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Last Friday, WNBA insider Khristina Williams tweeted that it was likely the Dallas Wings would trade Allisha Gray in the offseason, and not prior to the trade deadline.
In a recent article, I brought up the point that 2023 would be a better time for teams to pursue trades, as there would be more draft picks and cap space available.
Aside from whether or not they trade Gray, the Wings have an issue. Marina Mabrey and Teaira McCowan will likely become restricted free agents, and Isabelle Harrison unrestricted. The Wings are currently looking at $363,696 in cap space for 2023, which may not be enough to keep all three. Additionally, there may be a team willing to dish out a hefty offer sheet for either McCowan or Mabrey (and Dallas would be forced to match or let them leave for nothing).
Regarding Gray, it is not set in stone that the Wings are looking to trade her. In fact, we currently do not know what the true behind-the-scenes relationship is between Gray and the Wings. Also, if you are Dallas Wings President Greg Bibb, does it even make sense to trade her? Her 2023 salary is $169,600, which is good value relative to her play. Also, the option is there to core Gray in 2024 and then trade her to avoid losing her for nothing. The most obvious reason it wouldn’t make sense to trade her is if she is actually happy in Dallas. But, if she isn’t, it makes more sense to look for a deal while Gray’s trade value is high. When analyzing trade scenarios involving Gray, we also need to consider the reality that, if a WNBA player requests a trade, they usually have a specific destination in mind.
There are essentially two paths the Wings have for a trade involving Gray in 2023:
A trade that nets the Wings a stash of draft picks/rights to players and/or a player whose salary is the same or less than Gray’s;
A trade that nets the Wings a proven player capable of propelling Dallas into the championship picture (and lessens the need to keep either Mabrey or McCowan)
Here are the 2023 trade scenarios for Gray that I think help both sides. Also in these scenarios, I am assuming Dallas is in a must-trade situation.
Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota's front office has a collection of draft picks that would make Danny Ainge or Sam Presti blush: two first-round picks in 2023, two second-round picks in 2023, a third-round pick in 2023, and their own picks for 2024. For Dallas, this could be a good opportunity to acquire more draft picks and keep their cap space open for free agency. However, Dallas has had some misses in the draft, and critics may use that as an indictment against the Wings acquiring more draft picks.
If you are Minnesota, you have enough picks to part with some and still be well-off. But, you are still facing a few issues. Aerial Powers, Kayla McBride, and Natalie Achonwa are going to be free agents after 2023. Moriah Jefferson, who has been a welcome surprise at point guard, will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Keeping Jefferson in Minnesota should be a high priority as the Lynx need a facilitator. It’s important to remember that Jefferson was on the Wings roster with Gray until she was waived. Seeing the wonders that Cheryl Reeve and Minnesota did for Jefferson’s productivity could directly appeal to Gray.
Here is the proposed trade:
Minnesota receives: Allisha Gray
Dallas receives: Kayla McBride, 2023 first-round pick (from Las Vegas), 2023 second-round pick (from Las Vegas)
In this scenario Minnesota’s own first-round pick is not included in the deal. This is because there is a chance of this selection being the first overall pick or somewhere in the top four. As mentioned, Minnesota is facing a situation where some major pieces of their current rotation are free agents after 2023. Their own 2023 draft pick should be treated as an insurance policy and virtually untouchable, unless Minnesota is getting an MVP-caliber talent (with years on her current deal left) in return. Therefore, Minnesota provides Dallas with Las Vegas’ first-round pick in 2023. The Wings also have Chicago’s first-round pick for 2023. This trade would ultimately leave them with two first-round picks and two second-round picks in 2023.
The Gray for McBride player swap can work for both teams. In Dallas’ case, I already mentioned the fact that their previous draft moves have been a bit shaky. However, in this swap, Dallas is getting a proven player, an elite-shooter, and a former All-Star. It also reunites McBride with a familiar face, Fenerbahçe teammate Satou Sabally. This trade would leave them with $331,312 in cap space to try and match offers for Mabrey and McCowan. In acquiring Las Vegas’ picks from Minnesota, the Wings would end up with two first-round picks and two second-round picks for the 2023 WNBA Draft. There is flexibility here for Dallas. If they lose either Mabrey or McCowan, the Wings could look to package all four picks to add another proven player to the roster. If the opposite occurs, and the Wings are looking to try and draft players, they could look to refine their current rotation.
