as the third team overall in the second NCAA committee bracket reveal.
Notre Dame (AP: 19, HHS: 27, NET: 20) - The Fighting Irish are safely in the field, and are around a four or five seed in the latest projections. While the 26-point loss to Louisville was suboptimal, they get the Cardinals at home at the end of the season and can at least show improvement with a better result.
Dara Mabrey’s struggles have severely limited Notre Dame’s offense, and in both of their last two losses she has failed to score. On the other hand, Sonia Citron just secured her 6th ACC Freshman of the Week Award and has been very solid since joining the starting lineup late in the season. Notre Dame was the third and final ACC team in the NCAA top-16 bracket reveal, coming in at No. 14.
Georgia Tech (AP: 16, HHS: 29, NET: 21) - The Yellow Jackets sit just below Notre Dame in both the Her Hoop Stats and NET rankings, but host the Fighting Irish at home tomorrow in what could be a pivotal game for seeding in both the ACC and NCAA tournament.
While Georgia Tech did not have the best week, losing to Virginia Tech and needing overtime to beat Clemson, their resilience in the face of excellence was commendable. Delicia Washington looked absolutely unstoppable for the Tigers, dropping 40 points and carrying the team on her back late in the game. Yet, the Yellow Jackets escaped with a win and only dropped five spots in the AP Poll.
North Carolina (AP: 24, HHS: 16, NET: 5) - North Carolina might be the hardest team to evaluate in the ACC. Their massive margins of victory have kept them at No. 5 in the NET rankings this entire season, while Her Hoop Stats has them at a perhaps more reasonable 16. But is that also too high? The Tar Heels only have one ranked win, and a maximum of three teams they beat will get an at-large bid.
They got out to their patented hot start against Virginia Tech this week, winning the first quarter 21-9. But like every other big game this year, once Deja Kelly was unable to get good shots the game plan fell apart, and the Hokies had mounted a comeback by halftime, eventually winning 66-61. I am still not convinced that UNC deserves being projected as a high seed with their 95th-ranked opponent average win percentage, but they have proven me wrong before.
Virginia Tech (AP: 23, HHS: 20, NET: 13) - Virginia Tech is finally ranked after ranked wins over Georgia Tech and North Carolina propelled the Hokies to No. 23 in the country and they might not stop climbing. Virginia Tech is the only ACC team to have Louisville and NC State on the schedule, and with a tournament spot already secured, the opportunity for a top-5 win will be welcomed by head coach Kenny Brooks.
The best thing for the Hokies is they have had to rely less on Elizabeth Kitley with the emergence of sophomore guard Georgia Amoore. The co-ACC player of the week has become an incredibly efficient three-point shooter, adding a whole new dynamic to the Virginia Tech offense.
On the Bubble:
Duke (AP: NA, HHS: 37 , NET: 40) - This is where things get interesting. Once a sure fire tournament lock ranked in the top-15, the Blue Devils have done nothing in over a month that suggests they deserve to make the tournament. Wins over Iowa and Notre Dame earlier in the season are the only thing keeping Duke in the conversation, and a 6-8 ACC record is far from ideal.
If losing to Florida State at home this week did not seal their fate, winning against Boston College or North Carolina to end the season will be necessary to at least avoid a play-in game. Maybe warm-up games against Virginia and Clemson will help get the Blue Devils in form, but Duke is in danger of a once-promising campaign ending in disappointment.
Boston College (AP: NA, HHS: 62, NET: 56) - The Eagles were so close to essentially punching their ticket to the dance last Thursday. Behind a hot start from Cameron Swartz, they had an opportunity to take down NC State but eventually lost in overtime 85-78. Similar to Duke, Boston College is lacking signature wins on their resume, and while an overtime loss shows potential, it might not be enough to guarantee a spot in the dance.
That being said, the Eagles have four very winnable games left in the regular season, and running the table would all but guarantee inclusion in the tournament.
Florida State (AP: NA, HHS: 75, NET: 54) and Miami (AP: NA, HHS: 81, NET: 64) - The odds are very slim for both of these programs, but it is too early to completely rule them out. Not only do they each have the same ACC record as BC (6-8), but each team has two ranked matchups remaining (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech for Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC for Florida State).
Both squads have some mediocre non-conference losses and each fell to Wake Forest, but an undefeated run to end the season plus a strong showing in the ACC tournament would at least give them a chance at consideration for a play-in spot.
See ya in 2023:
Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Virginia
ACC Blunders of the Week:
The biggest reason that Georgia Tech and North Carolina should be bummed about their losses this week is due to the format of the ACC Tournament. The 1-4 seeds get a double bye, meaning they have one less game to play than seeds 5-9. In a deep ACC where most teams can beat anyone on a good night, getting a guaranteed spot in the quarterfinals cannot be overlooked. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech now have the inside track to securing the coveted three and four seeds.
Important Game Tracker:
No. 3 Louisville @ No. 24 North Carolina, Thursday, February 17th
HHS Winner Prediction: Louisville (62.0%)
No. 19 Notre Dame @ No. 16 Georgia Tech, Thursday, February 17th
HHS Winner Prediction: Georgia Tech (59.6%)
No. 23 Virginia Tech @ No. 3 Louisville, Sunday, February 20th
HHS Winner Prediction: Louisville (81.6%)
James’ Weekly ACC Power Rankings:
Tier 1
Louisville (22-2) ⇧1
NC State (23-3) ⇩1
Tier 2
Notre Dame (19-6)
Virginia Tech (19-6) ⇧2
Georgia Tech (19-6) ⇩1
North Carolina (19-5) ⇩1
Tier 3
Duke (15-9)
Boston College (16-9)
Tier 4
Florida State (13-11)
Miami (14-10)
Tier 5
Wake Forest (13-12)
Syracuse (11-13)
Pittsburgh (11-14)
Clemson (9-17)
Virginia (3-20)
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.