ACC (Bi-)Weekly Roundup: Games played 12/14-12/27
Hope everyone is rested, as it's conference play time...
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We saw seven ACC games before teams took a break for some holiday R&R, but when teams come back starting tomorrow, it’s all-in on conference play.
Weekly Recap:
In the last three big nonconference tests of the season, the ACC went 1-2, with Louisville pulling out the only win, 81-67, over DePaul in the one true road game of the trio. The Cardinals shot 54.2% overall, 50.0% from 3, and added 39 rebounds and 17 assists. That combination of stats, plus scoring 80 or more, has been reached 31 times in a game this season. That’s not that impressive of a mark for Louisville at first glance until you notice the Cardinals are the only three-time entry on the list (UConn and Iowa have each reached the mark twice).
In the other two key nonconference matchups, one ACC team shot terribly in the first quarter and never quite recovered, while the other ran into a flame-throwing team that couldn’t miss in the first quarter and never managed to catch up.
In Uncasville, Conn., Florida State dropped what was essentially a road game to then-No. 9 UConn, the Seminoles’ first ranked opponent of the season. FSU shot 14% in the first quarter and ended it down 26-11. But, FSU quickly turned things around, shooting 60% over the next two quarters and cutting the Huskies’ lead to four with 3:19 to play. The Seminoles were led, as they have been all season, by freshman Ta'Niya Latson, who had 24 points. Erin Howard added eight rebounds and 18 points. Half of her rebounds and seven of her points came in the final quarter.
And in Charlotte, then-No. 6 North Carolina dropped a 76-68 game to then-No. 19 Michigan. The Wolverines scored 35 on 75% shooting in the first quarter, a program record for points in a single quarter. The Tar Heels fought back, getting the margin down to single digits for most of the fourth quarter after it had gotten as high as 23. As a team, the Tar Heels shot almost 12% below their season average from the field and nearly 9% below their 3-point average. Leading scorer (both on the game and the season) Deja Kelly scored 15 on 2-for-13 shooting from the field, with 11 of those points coming from the free throw line. Alyssa Ustby posted an 11-point 11-rebound double-double, her fifth of the season.
Flipping over to conference action, home squads won five of the seven matchups by an average of 12 points. The two road teams that won (Louisville and Notre Dame) won by an average of 17.5. The biggest game of the conference run over the past two weeks was the top-10 battle between Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, then ranked fifth and sixth, respectively. The Hokies led over 19 minutes of the first half until a Lauren Ebo free throw with 1:02 to play until the break tied it up. The second half saw three more ties before the Fighting Irish caught fire to end the game, outscoring the Hokies 23-9 in the fourth. Two outstanding performances played a key role in Notre Dame’s top-10 win. First, Olivia Miles was just three assists shy of a triple-double and scored 10 of her 16 points in that final frame. Second, Ebo not only put up 15 points, 3.9 above her season average, she helped hold reigning ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley to her third-lowest scoring output of the year, 16 points, contributing on both ends to the Fighting Irish outscoring the Hokies in the paint by 26.
HHS ACC Players of the (Bi-)Week:
Going to go to one player per bi-weekly set, starting now. Final answer.
This stretch had a number of strong performances, but only one player showed out in all of her team’s games, Florida State’s Ta'Niya Latson. Latson averaged 23.3 points in the Seminoles’ three games over the past two weeks on 43% shooting. While arguably her best performance was against Presbyterian, the only non-power conference team FSU faced during the span, she had 10 of her 21 points in the rivalry game against Miami in the fourth quarter, coming up clutch when her team needed her. As mentioned above, Latson also led her squad in scoring in the game against UConn.
Runners-up: Olivia Miles and Chrislyn Carr.
Miles came up huge when Notre Dame needed her in the game against Virginia Tech, but then had a rather less-impressive showing against Western Michigan, only scoring eight points (but still passing out 12 assists) in 30 minutes of play.
Similarly, Carr was absolutely vital to Louisville pulling out the win over DePaul in Chicago, scoring 21 and pulling down a career-high 17 rebounds, but barely dented the score sheet in the Cardinals’ win over Pitt.
Other Week 6 & 7 Performances of Note:
Elizabeth Kitley notched a 16-point, 20-rebound double-double in the Hokies’ loss to Notre Dame and then nearly had a triple-double in Virginia Tech’s next game against High Point, scoring 25, grabbing seven rebounds, and dishing out seven assists.
As mentioned above, UNC’s Alyssa Ustby scored 11 and pulled down 11 rebounds in the Tar Heels’ Jumpman Invitational loss to Michigan.
Boston College’s Taina Mair scored 10 points to go along with 12 rebounds, eight assists and four steals in the Eagles’ win against Georgia Tech.
Also in the game against the Yellow Jackets, BC’s Andrea Daley put up a 17-point, 13-rebound double-double.
In the win against in-state conference foe Miami, Florida State’s Makayla Timpson scored 25 and came up just one rebound shy of a double-double.
Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair put up 26 in the Orange’s 23-point win against UAlbany and followed it up with 25 in their nine-point conference victory over Wake Forest.
