ACC (Bi-)Weekly Roundup: Games played 12/28-1/10
Upsets galore, Duke alone on top. Atlantic Coast Chaos.
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Weekly Recap:
The run of conference play this roundup needs to cover had darn near everything. Blowouts, close games, big players getting injured (the WORST part, obviously), important pieces coming back from injury… but the thing they had the most of was upsets. Over a quarter of conference games over the past two weeks involved wins by un-or-lower-ranked teams taking down a ranked/higher ranked/nearly-ranked squad.
The biggest upset of the eight-piece spate of them, margin-wise, was notched on the road by the team currently atop the conference standings and the only squad with an unblemished ACC record, Duke. With all due respect to their run so far, both overall and in-conference, I think it’s fair to say that no one had the Blue Devils in this position They were picked to finish seventh and had zero players on either the Preseason All-ACC or Preseason Blue Ribbon Panel Newcomer Watch List, despite 67% of the league’s teams landing at least one player on at least one of those two lists.
In their upset of then-No. 6 NC State, the Blue Devils shot 64.3% from beyond the arc, just the 17th time (as of this writing) a team has shot 64% or better from distance on at least 10 attempts. Duke also shot a perfect 15-for-15 from the free-throw line, and that combo of 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage (min. 10 attempts for each) remains the only such performance this season. That 64.3% number is also the Blue Devils’ best mark of the season by 16.5%. Individually, Duke’s offensive effort was led by Celeste Taylor and Elizabeth Balogun, who went a combined 7-for-8 from long distance. Balogun was a perfect 6-for-6 from the field, but Taylor was the story of the night. She scored a season-high 23, including 5-for-6 from beyond the arc. Two of those threes came at key moments, too, stopping 6-0 Wolfpack runs.
All that said about Duke’s work on the offensive end, it was also another stellar night for the Blue Devils’ defense, also led by Taylor. Coach Kara Lawson said, “I might’ve thought her defensive game was better than her offensive game, if you can believe that…” Duke held NC State to just 34.4% from the field, 12% below their 20th-ranked season average (as of this writing). Duke also locked down and forced a field-goal scoring drought of 4:42 in the first quarter and didn’t let NC State score at all for the final five-plus minutes of the second quarter.
Zooming out a little, the Blue Devils upset is extra-impressive in that they did it on the road, in a sold-out arena, in a rivalry, and by double digits. Only two of the other seven upsets were on the road.
One of them happened the same night, at the exact same time, and less than 30 miles away.
In Chapel Hill, Florida State took a page out of then-No. 13 North Carolina’s book and came out hot in the second half, a habit the Tar Heels have been known for all season. After shooting an abysmal 18.8% in the second quarter and 32.4% in the first half overall, the Seminoles shot 40% in the second half and doubled up UNC on points in the third quarter.
Florida State’s every-week-until-this-one ACC Freshman of the Week Ta'Niya Latson had 12 of the Seminoles’ 20 third-quarter points and was a big spark for them in the second half, but the MVP of the game has to go to Makayla Timpson. The sophomore forward had a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double, including five offensive rebounds. The Seminoles won the second-chance point battle 37-5. As UNC Coach Courtney Banghart put it: “you’re not going to win a lot of those games if that’s what you’re going to give up.”
That’s especially true paired with UNC’s poor shooting performance from beyond the arc, an anemic 4-for-23. On the topic of poor shooting, though, what really impressed me about Latson in the UNC game is that despite shooting poorly in the first half, she contributed to the Seminoles in a way that still popped out.
As mentioned, Latson had won every conference Freshman of the Week award this season through last week, averaging 24.7 points per game (fifth-best nationally).
Three days after pulling the road upset at NC State (more on that later), Boston College held Latson to just 10 points, her lowest output of the season by nearly half (previous low was 19), and her worst shooting performance by 11.8%. The Eagles pulled out the upset in overtime, 77-71.
