Beyond Brackets: Final Four
The stage is set in Cleveland for the finale of the NCAA women's basketball season.
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And then there were four! The field for Cleveland is set with No. 1 South Carolina, No. 1 Iowa, No. 3 UConn and No. 3 NC State emerging as the regional champions. Leading up to the biggest weekend of the season, the women’s game is thriving. Viewership records were shattered, including over 12 million average viewers for the rematch of last year’s national championship between LSU and Iowa on Monday. That all will culminate with what should be three excellent basketball games in Cleveland.
Three Shining Moments
JuJu Watkins is just getting started
USC fell a game short of the Final Four, but this season was still an incredible success for the Trojans in Watkins’ freshman year. Largely relegated to the hard-to-watch Pac-12 Network throughout the season, Watkins got to shine on the biggest stage in March Madness. She averaged 29.5 points across the two regional rounds, including 30 against Baylor to carry Southern California to the Elite Eight.
Oregon State’s sophomore class dazzles
Welcome to March, Raegan Beers and Timea Gardiner! The Beavers missed the NCAA Tournament last season but made it all the way to the Elite Eight in Beers’ and Gardiners’ March Madness debut. The duo combined for 39 points and 24 rebounds in the Sweet 16 to carry Oregon State to an improbable win despite the Beavers turning the ball over 21 more times than Notre Dame.
Texas rolls Gonzaga to make Elite Eight
When Rori Harmon tore her ACL in December, many thought the Longhorns’ chance at a deep March run were over. Instead, Texas finished its season as the Big 12 Tournament champion, a No. 1 seed, and among the final eight teams standing. Aaliyah Moore led the way in the Longhorns’ rout of the Zags in the Sweet 16, contributing 16 points and 10 rebounds.
All Second Weekend Team
The likes of Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese were fantastic this weekend. The brightest stars shined on the biggest stage. Here’s some of the other names that deserve credit for their teams’ deep March runs.
Sydney Affolter | Iowa
Caitlin Clark was undoubtedly fantastic for the Hawkeyes, but the performances of Affolter and Kate Martin in the Elite Eight were the difference makers. Affolter was perfect (6-for-6) from the floor in the Sweet 16, adding 15 points against Colorado. She followed that up with 16 points and five rebounds against LSU to help send Iowa to the Final Four.
Aziaha James | NC State
The Wolfpack’s unexpected run to Cleveland is on the back of Aziaha James, the latest to add her name to the list of stars in the 2023-24 season. James was sensational in the first half of the Elite Eight against Texas, knocking down five of six attempts from beyond the arc. She finished the game with seven triples and 27 points total. James also had 29 points against Stanford in the Sweet 16.
Ice Brady | UConn
Yes, Paige Bueckers was otherworldly for the Huskies, but the difference for UConn in the Elite Eight was freshman Ice Brady. Despite all the injuries and talk of lack of depth, the Huskies’ bench outscored Southern California’s 11-3 in the game. Eight of those 11 points came from Ice Brady, including a timely triple at the end of the third quarter.
Raven Johnson | South Carolina
It’s less about the numbers in Johnson’s stat sheet this past weekend, and more about the timing of her contributions. Perhaps none was more important than her triple in the fourth quarter to silence Indiana’s comeback hopes in the Sweet 16. Johnson also had six assists in the Gamecocks’ win over Oregon State to return to the Final Four.
Flau’jae Johnson | LSU
LSU fell to Iowa in the Elite Eight, but Johnson put together a spectacular run in this tournament. She was the best player on the floor in the Tigers’ win over UCLA in the Sweet 16, contributing 24 points and 12 rebounds. She then followed it up with another strong performance against the Hawkeyes despite foul trouble in the regional finals. The future is bright in Baton Rouge.
Final Four storylines
Can South Carolina finish its perfect season?
The Gamecocks are now 36-0 and back in the Final Four, just 80 minutes from completing a perfect season. Caitlin Clark and Iowa shocked the world by upsetting the freshies’ South Carolina squad in Dallas last season. This weekend, South Carolina will look for a different ending, one that involves lifting a trophy on Sunday afternoon. They have the talent and depth to do so and remain heavy favorites in Cleveland.
Only one thing left for Clark’s resume
All-time leading scorer, Big Ten Player of the Year, Big Ten champion, First-team All-American and National Player of the Year - the accolades associated with Caitlin Clark are endless. The only thing missing from the senior’s resume after last year’s run to the championship game is a national championship trophy. Can she add that to her stacked list of collegiate accomplishments this weekend?
Will the Huskies’ injuries catch up to them?
UConn in the Final Four often seems inevitable. This season, with now six season-ending injuries including Azzi Fudd and Aubrey Griffin among the most impactful, a trip to Cleveland seemed far-fetched. Yet, the Huskies are back to the national semifinals after a one-year hiatus. Paige Bueckers might be able to carry this squad further than that, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this is when the injuries and lack of depth finally catch up to UConn.
Unranked to the Final Four
NC State was unranked entering this season, and Wes Moore’s squad garnered little national attention before they beat UConn in November. Fast forward five months, and the Wolfpack are in the Final Four. On Friday, they’ll look to shock the world just like Iowa did last year and knock off the undisputed No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks.
This weekend by the numbers
2016: The last time a team finished as undefeated national champions. UConn did so in Breanna Stewart’s senior season. South Carolina will look to be the first team to do so this weekend.
41: Caitlin Clark scored 41 points in the Elite Eight against LSU, matching her total from last year’s Elite Eight matchup with Louisville. She also scored 41 in the Final Four win over South Carolina last season. This season, Clark has now topped 40 points on five occasions.
3: The number of times in the last 15 seasons that a player has had 28 points, nine rebounds, five assists, three steals and a block in an NCAA Tournament game. All three have been Paige Bueckers in the 2024 tournament.
Game(s) of the Final Four
(Let’s be honest - both of these should be fantastic!)
No. 3 NC State vs. No. 1 South Carolina | Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET
If the Gamecocks play to their potential, they’re heavy favorites to advance to the championship out of this matchup. That said, if NC State can stay hot from three, it could pull off the upset. The Gamecocks’ games were closer than expected in this year’s tournament, behind 13 made threes from Indiana and eight triples from Oregon State. Tennessee also had eight threes when it nearly upset South Carolina in the SEC Tournament. The Wolfpack made nine threes against Texas.
No. 3 UConn vs. No. 1 Iowa | Friday at 9:00 p.m. ET
This one is going to be billed as Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers. While the two will likely steal the spotlight, much like Monday it’s their supporting casts that will make the difference. Clark will get hers, as will Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards for the Huskies. How much the Hawkeyes’ other guards, such as Kate Martin and Gabby Marshall, can contribute and how much UConn’s freshmen step up on the biggest stage is likely to decide the outcome.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.