ACC Roundup: The rest is still unwritten...
Games Played 1/29-2/11
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Fifteen of the 18 teams in the ACC will make the conference tournament in Duluth, Georgia next month. Barring any craziness, Duke and Louisville are highly likely to land 1-2 in the ACC Tournament seedings.
On the flip side, BC’s best remaining win probability is 37.4% against Wake Forest, while Pitt’s is 29.5% at SMU, so they’re essentially eliminated.
SMU has a slightly better chance , but the Mustangs have remaining games against North Carolina and Notre Dame, plus the California swing against Stanford and Cal. SMU’s win probability in all four of those games is 6.6% or below.
If we pair that with the fact that Wake Forest and Florida State, the two teams right above SMU, already have two-win cushions for that last tournament slot, and assume the remaining games for Demon Deacons, Seminoles and Mustangs go the way our predictor expects them to, both Wake Forest and Florida State would finish with more wins than SMU.
That leaves us with 13 teams vying for seeds 3-15.
If we go with all the winners the Her Hoop Stats model predicts, this is what the final seedings would look like:
Duke (18-0)
Louisville (17-1)
North Carolina (13-5, wins head-to-head tiebreaker against NC State)
NC State (13-5, loses head-to-head tiebreaker against North Carolina)
Syracuse (12-6)
Virginia (11-7, wins head-to-head tiebreaker against Notre Dame)
Notre Dame (11-7, loses head-to-head tiebreaker against Virginia)
Stanford (10-8, wins tiebreaker with Cal due to split with NC State & North Carolina)
Cal (10-8, loses tiebreaker with Stanford due to 0-2 record against NC State & North Carolina)
Clemson (9-9, wins tiebreakers with Miami and Virginia Tech due to split with NC State and North Carolina)
Miami (9-9, wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Virginia Tech)
Virginia Tech (9-9, loses head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami)
Georgia Tech (7-11)
Florida State (5-11)
Wake Forest (4-14)
Of the 31 games on the calendar over the next two weeks, 15 are between the teams that would land on seed lines 3-15 in the above scenario, which means there’s potential for a lot of movement in the standings, and there’s plenty of games that will be worth watching that might not be on most people’s radar.
The team that would land on the three line, North Carolina, has one game against a team currently ahead of it (Duke) and two against teams currently expected to miss the conference tournament (SMU and Pitt). So the Tar Heels will have quite the chance to solidify its seed and earn a double bye in the tournament.
North Carolina’s Triangle rival, NC State, currently on the four-seed line, has the opposite problem of the Tar Heels. The Wolfpack visit Duke. Then, they have a trip to Notre Dame. Add in a home date with Syracuse, and the Wolfpack have the hardest schedule of any conference team over the next stretch, both in terms of NET ranking and projected conference tournament seed.
A bit behind NC State in terms of schedule difficulty, Clemson and Virginia also each face two fellow 3-15 seed-line teams and either Duke or Louisville. Florida State gets two fellow 3-15 squads, one that would miss the tournament and Louisville. Wake Forest gets one 3-15, one slated to miss the tournament, and Louisville. Cal, Stanford and Virginia Tech have all four of their games over the next stretch against teams in that 3-15 group,
HHS ACC Player of the Bi-Week: Toby Fournier, Duke
As noted in my last roundup, Duke and Louisville, the two teams at the top of the standings, are doing it mostly by committee. At the same time, it’s important to appreciate the jump Fournier has taken between her freshman and sophomore seasons and the effect it has had on the Blue Devils’ performance .
Fournier has improved her scoring by 4.8 points per game, her FG% by 2.6%, her rebounds per game by 2.5, her assists by 0.7 and her blocks by 1.1 over last season.
She is the only player in the country averaging at least 17 points, seven rebounds and two blocks per game.
Over the past two weeks, she averaged 19.5 points and 9.25 rebounds per game.
In Duke’s big win over Louisville, Fournier led all scorers with 15 points. She also led all players with three blocks and two steals, and tied teammates Riley Nelson and Taina Mair for the lead with nine rebounds.
Other Performances of Note (alphabetically):
Milan Brown, Wake Forest: Scored 30, pulled down 11 rebounds and dished out five assists in the Demon Deacons’ 109-103 triple-overtime loss to Virginia, just one of seven such performances this season.
Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame: Scored 37 points, grabbed nine rebounds, dished out three assists and grabbed four steals in Notre Dame’s 78-66 win over Stanford. It’s her second such performance this season, and she’s the only player in the country with such stat lines.
Gisella Maul, Cal: One of just three conference players to put up two 15-plus point double-doubles over the past two weeks.
Khamil Pierre, NC State: Put up four 12-plus rebound double-doubles over the past two weeks.
Lara Somfai, Stanford: Finished with 15 points, 23 rebounds, eight assists, two steals and three blocks in a win over Pitt. That’s just the second such performance dating back to 2002-03.
Lulu Twidale, Cal: Scored 32 points in the Golden Bears’ 95-80 win over Pittsburgh, the second-highest scoring output by an ACC player over the past two weeks.
Caitlin Weimar, Virginia: Put up a 25-point, 10-rebound double-double in the Cavaliers’ 109-103 triple-overtime win over Wake Forest.
My votes and the results for ACC Player and Rookie of the Week the past two weeks
Please note: SIDs and coaches submit the players they want considered, we don’t have free rein to pick anyone
Votes for the week of 1/26:
Marissa’s Player of the Week: Laura Ziegler, Louisville
Marissa’s Rookie of the Week: Uche Izoje, Syracuse
Actual Player of the Week: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Actual Rookie of the Week: Milan Brown, Wake Forest
Yes, Hidalgo went off for 37 points to give Notre Dame the win over Stanford. However, her 22 points, six rebounds, six assists and two steals weren’t enough in Notre Dame’s 80-69 loss to Cal.
Laura Ziegler’s numbers weren’t as flashy as Hidalgo’s, but her Cardinals went 2-0. She also shot better than Hidalgo, took care of the ball better, had just four turnovers to Hidalgo’s 11, and only had one fewer assist.
Syracuse’s Laila Phelia, who averaged 22 points over the course of the week and shot better than 50% both overall and from three, was actually my “runner-up,” even though we only get one vote.
For Rookie of the Week, I very nearly voted for Brown, but her Wake Forest team going 0-2 was tough for me to overlook. In retrospect, I probably should’ve, as she averaged 21.5 points, 14.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists over the course of the week. First up, she had 30 points, including the bucket to send it to overtime in a defeat to Virginia. She followed that up with 13 points and 17 rebounds against Duke. Those 17 boards were the most by a Demon Deacon since 2021. As they say, that one’s on me.
Izoje, who got my vote, averaged 11.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in a 2-0 week for the Orange.
Votes for the week of 2/9:
Marissa’s Player of the Week: Toby Fournier, Duke
Marissa’s Rookie of the Week: Lara Somfai, Stanford
Actual Player of the Week: Toby Fournier, Duke
Actual Rookie of the Week: Lara Somfai, Stanford
Apologies and hat-tips to Cal’s Gisella Maul, who averaged 18.5 points and 12 rebounds over the course of the week, and Virginia’s Kymora Johnson, who averaged 23.5 points, five rebounds, five assists and 2.5 steals. However, not only did Toby Fournier average 20.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game over the past week, but she led the way in the Blue Devils’ upset road victory over then-No. 6 Louisville in the biggest game of conference play, scoring 15 points and adding nine rebounds, three blocks and two steals.
As for Rookie of the Week, when you do something that hasn’t been done in over 11 years, it’s really hard to argue with any accolades earned around it. As noted above, Somfai’s 15-point, 23-rebound, eight-assist, two-steal, three-block performance against Pitt is just the second time since 2002-03 that a player has put up such a stat line. It’s the first one by and/or against a power-conference opponent, as Illinois-Chicago’s Ruvanna Campbell had the exact same line against Northern Illinois on Nov. 17, 2014.
What to watch over the next two weeks:
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats newsletter. We’re excited to announce a new partnership with Hudl. Hudl’s industry-leading tools - Sportscode, Instat, and Fastmodel - elevate the preparation, performance, and player development of WNBA and NCAA teams. We appreciate their support and look forward to working with them to help bring more insight about the women’s game to you.
You can find me on Bluesky and HHS on Bluesky, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.