The Weekly Roundup: Welcome to March!
The most exciting mid-major conference tournament, the superb regular-season finales of Aneesah Morrow and Caitlin Clark, and how to kill the two-for-one
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Conference tournament season is here! It’s a friendly reminder that I really need to step up my multi-screen viewing layout. Seriously, I came away from last March thoroughly impressed by the simultaneous game-watching setups that women’s basketball fans posted to social media. Well done, Twitter.
More importantly, though, the beginning of conference tournament season means that the Big Dance is just around the corner. How will yesterday’s top-16 reveal change come Selection Sunday? How will Paige Bueckers’ return ultimately impact UConn’s region and seeding? Can bubble teams like Villanova and DePaul parlay an impressive conference tournament run into an NCAA tournament berth? The 32 conference tournaments taking place over the next 13 days will help us formulate answers to these and many other burning questions.
The Big South and Horizon League kick things off today with first-round action. For schedule information regarding the other 30 conference tournaments, check out the NCAA website.
The most can’t-miss mid-major conference tournament
The NCAA’s 32 conference tournaments are bound to deliver plenty of drama. Thirty-two teams will punch their tickets to the Big Dance by winning their conference tournament championship, some will catch the eye of the selection committee and solidify an at-large bid, and others will suffer the heartbreak of missing out on March Madness. We’re all aware of the excitement that the power six conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC) will offer. But what about the other 26 conferences that fly a bit further under the radar?
In an ideal world, I would encourage everyone to watch at least part of each of these 26 mid-major conference tournaments. I know, I know, there are only so many hours in the day. Don’t worry, I’m going to help out by giving you my recommendation for the mid-major conference tournament that will provide the most excitement. Through painstaking mathematical analysis, I have determined that the most can’t-miss mid-major conference tournament is that from the Mid-American Conference (MAC).
OK, I may have overstated the mathematical rigor involved in this calculation. The analysis boiled down to two metrics: Her Hoop Stats Rating and offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions). It also involved the assumptions that 1) fans enjoy close games and, with apologies to defensive-minded folks, 2) fans love prolific scoring. The Her Hoop Stats Rating is our predictive metric of team strength based on machine learning. It measures a team’s predicted performance on a neutral court against a hypothetical average team. So, I used the spread of HHS Ratings among each conference’s top eight teams to evaluate the relative likelihood of nail-biting games during the conference tournament. Each team’s in-conference offensive rating helped me assess which conferences are most likely to light up the scoreboard. In the end, the MAC had the best combination of these two attributes, ranking second in the smallest spread of HHS ratings and seventh in average offensive rating at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.
It’s not just my semi-arbitrary calculation that should have you immediately checking the MAC tournament schedule. Remember the MAC’s high-octane offenses? Buffalo’s Dyaisha Fair (23.8 PPG), Ohio’s Cierra Hooks (23.1 PPG), and Akron’s Jordyn Dawson (21.9 PPG) represent three of the country’s top ten in points per game. A comparison of the conference’s preseason poll with the current standings suggests that almost anything is possible; three of the conference’s top four teams were picked to finish No. 8 or worse in the preseason poll. So, expect a few surprises. And even if we’re deprived of upsets, a conference final between No. 1 Toledo and No. 2 Buffalo is sure to be a doozy. The Her Hoop Stats prediction model gives Toledo a 50.3% chance to win in this hypothetical matchup, essentially a coin flip. So, grab the popcorn and enjoy all the chaos that the MAC tournament has to offer. Quarterfinal games tip off at 11 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, March 9, and the tournament concludes with the championship game on Saturday, March 12 at 11 a.m. Eastern on CBS Sports Network.