Las Vegas’ picks would be a late-first rounder and a late second-rounder. Some viable rotation players have come in the late first and second rounds in recent years. When it comes to the late first round (let’s say after pick number 9): Two-time WNBA All-Defensive Team member Brianna Turner, Ezi Magbegor, and Jocelyn Willoughby. Players who have been drafted in the second round (since 2019) include: Marina Mabrey, former Rookie of the Year Crystal Dangerfield, and 2021 WNBA All-Rookie Team members Dana Evans and DiDi Richards.
For Minnesota, they are acquiring a player who is slightly younger than McBride, around the same size, and has hit three-pointers at a higher clip this season. Having someone that can shoot like Gray would complement the play of Powers and the returning Napheesa Collier. Also, Gray would be making around $30,000 less than McBride in 2023 which opens up the Lynx’s cap space in attempts to keep Jefferson in Minnesota.
Although Gray and Powers would be unrestricted free agents after 2023, Minnesota has a lifeline to avoid losing either player. Since Collier and Shepard signed extensions in 2022, and the goal is to re-sign Jefferson, the core qualifying offer is on the table for either Powers or Gray. Considering the Lynx would be in a position to keep most of their unit intact, the player who is not extended the core offer would be inclined to stay. Also, the Lynx can offer that player an amount up to the supermax.
New York Liberty
The Liberty have had a turbulent 2022 campaign thus far, but the team is hoping to stem the tide in 2023. They will have players coming back from injury, such as Betnijah Laney and Jocelyn Willoughby, and cap space to acquire a star player.
What makes the Liberty a good trade partner for the Wings? New York has the following: a player who could fit the current Wings gameplan, a potentially decent draft pick, and the rights to a player whom Dallas could use. Also, considering further big market opportunities, New York could be a location Gray requests a trade to.
Here is the proposed trade:
New York receives: Allisha Gray,
Dallas receives: Rebecca Allen, 2023 first-round pick, draft rights to Nyara Sabally
Let’s look at what Dallas is receiving in this scenario, starting with Rebecca Allen. Allen has had an up-and-down season due to injury. But, when healthy, Allen provides spot-up three-point shooting and defense. In 2021, she ranked 11th in three-pointers made per game. On the defensive side of the ball, Allen had the best steal rate in the W (percentage of opposing plays in which the ball was stolen) and ranked 15th in total blocks.
Currently, Dallas’ offense is run through Arike Ogunbowale. With Allen, they would have someone who can stretch the floor, open up space for Arike, and knock down shots if Ogunbowale is forced to dish. Now imagine if the Wings are able to retain Mabrey. We could see a lineup in which Ogunbowale can dish to either Allen or Mabrey beyond the arc. Defensively, Allen is someone who could help a Wings franchise whose defensive rating hasn’t cracked the top five since 2008. Allen’s 2023 salary is less than Gray’s ($136,850 versus $169,600), freeing up cap space to allow Dallas to match offers for Mabrey and McCowan (but lose Harrison) or make other moves.
Regarding the draft pick they are getting from New York, the selection could end up being third or fourth overall. The Wings will have another first-round pick in 2023, which they could package with the Liberty’s pick for another deal. If Dallas ends up having the cap space or makes cuts to sign their picks, they could have players who can step in and produce in conjunction with Allen’s two-way play. In this proposed deal, Dallas is also acquiring the rights to Nyara Sabally. Sabally, the fifth overall pick in 2022, sat out this season with a knee injury. Once healthy, she could help Dallas on the interior. In essence, Dallas is getting another first-round pick. Ultimately, with Allen, the Liberty’s first-round pick, and the rights to Sabally, the Wings have flexibility for the next few years.