Pittsburgh’s Liatu King put up 26 points and 16 rebounds, eight each of offensive and defensive, in the Panthers’ two-point win over North Alabama.
Looking ahead:
Starting Thursday, we’re right into the rhythm of conference play, with 28 games spread out over the Thursdays and Sundays.
There are five that stand out to me over that span, with two in Blacksburg and the other three occurring in the Research Triangle. I’d say that second part makes it easy for a hoops junkie to get to a bunch, except two of them are at the exact same time this Thursday.
First, Duke travels the 26 miles to Reynolds Coliseum to take on No. 6 NC State. Both teams are coming off double-digit conference-opening home wins, as the Blue Devils beat previously-unbeaten Virginia by 14 and the Wolfpack defeated Clemson by 18. For this game, our predictor gives the Wolfpack a 92% chance to win, expecting a 17-point margin. Both squads rank in the top-10% nationally in a number of categories, including opponent field goal and 3-point percentage. The Blue Devils’ excellence in that last number will be put to the test by the Wolfpack’s seventh-ranked 3-point percentage. Another thing to keep an eye on before this matchup will be whether the 11-day break between games, plus their games missed, gave NC State’s Jada Boyd and Diamond Johnson enough time to recover from their ankle injuries, as they’ve missed four and two games, respectively. Catch the game on ACC Network if you can’t make it to Raleigh on Thursday.
At the exact same time, North Carolina will open conference play at home against Florida State. Even with the game in Chapel Hill, our predictor only expects a single-digit margin of victory, 9.3, but a 76% chance to win. There’s two player matchups in this one that should be a lot of fun. First, UNC’s Ustby vs. FSU’s Timpson. Both are averaging roughly nine rebounds and 14 points per game, and both have five double-doubles on the season. The other one, and probably the one that will get the most national attention, is UNC’s Kelly vs. FSU’s Latson. Both players made ESPN’s recent list of the Top 25 players in the country, checking in at 20th and 25th, respectively, and are leading their teams in scoring. This game is on regional sports networks. Check here to see where to find it on Thursday.
Next up, in Blacksburg, it will be UNC visiting Virginia Tech, in the first matchup of two ACC teams in the top 25. This will be a meeting of two of the top-scoring teams in the nation, as the Tar Heels score the 22nd-most points per game, while the Hokies are not far behind in 34th. As you’d expect from those numbers, both squads have a lot of offensive firepower, with five Hokies and four Tar Heels averaging double figures on the season. Virginia Tech is the stronger defensive team so far this season, coming in amongst the top-10% nationally in most opponent shooting and scoring categories, including allowing the seventh-fewest points per game. That said, UNC is not too far behind, coming in the top third in a number of the same categories. Our predictor gives the Hokies a 67% chance to win and expects a five-point margin. You can watch this matchup on the ACC Network if you’re not there on New Year’s Day at 4 p.m. ET.
The next game I’ve got my eye on is also in Blacksburg, and it’s the first of two Commonwealth Clash meetups this season. With this game at Cassell Coliseum, our predictor gives the Hokies a 74% chance to win. The Hokies are the better team in all of the shooting categories, but Virginia takes the advantage in every single rebounding one. The Cavaliers come in the top 10% nationally in nearly every rebounding metric, including ranking No. 6 in total rebounds per game and No. 8 in offensive rebounds per game. They’ll have their work cut out for them, though, with Elizabeth Kitley, who has 11.6 rebounds per game on her stat line, 1.7 ahead of the Cavaliers’ leader, Mir McLean. At the same time, McLean is shooting 60% from the field, 5.5% ahead of Hokies’ leader Kitley (albeit on just under half the number of attempts per game). Check out the action on RSNs, January 5th at 7 p.m. ET.
Finally, we’ve got the second conference matchup of ranked teams in this two-week span, as Notre Dame heads to Chapel Hill to take on UNC. While our predictor gives the Tar Heels a 71% chance to win, it’s expecting just a seven-point margin. Three of the Fighting Irish’s first four conference games are on the road, a place they’ve already seen success against top-25 conference competition. In its win against then-No. 6 Virginia Tech, Notre Dame was led, as it has been all season, by Olivia Miles, who is leading the team in nearly every category. Miles’ matchup in this game will presumably be Deja Kelly, and that should be a blast to watch. In Notre Dame’s game against Virginia Tech, though, what might have been the difference was the post play, as, even with reigning ACC Player of the Year Kitley on the other side, the Irish outscored the Hokies 42-16 in the paint, led by Lauren Ebo’s 15. Ebo, one of three Irish players with double-doubles on the season, will be battling Alyssa Ustby, the only Tar Heel who’s reached that mark this season. This one is on ACC Network, 4 p.m. ET on January 8.
Just missed the cut:
Louisville at Duke, January 1 at noon ET on RSNs.
Virginia at NC State, January 8 at 3 p.m. ET on RSNs.
Standings/Tiers:
Last standings chart before I start trying to split the squads into tiers:
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