Power Six co-performances of the week: Aneesah Morrow, DePaul and Caitlin Clark, Iowa
One player recorded her 23rd consecutive double-double, tops in the country and sixth all-time, and became just the second player this season to score at least 40 points and grab at least 15 boards. Another player posted a stat line of 38 points (8-for-11 from behind the arc), 11 assists, and six rebounds, leading her team to a share of the Big Ten regular-season championship. Which would you select as the Power Six Performance of the Week? Yeah, I couldn’t choose either, so Aneesah Morrow’s performance against Creighton and Caitlin Clark’s effort in Iowa’s Big Ten finale versus Michigan are my picks for Power Six Performances of the Week.
Morrow’s 41-point, 18-rebound game in DePaul’s regular-season finale win against Creighton was an exclamation point on a remarkable freshman season. Her 41 points were a Big East rookie record. The clear front-runner for National Freshman of the Year, Morrow is having arguably the best season by someone not named Aliyah Boston or Caitlin Clark. She leads the country with 14.0 boards per game and ranks 12th in scoring with 21.5 points per contest. On the defensive end, Morrow ranks in the top 60 in steals (26th with 2.6 per game) and blocks (55th with 1.8 per outing). Her 10.3 win shares are fifth-best in the country, making her only the third freshman since the 2014-15 season to cross the 10 win share threshold.
Remember when Caitlin Clark was struggling from the three-point line? It seems like a distant memory now, especially the show she put on Sunday in front of 15,000 Hawkeye fans. Then-No. 6 Michigan had no answers for Clark’s blistering 8-for-11 performance from long-distance which included multiple logo threes. Turnovers have occasionally been an Achilles’ heel for the Iowa sophomore this season, but Clark committed just two miscues compared to 11 assists against the Wolverines on Sunday. It’s wildly entertaining for fans and a nightmare for opponents when Clark brings her “A” game, and that’s precisely what happened on Sunday as the Hawkeyes clinched a share of their first Big Ten regular-season crown since 2008.
Mid-Major performance of the week: Anna Larr Roberson, Louisiana Tech
When you’re on a list with Caitlin Clark, Ayoka Lee, Jasmine Dickey, Nia Clouden, and Maddy Siegrist, you know you’ve done something special. That’s precisely what Louisiana Tech’s Anna Larr Roberson achieved Thursday night after posting one of the 10 highest single-game scoring totals this season. Roberson dropped a career-high 44 points on 20-for-28 shooting to go along with nine rebounds en route to her team’s thrilling 90-80 double-overtime victory over Rice. The win coupled with Louisiana Tech’s 62-54 triumph over North Texas on Saturday propelled the Lady Techsters to the top of Conference USA’s West division and moved them one step closer to a coveted double-bye in the conference tournament.
Sorely needing a win to keep pace with the top of the C-USA West division, Louisiana Tech received a clutch performance from their junior forward. Roberson scored 21 of her 44 points after the third quarter against Rice, including eight of her team’s final 10 points in regulation and seven of the Lady Techsters’ 12 points in double overtime. She elevated her game to another level Thursday night, doubling up her previous career-high of 22 points.
Roberson’s stellar performance Thursday night bolstered an already strong case for Conference USA all-conference team consideration. The Louisiana Tech junior ranks in the C-USA’s top five in scoring (fifth at 15.8 points per game), field goal percentage (fifth at 53.8%), rebounds (fourth with 8.1 boards per contest), points per play (second at 1.04), and win shares (fourth with 4.0).
And I would have gotten away with it too if it weren’t for those meddling Hawkeyes
A couple of weeks ago during Maryland’s Big Ten clash against Iowa, Diamond Miller drained a three-pointer with 46.6 seconds remaining in the first half. That’s perfect if you’re a Terrapins fan for two reasons. First, your team just scored three points. Second, Maryland is now likely to have one more possession before the end of the half, because Iowa must attempt a field goal before the 30-second shot clock expires (unless Iowa grabs an offensive rebound or gets fouled on the ensuing possession). In basketball parlance, this is known as a two-for-one. That is, Maryland has two possessions - Diamond Miller’s triple plus its possession after Iowa’s - to the Hawkeye’s sole offensive opportunity before the end of the half. A sound strategy, right? Iowa had other ideas.
