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The ACC Tournament is upon us, and there is a lot on the line. Some teams are serious contenders for the ACC Championship, others are fighting for a bid in the NCAA Tournament, and a few are just along for the ride.
If this past week taught us anything, it is that teams can get hot and stay hot, putting games out of reach before the halftime buzzer sounds. Louisville, Boston College, and Miami put up three of the most dominant first halves the ACC has seen all year on Sunday, so whose turn is it to go on a run in the tournament?
First Round
History does not favor the teams that compete on opening day in the ACC Tournament. In the past six postseasons, only one team (No. 13 Wake Forest in 2020) has won their first matchup and then upset a team in the second round.
The all-orange matchup of No. 12 Syracuse and No. 13 Clemson will feature two of the top five scorers in the ACC this season. Clemson’s Delicia Washington is averaging 16.6 points per game while Teisha Hyman is close behind with 15.9 per contest for Syracuse. On the flip side, these two teams are also by far the worst defensive teams in the conference, giving up 74.4 and 70.4 points per game respectively. These teams faced off once in the regular season, with Syracuse winning at home 86-46. With little to play for, expect an offensive shootout and another Orange (Syracuse, that is) win.
Next up is No. 10 Duke vs. No. 15 Pittsburgh, featuring the first of four ACC teams that are on the bubble according to ESPN’s bracketology. After losing just one non-conference game to South Carolina, Duke’s season unraveled in ACC play, as the Blue Devils have failed to beat a team with a winning record in over a month. Pittsburgh finished the season on a nine-game losing streak, finishing last in the ACC for the second time in three years. With the tournament taking place in their backyard, I think the Blue Devils win comfortably to keep their at-large bid hopes alive.
The last first-round matchup is perhaps the most surprising. After losing just one non-conference game, No. 11 Wake Forest seemed poised to defy expectations and be a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, possibly contending for an NCAA tournament bid. Despite ACC leading scorer Jewel Spear’s best efforts (18.4 PPG), the Demon Deacons got ice cold and won just three games in 2022. No. 14 Virginia, on the other hand, was picked unanimously as the worst team in the ACC in the preseason and squeaked out two wins at the end of the regular season to finish not dead last. Wake Forest won the first matchup between these two programs, but my prediction in Virginia gets the victory to put a cap on a bizarre season.
Second Round
All season long my ACC Weekly Recaps have had the power rankings separated by tiers since there were clear divisions of talent within the conference. Seeds 1-9 are all a tier (or more) ahead of the first-round teams.
That said, if No 7. Miami were to fall to Duke or Pittsburgh, their status as one of the teams on the right side of the bubble would surely take a hit. The Hurricanes have done enough to make the tournament, but an ugly loss when they needed to win most would leave a sour taste in the committee’s mouths. On the flip side, if Duke can stave off elimination once again, they would then need a miracle win over Louisville to make the NCAA tournament. There are too many good teams on the bubble for a win over Miami to push the needle enough.
The most exciting game of the second round is No. 8 Boston College vs. No 9. Florida State. These are the other two ACC teams on the bubble and with a few extra days to gameplan for this matchup, this could turn into a win or go home contest in the eyes of the committee.
Two weeks ago, the teams faced off in Tallahassee, where the Seminoles won 66-58. However, the Eagles shot 2 for 21 from the three-point line in that game, a miserable percentage that is sure to bounce back closer to their average of 34.2% on the season. With both teams being led by seniors in Taylor Soule for BC and Morgan Jones for FSU, the game will have a guaranteed high level of intensity. Despite Florida State having more recent success, knocking off a ranked Georgia Tech team, I believe Boston College is more well-rounded and will advance to the quarterfinals. Regardless of the outcome, both schools are worthy of tournament bids due to their ability to hang with top ACC teams all year.
Quarterfinals
This is where it gets interesting. The top two seeds, NC State and Louisville, have proven they are not invincible, especially against their most likely opponents. NC State needed overtime to beat Boston College late in the regular season and Louisville used a fourth-quarter comeback to barely beat Miami 69-66. But this is the playoffs. Wes Moore, who was recently named the ACC Coach of the Year, and Jeff Walz’s respective squads have the experience and talent on their side, and predicting this early of an exit would be a disservice to the fantastic season each school put together.