Coach Joanna Bernabei-McNamee said after the game that her squad had come to play a little extra-motivated not only because of how good Latson has been all season, but because “we’ve had a really talented freshman [Taina Mair] on our squad that’s really been playing well and hasn’t really gotten any ACC merits for that, and I think that our whole team took that a little personally today… and I think that they put a lot of pride in… their play today to kind of be a little bit stifling on defense.”
Mair, who earned this week’s ACC Freshman of the Week award to break Latson’s streak, also had her second-highest scoring game of the season and was the only Eagle to make more than one three in the game. Her four were more than the rest of the team combined. That said, the player who got the hottest at the right time for BC was Andrea Daley, who single-handedly outscored Florida State in overtime. Daley had six of her 12 points in the extra period, while the Seminoles managed only five.
As mentioned earlier, it was Boston College’s second upset of the week, as just days before, the Eagles went into Reynolds Coliseum and handed NC State its second consecutive home loss. Between the home upsets, the Wolfpack won a game in Syracuse, despite shooting 11.8% from beyond the arc, by far their worst performance of the season. They followed that with their second-worst 3-point shooting effort in the loss to BC. It was also just the second game where NC State allowed an opponent to shoot above 40% from three, the first being the Duke loss.
For Boston College, it was a true team effort, and, once again, similar to Lawson and Duke in their upset of the Wolfpack, Eagles’ coach Joanna Bernabei-McNamee was especially proud of the cohesiveness on the defensive end: “one of our game plans is always that on the defensive end we want to be five together as one every time the ball moves… when they watch [this game] back they’re going to be so excited to see us move every pass…” In addition to their ability to work together on the defensive end, it was a similar story on offense.
Four Eagles scored in double figures, which is actually down from their season average of six, and two players had double-digit rebounds. Dontavia Waggoner was the one Eagle in double figures in both categories, scoring a game-leading 23 and pulling down 10 rebounds for a double-double. Mair added 10 assists to her 15 points, notching the slightly rarer points/assists double-double. Mair said postgame that “you’ve gotta keep putting a lot of confidence in [your] teammates, and they make a shot, you’ve just gotta pay it forward and give it to them again because if they keep making it, it builds confidence and then we keep rolling.”
Speaking of keep(ing) rolling, Boston College was not the only team on the winning side of two upsets over this two-week stretch. Miami also pulled two, both at home in Coral Gables.
On the same night as the Eagles' road upset of NC State, Miami defeated then-No. 22 UNC at home, 62-58, the first (and still only) game the Tar Heels have been held under 60 points all season and their second-worst shooting performance of the season. The turning point of the game seemed to be the third quarter, which is a strange thing to say about a period in which neither team scored for nearly five-and-a-half minutes. The Hurricanes went on an 11-3 run to close the quarter, while the Tar Heels went 0-for-12 from the field over the same stretch. Miami was led in scoring by Haley Cavinder, as they have been all season, but the Hurricanes’ second-leading scorer was sophomore Jasmyne Roberts, who also led the team in rebounds in her first career start. Postgame, Coach Katie Meier noted that Roberts “took advantage of her opportunity in the starting lineup.”
Roberts’ performance in the UNC game earned her a second consecutive start in Miami’s game against then-No. 9 Virginia Tech, and to say she took advantage of the opportunity is putting it lightly. She scored 23 points for a new career high (after setting her previous one just a week or so ago on New Year’s Day) and pulled down eight rebounds, double the number of any other Hurricane. Behind the spark from the player whom Meier calls “the most positive player on our team,” Miami took down the Hokies 77-66.
The Hurricanes put forth a strong offensive performance, shooting nearly 10% above their season field-goal percentage and 11.2% above their season 3-point percentage. But the story of the game for Miami may have been its defense, which Haley Cavinder called the Hurricanes’ “bread and butter” in a postgame interview. Not only was the defense across-the-board excellent all game, the Hurricanes took it to another level in the second half, and even a half a step higher down the final stretch. The Hokies’ 29 points in the second half were their fewest all season, and they didn’t score a field goal for the last 5:56 of the contest.
At the same time two teams went 2-0 in our Week 3 and 4 upsets, only one team made more than one appearance and was winless. That would be Virginia Tech, which also started the slew of upsets with a loss to Clemson.