Genius. The Hawkeyes took advantage of the fact that 1) the game clock continues to run on a made basket (except in the game’s final minute), 2) the shot clock does not start until an offensive player touches the ball inbounds, and 3) their opponent was not pressing. It’s a viable scheme for killing the two-for-one but also for underdogs to shrink the game by reducing the number of possessions, particularly if they have the lead. In general, the more possessions in a game, the greater the chances the better team emerges victorious. The one flaw with this plan? Any semblance of defensive pressure in the backcourt will force the offensive team to receive the inbounds pass earlier than desired.
Adam’s Top 25
Here’s my top 25, which as always is based on the criterion of who would currently win in a hypothetical neutral-court matchup.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
Her Hoop Stats named the 10 semifinalists for the 2022 Becky Hammon Mid-Major Player of the Year Award. See below for the list along with the players’ stat lines, and check out our newsletter for more details regarding these outstanding players. Also, stay tuned for early this month when the list gets narrowed down to five finalists. The winner will be announced around the Final Four.
The Her Hoop Stats team released the following podcast content this past week:
On Unplugged, Aaron Barzilai joined Megan Gauer to discuss NCAA tournament bracketology ahead of the selection committee’s latest top-16 seed reveal.
In the latest episode of Courtside, Gabe Ibrahim and Christy Winters Scott revealed their picks for the country’s three best conferences, player of the year, coach of the year, moment of the year, and first-team All-America.
Interested in betting on the outcomes of the upcoming conference and NCAA tournament games? Check out Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai over at SportsLine.com for their latest picks as well as our new betting show, on YouTube.
Who will go No. 1: Rhyne Howard or NaLyssa Smith? How will the rest of the first round of the WNBA draft shake out? Gabe Ibrahim offered insight into these questions with his mock draft where played the role of each team’s general manager.
Derek Willis broke down the trend of how free throws have become a less prominent part of players’ repertoires.
In her weekly Pac-12 review, Kim Doss recapped a pair of encouraging performances by California, evaluated the ramifications of Cate Reese’s injury, and revealed her picks for conference player of the week, freshman of the week, and underrated player of the week.
James Hyman summarized a chaotic week in the ACC that included North Carolina’s thrilling upset victory over Louisville and a two-game winning streak by Virginia.
Other recommended content
For Sports Illustrated, Chris Ballard told the story of Connie Kunzmann - the mark she left on the Women’s Professional Basketball League (WBL) during her playing career, her horrific murder, and the league’s complicated legacy.
TechSideline.com’s David Cunningham described how Virginia Tech coach Kenny Brooks built the Hokies into a top-25 program.
The Wisconsin State Journal’s Jim Polzin explained how Wisconsin coach Marisa Moseley learned to prioritize her mental health during her tenure as Boston University’s head coach.
The Athletic’s Jenny Dial Creech chronicled the legendary 50-year coaching career of Gary Blair, including his humble beginnings as a high school basketball coach at South Oak Cliff High School and his national championship run with Texas A&M in 2011.
The Times and Democrat’s Travis Boland detailed the recent firing of South Carolina State coach Audra Smith after she filed a class action and individual lawsuit alleging Title IX discrimination and retaliation and equal pay violations.
For Sports Illustrated, Ben Pickman chronicled how WNBA players Joyner Holmes, Ariel Atkins, and their Ukrainian teammates on BC Prometey of the Ukrainian Basketball SuperLeague have continued their season amid Russia’s invasion.
Last year, the University of Utah had the country’s 255th-ranked offense and finished with five wins, the lowest in program history. This year, the Utes boast the nation’s 11th-ranked offense and are on the verge of their first NCAA tournament berth since 2011. The Next’s Matthew Walter revealed what’s driven this impressive turnaround.
Trivia question of the week
What was the last program to upset a team seeded No. 4 or better on that team’s home court in the NCAA tournament?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Excellent article!