The other two matchups are a little less predictable. No. 5 Virginia Tech and No. 4 North Carolina split their season series, each winning a game at home. The Tar Heels are riding a four-game winning streak, but could the double-bye be a blessing and a curse? For a young team like North Carolina that thrives on energy and out-hustling opponents, having to wait around while their opponent gets a warm-up game in is not an ideal situation.
For Virginia Tech, this matchup comes down to stopping Deja Kelly. Elizabeth Kitley can handle the frontcourt, but they must force shots from the other Tar Heel guards as often as possible. Maybe I am biased toward experience, but I think Virginia Tech barely beats out North Carolina to move on to the semifinals behind a superb performance from Kitley.
Last is No. 6 Georgia Tech vs. No. 3 Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets have struggled mightily down the stretch, winning two of their last seven games. That being said, each loss was to a prospective tournament team, and their defense has still been rock solid during that stretch. Notre Dame is in a completely different situation, as they picked up some good wins late in the regular season just to get embarrassed by Louisville for the second time in two weeks.
The Fighting Irish won the only matchup against Georgia Tech 72-66, with the key difference being their control of the offensive glass. Notre Dame’s ability to run the offense through many different players will help mitigate the Yellow Jackets’ defense, and the Fighting Irish will punch their tickets to the semifinals.
Semifinals
Hopefully, Notre Dame savors the moment because their track record shows that a semifinal matchup with Louisville will not be pretty. Beating a team three times in a season is very difficult, especially a team of Notre Dame’s caliber, but it is hard to ignore the 73-47 and 86-64 (including 54-15 at half) score lines that the Cardinals have put up on the Fighting Irish this season.
Two constant factors in both matchups were Hailey Van Lith’s ability to generate open shots for herself and Emily Engstler’s commanding rebounding. Maddy Westbeld and Maya Dodson will have to be tough inside, and stay out of foul trouble, to give the Fighting Irish a fighting chance. Notre Dame will need a vintage Olivia Miles game and a few threes from Dara Mabrey to get the job done, but I think Louisville is too talented and too hungry for an ACC Championship to be stopped before the final.
Did I pick Virginia Tech to win just so we would get to see Kitley and Elissa Cunane match up one more time? Maybe, but that is none of your business. NC State won both games against the Hokies this season by a combined seven points, including their duel on Sunday to end the regular season. In that game, Kitley scored 18 points and grabbed 7 boards while Cunane dropped 22 of her own, including the go-ahead basket with a minute remaining. On Tuesday, Kitley was named the ACC Player of the Year, narrowly edging out Cunane, which will surely add fuel to the fire.
The two bigs are each so talented that their contributions may neutralize each other, leaving the rest of the rosters to fight for a spot in the championship. In the end, NC State is too deep, too efficient, and too well-coached to lose this game, setting up a rematch of last year’s tournament final.
Final
On Monday the NCAA Tournament Committee revealed their top-16 seeds for the last time before the bracket is announced. Both NC State and Louisville were given one-seeds, at numbers 3 and 4 overall. However, the top teams in the Big 12 and Big Ten are hot on their heels, and failing to make it to the ACC championship, combined with the likes of a Baylor domination in the Big 12 conference tournament, could bump the Cardinals or Wolfpack to the 2-line.
That being said, I would be very surprised if Louisville and NC State were not representing the ACC on Championship Sunday. Two of the most dominant and complete teams in the entire country, the whole world deserves a showdown between these two programs. Their only matchup this season was a wild one, with NC State overcoming a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 68-59. Each team has lost only once since that game and the Blue Ribbon Panel awarded five players in this game ACC honors: Cunane (1st), Hailey Van Lith (1st), Emily Engstler (1st), Kayla Jones (HM), Diamond Johnson (HM).
In the end, both teams are deserving of the ACC crown, but with NC State finally getting over the hump and winning the regular-season title, I think Louisville gets over their postseason hurdle and takes the ACC Championship.
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