In that game, the Tigers got the lead up to 10 near the end of the first quarter and kept it there for most of the middle two. The Hokies went on a 13-2 run to end the third and start the fourth and got the lead down to five or less for the entirety of the fourth quarter. But in the end, Clemson had an answer for everything down the stretch and held on for the five-point win.
Clemson’s Amari Robinson and Ruby Whitehorn each had five offensive rebounds. That number is nearly double Robinson’s (top-10% nationally) average of 2.6 per game and two-and-a-half times Whitehorn’s season average. Their work on the offensive glass (plus, of course, the eight pulled down by teammates), meant that Virginia Tech had its worst defensive rebounding rate of the season by a full 2.4%, and Clemson won the second-chance point battle, 19-11.
The Hokies also shot 7% below their season average from the floor and 7.9% below their 32nd-ranked two-point percentage. That plus the loss on the defensive glass are the two things Coach Brooks can probably point to as why Virginia Tech lost, but I’m not sure that would have been what frustrated him the most. That would be their 0.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, the Hokies’ worst on the season by nearly a full tenth and just 59% of their 19th-ranked 1.22 season mark. The only reason I didn’t high (low?) light it earlier was that despite that less-than-stellar mark, the points off turnovers ended up equal at 16, and Clemson’s 0.53 assist-to-turnover ratio was actually worse.
Coming into the game against No. 22 North Carolina, then-No 4 Notre Dame’s worst assist-to-turnover ratio in a game was 0.63. In addition, the Fighting Irish had not been outshot all season, were 10-0 in games they held opponents under 40% from the field, and had not shot below 40% themselves. All of those things are no longer true. In the only ranked-vs-ranked game of the ACC week, the Fighting Irish shot just 28.1% from the field. Neither team had a good first shooting half, as both were below 29% in the first half and a combined 3-for-31 from behind the arc.
In the second half, Notre Dame shot only marginally better, and still under 30%, including connecting on only one more make from distance. The Fighting Irish finished with a 9.1% 3-point percentage, their worst of the season by 3.4% and only their second game under 20%.
As for North Carolina, Coach Banghart wasn’t discouraged by her team’s first-half shooting woes, telling her team in the locker room: “I like the shots you’re getting, I need you to finish your layups, I need you to make threes, but your defense is keeping you in this game, keep going…” And the Tar Heels did, managing to lock down Notre Dame to the point the Fighting Irish did not score a field goal for the final 6:27 of the third quarter.
North Carolina’s field-goal percentage rose overall by 17.2% in the second half and by a whopping 63.3% from distance. That offensive improvement was led by freshman Paulina Paris, who shot 71.4% from distance and had 13 of her 16 points in the second half, including the first 11 Tar Heel points of the fourth quarter.
After the game, in addition to noting that she’s “really happy” to see Paris’ strong play as a spark off the bench, Deja Kelly said that the team came into the game refusing to lose and determined to cut the losing streak off at four, as it was “already enough,” and the team knew they had to do “whatever it took” to get the win.
HHS ACC Player of the Bi-Week:
Whose terrible idea was it to name one Player of the Bi-Week? Oh right, mine.
Onto it, then.
After looking at the performances first, but also certainly taking in the results over the past two weeks, I have to give it to BC’s Dontavia Waggoner. Not only did she have 20-plus-point double-doubles in both of her team’s upsets, she had baskets at key times. This was especially true in the NC State upset, when she had the basket to stem an NC State 8-0 run and scored nine total in the fourth quarter, more than any other player for either team.
Runners-up:
Florida State’s Ta'Niya Latson, the only ACC player over the past two weeks with 30 or more points in a game (she had two such games), and she scored 20 or more in three of her four games over that span.
Duke’s Celeste Taylor, whom we talked about a bunch in regard to her performance in the NC State upset, but she had a stellar week across the board, averaging nearly 48% from the field over the Blue Devils’ three wins.
Other Week 8 & 9 Performances of Note:
Miami’s Jasmyne Roberts’ 23 points in the Hurricanes’ win over Virginia Tech, her career high by eight.