New York is getting a playmaker who has decent size and provides what could be a loaded Liberty squad with some depth. If the Liberty are able to acquire another star (Breanna Stewart or Nneka Ogwumike), that squad would feature: Sabrina Ionescu, Laney, Natasha Howard, Gray, Stefanie Dolson, and Stewart/Ogwumike. If that team makes a championship run, it could entice Laney, Dolson, and Gray to find ways to stay with the team after 2023.
If the Liberty’s current draft pick falls outside of the top two, the team should be content with parting with the pick considering the aforementioned talent. One of the questions that people had with the Liberty’s pick last year was fit. If Nyara Sabally (selected fifth) was healthy and able to play, she would have most likely come off the bench playing behind Dolson. Another question to ask is would her minutes cut into the development and production of Han Xu? Although Sabally’s fit in New York might be questionable, perhaps she could fit with Dallas. If New York’s 2023 first-round draft pick is not Aliyah Boston, the team shouldn’t repeat the same mistake of not fielding offers.
Chicago Sky
The Chicago Sky have been rolling this season and seem poised to make another championship run. But, is this the quiet “Last Dance?” Candace Parker has given hints that this could be her last season. We still aren’t sure about whether Courtney Vandersloot and Allie Quigley will run it back for another year. Also, where do Emma Meesseman and Azurá Stevens fit into the Sky’s future plans? Something else to consider is that Parker and Kahleah Copper can no longer be cored once their current deals expire.
If you are general manager and head coach James Wade, you have to be thinking about what Sky life looks like after this season is up. For the 2023 draft, the team has Phoenix’s first-round pick plus their own second and third-round picks. Chicago also will have their own draft picks for 2024. In terms of cap space, the team is projected to have $931,801 (not including cap holds) to fill a minimum of six spots.
So where does Allisha Gray fit here?
In acquiring Gray, Chicago is adding a piece for the new era of Sky basketball. Plus, they can either extend her upon arrival or core her in 2024. This is key. Remember, Copper could leave after 2023 without Chicago getting anything in return, so it is in their best interest to show her that she wouldn’t be signing on to a full-on rebuild. The same situation goes for someone like Stevens or Meesseman, but for next year. Both players can definitely find decent offers elsewhere. At 6’6” and 6’4”, respectively, and with championship experience, any team would love to have them.
When it comes to Gray, the key phrase is “building block.” Gray is just one part of the puzzle. If Chicago embarks on a new phase, they would want to use their cap space to add players to a Copper-Gray-Meesseman-Stevens unit to keep the team competitive. The Sky would be hard-pressed to make an attractive pitch to Breanna Stewart or Nneka Ogwumike if Parker, Quigley, and Vandersloot leave. But, they could make a pitch to the following: Brionna Jones, Brittney Sykes, Moriah Jefferson, Isabelle Harrison, or Jordin Canada. Adding such players to a team with Copper, Gray, Meesseman, Stevens, Dana Evans, and Julie Allemand would surely keep the Sky in the mix for the next few years.
Here is the proposed trade:
Chicago receives: Allisha Gray
Dallas receives: 2023 first-round pick (from Phoenix) - if this falls out of the top-2; if it doesn’t then Dallas receives Chicago’s 2024 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, 2024 second-round pick
For Chicago, they get a key piece for their new-look roster. For the Wings, this is a trade that nets them either another 2023 first rounder or future first-rounder, as well as other draft picks. Plus, this is a scenario that takes Gray’s 2023 salary off their books and gives them more cap space to work with.
Seattle Storm
The Storm have many things to worry about after this season. Breanna Stewart, Epiphanny Prince, Jantel Lavender, Stephanie Talbot, and Tina Charles will be unrestricted free agents. Gabby Williams and Ezi Magbegor will likely be restricted and reserved free agents, respectively. Sue Bird and Briann January will have retired. Jewell Loyd only has one year left on her existing deal and can no longer be cored.
For Seattle, their priorities should be the following: keeping Stewart in Seattle, extending Loyd’s deal, and locking Magbegor in for multiple years. The Storm’s front office will need to show it is serious about keeping most of the current core and building a competitive team for the next few years.
