Beyond Brackets: Final Four
Standout performances from the regional rounds and a look ahead to the weekend in Tampa
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Bluesky, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Hello from Tampa! We’re down to the final weekend of the NCAA women’s basketball season and on Sunday afternoon we’ll have a 2025 national champion. In the meantime, UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and UConn have descended on Florida for a great weekend of basketball following thrilling regional weekends in Birmingham and Spokane. The regional round games were decided by an average of single digits, and this weekend should deliver even more exciting games between the four top teams in the country.
Four Shining Moments
Paige Bueckers scores 40 in UConn’s Sweet 16 win over Oklahoma
UConn trailed by four at halftime and went on to win its Sweet 16 matchup by 23 points. The difference maker? A career night from Paige Bueckers who dropped a career-high 40 points, 29 of which came in the second half. Bueckers outscored the entire Sooners squad in the second half, 29-23. She was 6-for-8 from deep in the game and shot just shy of 60 percent from the floor.
Sania Feagin steps up to send the Gamecocks back to the Final Four
South Carolina had a close call in the Elite Eight, outlasting Duke 54-50 to earn a trip to Tampa. Senior forward Sania Feagin was the X-factor for the Gamecocks, leading them to her fourth straight Final Four. Feagin did a little bit of everything for South Carolina in the win. She scored 12 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and added three assists, three steals (none more important than the one with four seconds remaining in the game) and two blocks.
No Betts, no problem
UCLA looked dangerous in the Elite Eight, proving it can beat you in multiple ways. In Sunday’s game, it looked like there could be trouble in store for the Bruins when star center Lauren Betts sat most of the second quarter with foul trouble. Instead, it was when UCLA created its separation from LSU. Behind the stellar 3-point shooting of Gabriela Jaquez and Timea Gardiner, who combined for nine triples in the game, the Bruins rode a 22-12 edge in the second quarter to Tampa.
Rori Harmon wrecks havoc on the Horned Frogs
Texas’ defense forced 21 turnovers in the Elite Eight and held TCU to 26.7 percent shooting from the floor. Perhaps no individual player was more impactful than Rori Harmon, who was tasked with defending Hailey Van Lith. Harmon was credited with just two steals, but her pressure on the former Louisville guard forced her to commit seven turnovers. While Van Lith led her team in scoring with 17 points, she was just 3-for-15 from the floor. Harmon also made strong contributions on the offensive end for Texas scoring 13 points, knocking down a rare three and adding five assists.
All Second Weekend Team
Flau’Jae Johnson | LSU
The Tigers didn’t advance to Tampa, but Johnson did everything she could to try and put her team on her back to get there. After struggling with just 3 points against NC State, Johnson scored 28 points against No. 1 overall seed UCLA on Sunday afternoon. She also added four rebounds, four assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks in the Elite Eight.
Toby Fournier | Duke
The future is bright in Durham! In Duke’s upset bid against the Gamecocks in the Elite Eight, the freshman scored 18 points, collected six rebounds and added three blocks. While Duke’s season ended in the Elite Eight, there’s lots to look forward to in Fournier’s college career with the Blue Devils.
Kennedy Smith | Southern California
There is not a better freshman defender in the country than Smith, and she showed it on the biggest stage in Spokane. Smith also scored a team high 19 points in USC’s Sweet 16 win over Kansas State. The talent of the Trojans’ freshmen - Smith, Avery Howell and Kayleigh Heckel - was on full display throughout the weekend. Even if USC is without JuJu Watkins for part of the season, the Trojans are going to be really good next season.
Hailey Van Lith | TCU
The Horned Frog’s historic season came to an end in the Elite Eight, but not without two more noteworthy performances from Van Lith. Van Lith led TCU with 26 points against Notre Dame to advance to the regional final and added 17 points against Texas in an otherwise ugly offensive night for the two-seed.
Liatu King | Notre Dame
In a game where the Irish couldn’t find the bottom on the basket, King kept her team afloat against TCU in the Sweet 16. She scored 17 points on 8-for-9 shooting for the floor and had a double-double with 10 rebounds. King set a new tournament record for field goal percentage (minimum of 3 games played and 5 field goal makes per game), shooting 87 percent throughout Notre Dame’s run this year.
Final Four storylines
SEC clash in Game 1
It’ll be South Carolina vs. Texas, round four for a spot in the national championship game on Sunday night. It will be the first time since UConn and Notre Dame met in the 2013 Final Four that a pair of teams will meet for the fourth time in the final weekend of the season. South Carolina currently owns the edge in the series this season, 2-1, after the Gamecocks and Longhorns split the regular season and South Carolina claimed the SEC conference tournament title. Texas will look to even the score on Friday night.
Can the Gamecocks repeat?
The reigning national champions head to Tampa, looking to repeat last year’s finale. South Carolina looks more vulnerable than last year, on the heels of their first stretch of back-to-back single digit NCAA Tournament games since 2017. That said, there’s now just two games between South Carolina and another title and the Gamecocks certainly have the pieces to get there.
First Final Four for UCLA
The Bruins capped off their first 30 win season, which earned them the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s field, with the program’s first trip to the Final Four (in the NCAA era). Behind the dominance of Lauren Betts in the post, UCLA will look to also add a program first NCAA Tournament title to this season’s accomplishments.
Can Paige Bueckers add an elusive championship to her already phenomenal UConn career
By the numbers, the Huskies have been the most dominant team so far this tournament, with an average margin of victory of 35 points per game through their first four contests. In addition to the star power of Bueckers and freshman Sarah Strong, the Huskies now have the depth that has eluded them the last few seasons. If they can win two more games this weekend, Bueckers can add the final piece to her collegiate accolades - a national title.
This weekend by the numbers
32: South Carolina’s total margin against Texas in their three meetings this season. The Gamecocks won convincingly in both of their victories, and lost by just four points on the road in the Longhorn’s lone win.
35: The combined number of Final Fours for the four head coaches in Tampa. Geno Auriemma has been to a record setting 24 with UConn women’s basketball. Dawn Staley has taken South Carolina to seven Final Fours. Vic Schaefer is making his third appearance and first with Texas (his previous two trips were with Mississippi State). This is Cori Close’s first Final Four.
4.25: The average margin of victory predicted by the Her Hoop Stats model for Friday’s games. The model favors South Carolina over Texas by 2.3 points and favors UConn over UCLA by 6.2 points.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.