Another Team's Treasure
How the bottom seven teams in the WNBA are projected to fare in the 2023 WNBA Draft
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Draft picks are some of the most important assets a team can have. They can be used to select a quality player in the draft, trade for another draft selection, or be bundled with other players to acquire a franchise player. When it comes to the draft, one event that fans tune into is the pre-draft lottery. Most sporting leagues have that in place to determine the order of a certain number of picks, but usually people tune in to see which team will have the first overall pick. The top pick is usually seen as the best collegiate (or in some cases, high school) player, someone who can provide instant high-level production to a team. If a team doesn’t land that number one pick, the expectation is they can find another top-level player in the first round.
The WNBA’s method for determining its draft order and lottery is as follows (per our CBA FAQ): The four non-playoff teams (or team that has their pick) make up the first four picks of the next draft, with the order of the top two picks being determined through the draft lottery process (where the worst team has the best odds to draw the first overall pick). The order of the other two non-playoff teams is based on each team’s winning percentage from the prior two seasons. The remaining draft picks are determined by the teams’ regular-season record for just the prior season (reverse-order).
Based on the current WNBA standings, most of the teams in the bottom half of the league are in tight competition for playoff spots. But some of these teams are in a peculiar position where they do not hold their first-round pick for 2023.
Let’s take a look at these teams in the bottom half, which first-round picks they hold next year, their ramifications for missing the playoffs, and if those teams are in a position to make further moves:
The current standings for the bottom half are:
T-6th: Atlanta, Dallas, and Los Angeles
9th: Phoenix
10th: New York
11th: Minnesota
12th: Indiana
Atlanta Dream:
2023 first-round pick: Own; Los Angeles (Washington has the right to swap this pick)
The Atlanta Dream are in the fortunate position of holding their own first-round pick for 2023, but they also hold Los Angeles’ first-round pick. Atlanta acquired the Sparks’ pick in the deal that brought Chennedy Carter to L.A. However, Washington acquired the right to swap their pick with that L.A. selection when the Dream traded up ahead of the 2022 draft.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: Atlanta is essentially playing with house money. At the start of the season, few expected the Dream to be competing for a playoff spot. If they miss the playoffs, they will be in a position to possibly have another first overall selection, but this time without needing a trade. Where things get interesting is if the Sparks miss the playoffs. If this were to happen, this pick would most likely be swapped with Washington (at their behest), and a contending team like the Mystics would have the draft choice. Aside from their draft status, Atlanta is currently projected to have $942,916 in cap space to revamp their roster. Therefore, Atlanta fans must be content with how they are projected to fare in the future.
Dallas:
2023 first-round pick: Chicago
Dallas has a first-round draft pick in 2023. However, that pick is technically Chicago’s, who is at the top of the league standings. The pick, to add some more complexity, was actually acquired from Indiana in the deal that brought Teaira McCowan to Dallas. The Sky show no intention of regressing by season’s end so the pick most likely will be a late first-round selection. Nonetheless, it is still a first-round pick. So what happened to Dallas’ own pick? That pick was sent to Indiana in the same McCowan deal.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: Since the Fever hold Dallas’ first-round selection, a Wings playoff miss would mean another high draft pick for Indiana. As long as the Wings do not trade Chicago’s pick away to another team, they should at least have a first-round pick, albeit a low first-rounder. Dallas may be more preoccupied with free agency than the draft. As of the time of this article, the Wings are projected to have $363,696 in cap space to fill 1-2 roster spots. But, Isabelle Harrison is slated to be an unrestricted free agent; and Marina Mabrey and McCowan should become restricted free agents in 2023 as long as Dallas extends them restricted qualifying offers. All three players will be expected to receive offers, and the Wings most likely will not have the cap space to keep all three.