Enter Allisha Gray. In trading for Gray, Seattle is acquiring another playmaking guard. If you are Stewart, you can worry a bit less about Seattle’s ability to remain competitive. Since the Storm can either extend Gray or core her after 2023, keeping her would go over well with Loyd. Luckily for Seattle, they would have leverage in negotiations with Williams and Magbegor, courtesy of restricted/reserved qualifying offers. So, acquiring someone like Gray could be what they need to hold it all together. Also for Gray, landing in Seattle could give her an opportunity to play with a former MVP and for championships, things she hasn’t done yet in the W. Thus, Seattle could appeal to Gray as a trade destination, which would open up the possibility of Gray having her current deal extended for a subsequent trade to Seattle.
Here is the proposed trade:
Seattle receives: Allisha Gray
Dallas receives: Mercedes Russell, 2023 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick (from New York), 2024 first-round pick
For Dallas, they are acquiring a center who, when healthy, could be a decent backup for McCowan (if they retain her). In the event the Wings lose McCowan, they have a possible replacement. Mercedes Russell is 6’6”, has championship/playoff experience, and her current deal expires in 2024. The experience of being on a playoff roster is definitely a plus when you consider the significant lack of it on the current Wings squad. In acquiring Russell, Dallas could also look to part with one of their drafted centers, whom they feel may not be a suitable roster fit. From a financial standpoint, acquiring Russell gives the Wings an extra $9,600 in cap space to use elsewhere. As mentioned, one of the important things for Dallas will be trying to keep their free agents.
One of the things in the scenario that is evident is the inclusion of two first-round draft picks. Normally, I am against teams trading back-to-back first-round picks. However, in this scenario Seattle is trying to entice the core group to stay for added years, with the acquisition of Gray being the glue to hold it all together. Russell has missed a significant amount of time in 2022, and her deal (combined with her current health status) may not be enough to move Dallas into making a trade. Thus, including the two first-round picks to sweeten the deal. The move nets Dallas four first round picks over the next two years. Having the multitude of first round picks allows Dallas to make other deals as they deem fit.
For Seattle, acquiring Gray is just one step. Another crucial step is signing Stewart to a supermax deal. Next, the Storm should try to secure Magbegor (which might be easier than retaining Stewart) and Loyd for multiple years. By moving Russell, it clears space for Magbegor to officially be Seattle’s big for the future. Seattle could look in free agency or in the second round for a backup center and point guard with the retirement of Bird (perhaps a Jordin Canada reunion). The ultimate goal for Seattle is for their core unit to look like the following: Loyd, Gray, Williams, Stewart, and Magbegor. Once Seattle signs them to multi-year deals, then the front office can worry about filling out the rest of the team. And who knows? Maybe the Storm can get some other veterans (looking to contend) on team-friendly deals.
Regarding their draft picks, Seattle should be content with trading them away if the end results are: keeping Stewart, Loyd, and Magbegor for the long-term and acquiring Gray. With that team, Seattle likely would be contending, making those picks late-first rounders. Also with this unit, Seattle doesn’t have to worry about its future. Stewart is 27, Loyd is 28, Gray is 27, Magbegor is 22, and Williams is 25. That unit alone will have plenty of basketball left in their career, and what better place to have that than in Seattle.
I believe the scenarios above give both sides what they want and need. At the end of the day, Dallas would be looking for a solid return for Gray. But, teams have to try and put together a plan that doesn’t ultimately backfire. Although the point in making a trade for Gray is that it would be a preferred destination making her likely to extend, there is no guarantee that she will. So, you have to be wary of unloading the Brink’s truck for what could essentially be a one-year rental. Are there other teams that would love to have Allisha Gray? Sure, but they probably do not have a trade package that leaves them better after the trade than before.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Nice article and analysis. But, honestly tired of media always trying to trade Wings players. Last Fall it was Arike, then this summer it is Isabel and now Gray. Dallas is treated as just a feeder system to other 'serious' WNBA teams. Wings fans want a championship too ! Guess what, Gray is a championship building block for us too ! Dallas has gone through the rebuilding phase, now is time to keep your players.