2021 Reflections and 2022 Forecast: Atlanta Dream
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Copyright 2020 NBAE (Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via GettyImages)
The Atlanta Dream have had two straight top-four picks in the WNBA draft and are destined to have a third in 2022. That’s good for a team that needs to build its roster. The flip side of that is that they haven’t been to the playoffs since 2018. That year, they finished second in the standings but bowed out to the Washington Mystics in five games in the semifinals.
By the numbers
Record: 8-24 (0.250, third-worst in franchise history). They failed to qualify for the playoffs for the third straight season.
Points per game: Points scored 78.7 (9th), Points allowed 84.3 (10th), Scoring margin -5.6 (10th)
Ratings: Offensive 95.2 (9th), Defensive 103.1 (11th), Net -7.9 (11th)
Pace: 81.6 (5th)
2021 Synopsis
Since their last playoff appearance, the Dream have been selling the future. The problem is that the present got in the way of getting to that future in 2021. Last offseason started off great when the controversy over the team’s ownership was settled. Political conflicts between the players, the fans, and former part-owner Kelly Loeffler had become a major sticking point. A group that included former Dream player Renee Montgomery stepped in and bought the team. It looked like the first step forward.
Then, the team made several free agent signings. The loss of Betnijah Laney turned out to be a big blow as she had a strong season for the New York Liberty, but it didn’t seem like a backbreaker at the time.
The team brought in veterans Odyssey Sims and Tianna Hawkins. After over five years away from the league, the Dream also signed Crystal Bradford. While none of the signings were major, the foundation seemed solid enough to support stars like Chennedy Carter, Tiffany Hayes, and Courtney Williams.
Then, they got the No. 3 pick in the draft. The Dream used that to draft Aari McDonald who had just risen to national stardom by taking the Arizona Wildcats to their first NCAA Tournament title game.
The question was where she fit in a very crowded Atlanta backcourt with several ball-dominant guards. It was just one of several issues the Dream would have to work on over the course of the season, but at least it was an on-court issue. Despite the ownership issues, off-court issues didn’t go away. They just changed.
Off the court, things were unsettled almost immediately. Just a week after the draft, the team fired Chris Sienko, their president and general manager. On May 3, head coach Nicki Collen would follow Sienko out the door, but this exit was of her choosing. Collen headed off to take the Baylor head coaching position that had just been vacated by Kim Mulkey.
Collen’s unexpected departure led to assistant coach Mike Petersen taking over as interim head coach. He relied heavily on the veterans, but even that didn’t ease things in the clubhouse.
An off-the-court altercation that had Williams and Bradford squaring off against several other women at a food truck was reported to the team in May, but they took no action at the time. Just over a month later, a verbal altercation on the bench between second-year star Carter and at least one teammate led the team to suspend Carter indefinitely.
Petersen departed shortly after the suspension of Carter. In his stead, Darius Taylor took over as the second interim head coach of the season.
It did not change much on the floor. Despite being guard-heavy, the Dream signed Blake Dietrick after the Olympic break. They also added veteran forward Candice Dupree after she was waived by the Seattle Storm. Carter did not return for the rest of the season. McDonald did not see a lot of court time until the end of the season when she started four games. The team continued to lose, ending the season 8-24 and second-to-last in the standings.
Cap Situation by Richard Cohen
The Atlanta Dream have a hell of a lot of work to do going into 2022. On the bright side, after hiring Tanisha Wright as their new head coach a couple of weeks ago, they finally added a new general manager—former Las Vegas Aces GM Dan Padover—so someone is now officially in charge of making all the roster and contract decisions that need to be made.
They’ve already stated that they will not be re-signing leading scorer Williams or forward Bradford, who was one of this year’s few Dream success stories. Bradford could’ve been retained as a reserved player and Williams would’ve been a prime candidate to be cored, but as the qualifying offers to create those statuses count as contract offers - which the players would then be within their rights to sign immediately - the offers will presumably not be given out. The players would therefore become unrestricted free agents.
That hamstrings Padover a little from the start, as Williams in particular would’ve had value even just as a trade chip. He’ll also need to deal with Carter, the star guard who was meant to be a building block even if they lost players to free agency. She spent much of 2021 suspended for conduct detrimental to the team, and that situation still had not been resolved by the end of the regular season.
In pure salary terms, the Dream's situation could either be seen as desperately scary or a great opportunity. They have very few people under contract, and of their free agents only Monique Billings (restricted) is expected to be under team control.