UNC’s Alyssa Ustby’s complete game, despite the loss, against FSU. She had a 16-point, 13-rebound double-double, but also added two assists, two steals, and three blocks.
Boston College’s Taina Mair had the only non-point/rebound double-double of the week, scoring 15 and dishing out 10 assists in the upset of NC State.
Speaking of double-doubles, in addition to Waggoner, FOUR other ACC players had multiple double-doubles over the past two weeks: Virginia Tech’s D'Asia Gregg, Syracuse’s Dariauna Lewis, Duke’s Elizabeth Balogun and FSU’s Makayla Timpson.
Timpson’s 20-point, 11-rebound effort in the win over UNC deserves its own line, though, especially when you consider the five blocks and a steal she added for good measure.
Looking ahead:
There are four games that stand above the rest over the next two weeks, incidentally two each for Louisville and North Carolina.
First, Louisville travels to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech in a game between the squads picked to finish one-two in the league in the preseason. The Hokies will be looking to bounce back from their two upset losses, while the Cardinals have been on a solid upward trajectory since a below-expectations performance in non-conference play. The game is on Jan. 12 at 7:00 p.m. ET on ACCNX.
Next, Louisville travels down to take on Florida State. Our predictor sees the margin as less than a point with the game in Tallahassee. Individually, it will be a battle of the two top scorers in conference play thus far, as the Seminoles’ Ta’Niya Latson is leading the way with 24.7, while the Cardinals’ Hailey Van Lith is right behind her at 20.4, the only other player averaging above 20. Both players are also in the top 10 in the conference in field-goal percentage, top-five in free-throw percentage, and just one slot apart in both assists and assist-to-turnover ratio (Van Lith has the edge in the former, Latson the latter). The game is on Regional Sports Networks on Jan. 15 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
After their big win on Sunday, North Carolina is on the road for one, but then comes home for three. The comforts of home might not be so comfortable, though, as the first two of those three are rivalry games with Research Triangle foes NC State and Duke.
First up is NC State, which has both Jada Boyd and Diamond Johnson back. The Wolfpack will have had another game to get them back in the flow before they head to Carmichael. Our predictor has this as an NC State win, but the margin with the game in Chapel Hill is more than three-and-a-half times smaller than it is were the game in Raleigh. That said, UNC’s intervening road game between their big top-five win over Notre Dame and this one is against one of the teams tied for last in the conference, while NC State’s is at 4-1 Florida State, a team that has not only outperformed expectations but will be motivated coming off its overtime loss in Chestnut Hill. This game gets ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET, also on Jan. 15.
Our fourth and final game to look for is the first Duke-UNC game of the season. Our predictor has this as a 5.1-point Tar Heels win but has both teams scoring well below their points-per-game season average, thinking a 66.6-61.5 game is in order. The Blue Devils are holding opponents to just 50.3 points per game, third-fewest nationally, and their 33.3% opponent field-goal percentage ranks fifth. If you only look at conference play, though, UNC is actually holding opponents to a field-goal percentage that is 1.5% better than Duke is. All that is to say, if you like high-scoring games, this might not be the game for you, but I think it’ll be a lot of fun to watch, especially with the rivalry factor. It’s a late-nighter, 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network on Jan. 19.
Standings/Tiers:
Lonely at the top for now:
No. 16 Duke (4-0 ACC, 14-1 overall): Thanks to an incredibly stingy defense and an overall solid if not eye-popping offense, the Blue Devils are in a league of their own for the moment.
Another squad that’s outperforming expectations by leaps and bounds:
RV Florida State (4-1 ACC, 15-3 overall): The team that was picked ninth in the preseason poll is sitting tied for second in conference play. The Seminoles have improved in nearly every statistical category.
Had some bumps, but trending up:
No. 7 Notre Dame (3-1 ACC, 12-2 overall): Dropped the tough road game to North Carolina, but the Fighting Irish have strong counterbalances in their 11-point win in Blacksburg over the Hokies and a 37-point home drubbing of Boston College.