Los Angeles:
2023 first-round pick: None (draft picks held: 2023 second and third round)
The Sparks are basically in the opposite situation of Atlanta when it comes to draft status. The team has no first-round pick for 2023. Also, due to how the CBA decides the draft order for the second and third rounds, the Sparks’ picks would be further down the line if they make the playoffs.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: As mentioned, the Dream hold Los Angeles’ 2023 first-round pick, but Washington has the right to swap. If Los Angeles misses the playoffs, the Mystics most likely will invoke their option to swap picks with Atlanta. The Sparks are projected to have $996,101 in cap space in 2023. However, a majority of their rotation (Lexie Brown, Liz Cambage, Jordin Canada, Chiney Ogwumike, Nneka Ogwumike, Kristi Toliver, and Brittney Sykes) are slated to become free agents. A first-round pick would help Sparks brass sleep better at night. Without it, Los Angeles’ offseason could get a bit contentious.
Phoenix:
2023 first-round pick: None (draft picks held: 2023 third round - own and Atlanta’s)
Phoenix is slated to make its first 2023 draft selection in the third round. Its first-round pick is currently held by Chicago, which was acquired in the sign-and-trade, multi-team deal that brought Diamond DeShields to Phoenix.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: Phoenix is currently in a lose-lose situation no matter what they do. If they miss the playoffs, that high draft pick belongs to Chicago. In fact, that pick would help Chicago in accelerating a possible rebuild in the event that Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot, and Allie Quigley were to depart after this season. In 2023, the Sky would have young players such as Kahleah Copper, Dana Evans, and Julie Allemand under contract. They also are projected to have $931,801 in cap space. Having a top pick, young players, and cap space is a dream for any front office.
The Mercury are in a situation where having that first-round pick would give the franchise a needed asset heading into 2023. Right now, it is uncertain when Russia’s wrongful detainment of Brittney Griner will end. Additionally, the Mercury have players whose contracts will expire after 2022 (Diana Taurasi, Sophie Cunningham, Kia Nurse, Megan Gustafson, Shey Peddy, Sam Thomas). The only players slated to be under contract are Skylar Diggins-Smith, DeShields, and Brianna Turner. Having a top draft pick could quell some questions there. If the Mercury were to make the playoffs, as mentioned, their own third-round pick in 2023 would be later in that round. Thus, the draft will not be momentous for Phoenix unless moves are made.
New York:
2023 first-round pick: Own
The New York Liberty own their first-round pick for 2023. The team is in an interesting position, as they are missing a key piece in Betnijah Laney, have had an up-and-down season due to injuries, and could qualify for the playoffs.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: One can make an argument that New York, as currently constructed, would benefit more by missing the playoffs than making it. If they were to finish in the bottom four, they would have a chance at a number one overall pick in 2023 (their second since 2020). Additionally, New York is projected to have $382,915 in cap space for 2023. This would be enough to sign a star player for the regular maximum ($202,154) and their top pick. The idea of having Sabrina Ionescu, Laney, Natasha Howard, Stefanie Dolson, and a first-overall pick could be enough to entice a top free agent to join New York. One name linked to possibly signing with New York is Breanna Stewart. Could you imagine the buzz if New York landed Stewart and Aliyah Boston in the same offseason? Even if the pick was not first overall, the Liberty would have a highly sought-after asset and cap space.
Minnesota:
2023 first-round pick: Own, Las Vegas
The Lynx are in a decent position for 2023. Although they will be losing Sylvia Fowles, they have two first-round draft picks and are expected to have Napheesa Collier back after missing time for maternity leave. Their pick from Las Vegas was acquired earlier this year (before the draft), in exchange for their eighth and 13th overall picks in 2022. Considering the fact that neither 2022 pick is currently on the Aces’ roster, this move can be considered a haul by GM and Head Coach Cheryl Reeve.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: Minnesota had an abysmal start to the year, in what was supposed to be Sylvia Fowles’ last hurrah. If the Lynx miss the playoffs, they will have a top-four draft pick and another selection in the first round. They will also have two picks in the second round (one of them being Las Vegas’) plus a third-round selection. The Lynx would also have ample opportunities to find players for the future. Although Kayla McBride, Natalie Achonwa, and Aerial Powers are under contract in 2023, that season will be their last under their current deals. Thus, if they miss the playoffs, the Lynx have a chance to draft players who could be useful if McBride, Powers, and Achonwa depart. If they do not leave, Minnesota bolsters its team with a multitude of young, talented players.