The likes of Hayes, Sims, Dupree and Elizabeth Williams will be unrestricted free agents who could walk away for no return. Atlanta will probably try to re-sign at least a couple of them but unless they use the core designation, which comes with a one-year supermax qualifying offer which would be an overpay for any of them, they’ll all be free to leave if they wish.
But should the Dream be all that worried about losing the core of a squad that's gone 15-39 over the last two years? The advantage of so many people being out of contract is that they have the opportunity to re-shape the roster almost from the ground up, especially if they can work things out with Carter (or trade her for a meaningful haul to ignite the new roster).
There's a vast amount of cap space here, and they could even create some more if necessary because Hawkins's $144,200 is entirely non-guaranteed. If they can convince free agents that the Dream are now a franchise worth joining rather than one that should be avoided at all costs, then an injection of outside talent could speed up the rebuild significantly.
They also have the draft rights to promising young international bigs Raquel Carrera and Li Yueru if they can talk them into actually showing up. So there's hope here, but there is also an enormous number of question marks.
Looking to 2022
The Dream have finally filled their front office and coaching vacancies. They hired a new president and chief operating officer in early September. Pegged for the position was veteran sports executive Morgan Shaw Parker. Shaw Parker joined the team from Arthur M. Blank Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta United. She had served as the vice president and chief marketing officer for the organization.
The coaching question was brought to a close a month later as Wright came aboard on Oct. 12. Wright had served for the last two years as an assistant under Bill Laimbeer with the Las Vegas Aces. Having a steady presence at the top of the coaching staff is a positive step forward for the organization and the players.
As for who will be responsible for signing those players, the announcement of Padover as general manager finally came on Oct. 25. It was an especially welcome decision since the organization went with a leader who has a very recent history with Wright. Bringing in the GM after hiring a coach can be risky if the GM perceives that coach as not his first choice, but the pair was together just two weeks ago in Las Vegas.
Hiring away the GM of the Las Vegas Aces is quite a coup. The Aces have been one of the top teams in the league and Padover has been able to bring some big free agents to the organization, including former Dream Angel McCoughtry and current star Liz Cambage. He would have been trying to keep both in Vegas as the two unrestricted free agents look to next season.
Padover will be the one deciding on the players going forward, but there are still questions. First and foremost, who are “the players?” Second, will the environment be conducive to them being successful?
Brandon Sudge of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote that Carter was “working with ownership” after her suspension in July. A month after the end of the season, there’s no public indication that whatever terms they set have been met. Whether those terms have or will change with Wright and Padover taking over is also unclear.
Carter is not the only player who is trying to find some stability even after the season. McDonald, who was always positive about the team and the stream of changes during her rookie year, left for Europe about a week after the Dream’s final game. She returned to the U.S. just three games into her contract with Hungarian team Uni Gyor stating that she needed to focus on her mental health in order to have her mind and body ready for the 2022 WNBA season.
Late in the season, Taylor said that Europe would be a good place for McDonald to build her confidence and continue her development in the offseason. He felt that having an entire season where she was the starter again would be crucial. Considering the wild fluctuation in her minutes during her rookie season, that seemed like a reasonable assumption.
But mind and body must work together. As tough as she has always been on the court, McDonald felt that the best place to find peace was back home. Whatever it takes to get ready for her second WNBA season is crucial for the Dream as a team and for McDonald as a player. She was not able to show her full range of talent as a rookie. To lay the groundwork for her future success, McDonald needs to show that talent to the GMs and head coaches once again. For the Dream to have success on the court in 2022, they need their No. 3 pick from last year to have confidence.
If Carter and Hayes return—and Hayes has no lingering issues from her injury—the combination of McDonald, Carter, and Hayes could be lethal. While Hayes is an established veteran, McDonald and Carter will be entering just their second and third seasons. They have a great deal of room to grow, and with so few established vets on the team, there is a prime opportunity for both to do that in Atlanta.
The Dream still have a lot of needs to fill for 2022, but if Carter returns, the frontcourt is the biggest requirement. They will have yet another high draft pick. Finding a young power forward or center should be their first order of business in April. Before that, they can look at the free-agent market for veterans who have already proven themselves at those positions in the WNBA. Billings had a strong season both as a starter and a reserve, but she cannot do it alone.
If they establish some stability, bring in a strong class of free agents, and make some good decisions on draft night, the team should have enough talent to start their climb back up the playoff pecking order. Then they can make the news for their on-court exploits again.
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