No. 11 NC State (3-2 ACC, 13-3 overall): The good news for the Wolfpack is that the two key players they were without due to injury, Jada Boyd and Diamond Johnson, are back in time for the heart of conference play. Both players made their returns in upset losses, Boyd for the Duke game, Johnson for Boston College. Both players scored in double figures in NC State’s win over Virginia.
No. 13 Virginia Tech (3-3 ACC, 13-3 overall): In between their two upset losses, the Hokies picked up home wins against North Carolina and in their rivalry series with Virginia. Virginia Tech won the game against the Cavaliers even without Preseason Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley, who missed the game as a precaution after spraining her ankle in practice.
No. 22 North Carolina (1-3 ACC, 10-5 overall): After a loss to Michigan to end the year, the Tar Heels dropped their first three conference games. A players-only meeting after the Miami loss seems to have settled some of what was troubling UNC, as they picked up their second top-five win of the season on Sunday.
RV Louisville (4-1 ACC, 13-5 overall): As mentioned above, the Cardinals had some surprising losses in non-conference play but have steadily improved, led by Hailey Van Lith who has 20+ points in all four of the Cardinals’ conference games.
Syracuse (3-2 ACC, 12-4 overall): The Orange are on a two-game conference winning streak, and their two losses, to Louisville and NC State were close, the latter by just two points. Syracuse has also already surpassed its 11-win total from last year.
Solid not stellar:
Boston College (3-2 ACC, 13-5 overall): This kinda feels like a weird place to put the Eagles, given their two upset wins, but BC also has a 37-point loss to Notre Dame. It will be interesting to see if the Eagles can take their current big momentum and keep swinging upward.
RV Miami (3-2 ACC, 10-6 overall): Similar to Boston College, the Hurricanes are on a high from two big upset wins. Two of Miami’s next three games are against two of the bottom three teams in the conference standings, which should help them continue to improve.
Should probably be in the above group, but just got devastating injury news:
Virginia (2-3 ACC, 13-3 overall): Virginia is the second conference team that has already surpassed its win total from last season. The Cavaliers won just five total games during the 2021-22 season but reeled off 12 straight to start this one. They’ve also already tied their conference win total from last season. All that said, it was announced today that Mir McLean, Virginia’s second-leading scoring and leading rebound and steal-grabber, will be out for the season with a knee injury.
One step from the bottom:
Clemson (2-3 ACC, 11-6 overall): It once again feels weird to put a team that pulled a big upset this low. But since the win over Virginia Tech, the Tigers beat Wake Forest, the team directly behind them in the standings, by only one, and then dropped two games to Florida State and Syracuse by double digits. The road doesn’t get any easier for Clemson coming up, as two of its next three are against teams near the top of the standings, including this Thursday’s tilt at conference-leading Duke.
Wake Forest (2-4 ACC, 11-6 overall): The Demon Deacons are 2-2, with a double-digit loss at home to Duke and a double-digit win at home over 0-5 Pittsburgh. Their other games are a one-point win at home to the other team that’s 0-5 in the conference, Georgia Tech, and a one-point loss on the road at Clemson. If Wake Forest can figure out how to win the close ones, they’ll have a shot to shoot straight up.
Nowhere to go but up:
Georgia Tech (0-5 ACC, 9-7 overall): Georgia Tech was picked to finish eighth this season, but unlike Duke picked one slot above them, the Yellow Jackets find themselves at the bottom of the ACC standings. Things might be trending up a bit for Georgia Tech though, as not only do the Yellow Jackets have five of their next six at home after starting the ACC season with three of four on the road, Coach Nell Fortner’s newly-installed freshman-heavy lineup has resulted in two consecutive single-digit losses, including one by a single point at Wake Forest.
Pitt (0-5 ACC, 7-9 overall): The Panthers were picked last in the preseason poll, and they’ve performed as predicted. Pitt has actually improved nearly all of its shooting and offensive statistics (including raising their assists per game from the bottom third to the top third) but gotten worse in most defensive ones, including all three rebounding per game and rebounding rate categories.
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