Indiana:
2023 first-round pick: Own, Dallas
The Indiana Fever are poised to have two first-round draft picks in 2023, their own and Dallas’. As previously mentioned, they acquired Dallas’ pick in the Teaira McCowan deal. The Fever also have two second-round picks (their own and Phoenix’s) and a third-round pick.
Ramifications of a playoff miss: Indiana is currently last in the W. If that holds and they miss the playoffs, they could receive the first overall pick, since the team with the worst winning percentage over the past two seasons has the highest odds. This is beneficial for Indiana, as they have made it evident that they would like to build and develop through their youth. Where things get interesting is if Dallas also misses the playoffs. If that occurs, Indiana has a chance to have two picks in the top four in consecutive drafts. How’s that for stocking up on young talent?
So, how can the teams above without a 2023 first-round pick rectify that?
For teams without a first-round pick in 2023, something is coming up that could change their misfortune. July 15th is the trade deadline. Teams that could use a pick in the first round would likely field offers that could provide them with that pick. However, blockbuster trades will be tricky at this juncture, with most teams either close to or over the salary cap. Front offices will have to do some finagling to try and complete a trade that nets them a first-round draft selection.
Phoenix Mercury:
Phoenix needs a pick and has reportedly been exploring trades for Skylar Diggins-Smith. Her level of play would command a first-round pick or multiple in return for her contract. But, as teams are strapped for cash, the Mercury and their trading partner would most likely have to add players to the deal.
If they cannot get a deal done by the deadline and Skylar remains with Phoenix for the remainder of the season, the team can field offers at the beginning of 2023. In Phoenix’s case, it may be better for them to retain Diggins-Smith and look for a more fruitful deal next year:
More draft picks available: One reason in favor of waiting until 2023 is that more draft picks would be up for grabs. Per league policy, picks beyond the following year’s draft cannot be traded. In a 2022 deal, a franchise could only trade draft picks up to 2023. On January 1, 2023, a team would then become able to include 2024 draft picks in a deal.
Financial flexibility: After the 2022 season, more teams will have cap space (inclusive of cap holds) to work with and absorb Diggins-Smith’s 2023 salary.
A team such as Atlanta would make a decent trading partner after the 2022 season for the following reasons:
Cap space: Unlike in 2022, the Dream would now have the cap space to consume Diggins-Smith’s contract without having to immediately make other moves. Additionally, with the change of scenery/coaching, the Dream could entice Skylar to extend her current deal beyond 2023 (as she can no longer be cored and will be a free agent after that season). Diggins-Smith meets the threshold to have the first year’s salary of the extended contract at the supermax.
Recruiting: For Atlanta, having two all-stars such as Diggins-Smith and Rhyne Howard could make for a convincing pitch to other stars projected to be on the free agency market such as Breanna Stewart, Nneka Ogwumike, or Tina Charles.
As the Dream have two first-round picks for 2023 (their own and Los Angeles’ with the potential for a swap with Washington’s pick), Phoenix would be inclined to ask for at least one of those picks in return for Diggins-Smith.
Los Angeles:
The other team mentioned that doesn’t have a first-round draft pick for 2023 is Los Angeles. Any trade made before the deadline would most likely involve the Sparks sending an expiring contract to a team. The issue is that the most valuable of the expiring contracts is a key player, creating a dilemma: make a playoff run with the current group but lose most of their team in the offseason or trade a key player for draft picks and forgo any chance of a deep playoff run.
Another issue with trading one of these expiring contracts is that other teams can just wait until their deal expires and then make a pitch to sign them without giving up any assets.
But there is one workaround, one that would require negotiation by multiple parties. If the Sparks were to inquire about a trade package for their top star on an expiring deal, Nneka Ogwumike (which would include a first-round pick in return): if the team was able to extend her deal beyond 2022, and get favorable offers, they are in play. The team would have to see if Nneka would be willing to go to that particular destination, and then extend-and-trade her before the deadline. Ogwumike would also be able to have her first season of the extension at the supermax. If she were to sign with another team after this season, a 2023 salary at the supermax would not be available.
Atlanta is a team that could come up with an offer in 2022 for Nneka, if she decides to extend her deal.
Here’s one package that Atlanta could provide Los Angeles for an extended Ogwumike: Tiffany Hayes, Atlanta’s own first-round pick in 2023, the Sparks’ first-round pick that could be swapped with Washington, and Atlanta’s own second-round pick in 2023. In this package:
Atlanta gets another All-Star, which would significantly improve the team heading into the second half of the season. If the opportunity presents itself to land someone of Ogwumike’s talents, you can part with what could be a possible late first-round (swap with Washington) and middle of the pack (Atlanta’s own pick) pick, as you will be contending. With Ogwumike and Howard under contract for the foreseeable future and cap space, the Dream can look to make pitches to unrestricted free agents. Plus, Atlanta will still have its 2024 draft pick if anything were to go awry.
Los Angeles gets an expiring veteran contract, first-round picks, and a second-round pick, which can help the team focus on its younger players moving forward. In this scenario, since the team is also projected to have lots of cap space and no star under contract in 2023: instead of trying to acquire older veterans, the Sparks could look to poach another team’s restricted free agent with a loaded offer sheet (such as bringing someone like Mabrey back or acquiring McCowan). Also, the team could pursue talent looking for more money that their original team may not be able to provide (acquiring someone like Brionna Jones or Moriah Jefferson). Ideally, Los Angeles would be looking for relatively younger talent who have shown they can give quality production in a bigger role.
Another package for an extended Ogwumike that could arise is one with the New York Liberty, in which the Sparks acquire: Natasha Howard, New York’s 2023 first-round pick, and the rights to Nyara Sabally, Sika Kone, Raquel Carrera, and Marine Fauthoux
One of the catalysts behind New York’s up and down play was the lack of true scoring options behind Ionescu and Howard, as Laney has been out recovering from injury. In this deal, New York is getting an MVP-caliber talent which could propel them into a contending team. Plus, the Liberty would still have the cap space in 2023 to acquire another star to add to the team, possibly giving the WNBA its first star-studded superteam in quite some time.
For the Sparks, they would be getting an All-Star and versatile forward in Howard, who is under contract until the end of 2024. This gives the Sparks a bit of leverage if they still want to be in competition for the playoffs. Considering that they now have a first-round pick and cap space in 2023, they could try a hybrid of an older All-Star with young productive talent.
Regarding their rights acquisitions, Nyara Sabally was the fifth overall pick in 2022 and someone whom analysts think can be a productive player when healthy. Kone ended up being a 2022 draft-and-stash, but CBS Sports’ and ESPN’s mock drafts had the Malian prospect as high as eighth overall. Carrera and Fauthoux are players under 22 who the Sparks could bring on board at a later date to see how they fare in the WNBA. For Los Angeles, this deal nets them an All-Star with many years left on her existing deal, a first-round draft pick for next year, rights to young players, and cap space in 2023. Rome was not built in one day, but a deal such as this could be the first pillars of a much-needed rebuild for the Sparks.
Phoenix and Los Angeles are examples of a recurring trend in basketball: teams that often trade away their future for a shaky present. To be fair though, things can easily look irrational in hindsight. Ultimately, we will not have seen the last of draft picks that have moved from team to team.
At the end of the day, fans will definitely be following the standings to see who has a chance at a top-four pick and whose team will be on the opposite end of the spectrum. For those who miss the playoffs, they have a chance to rectify their misfortunes and bring the team back to the limelight. With the way draft picks are scattered across the W, another team’s castaway could be another team’s treasure.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
This stuff seems to make sense