Beyond Brackets: First Four, Round of 64, and Round of 32
The biggest storylines and potential upsets for the first weekend
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Selection Sunday has come and gone, and the field is set. With no more bracketology updates to provide for this season, it’s time to move on to the Big Dance. The action tips off on Wednesday with the First Four, and the round of 64 will commence on Friday.
Each week of the tournament, I’ll take a look at the biggest storyline that will shape the next weekend, identify potential upsets in the field, highlight the best matchups and more. After the first weekend, I’ll also reflect on the best moments from the games of the past week.
First weekend storylines
Two-bid Ivy League sends No. 12 Columbia to its first NCAA Tournament
After sharing the regular-season conference title with No. 9 Princeton and losing to the Tigers in the Ivy Madness championship on Sunday, Columbia earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Lions will compete in their first-ever NCAA Tournament game as a part of the First Four on Wednesday when they take on No. 12 Vanderbilt. The winner of that matchup will face No. 5 Baylor in the round of 64 on Friday.
Elizabeth Kitley’s status for No. 4 Virginia Tech
The status of the Hokies’ All-American center for Friday’s NCAA Tournament opener is unclear. Kitley, who injured her knee in Virginia Tech’s regular season finale, did not play in the ACC Tournament and Kenny Brooks did not give any definitive answer on whether she will give it a go against No. 13 Marshall. Virginia Tech advanced to the ACC Tournament semifinals without Kitley two weekends ago before falling to eventual champion Notre Dame. Georgia Amoore may be able to carry this squad to the round of 32, but a trip to the second weekend could be in doubt if Kitley can’t suit up.
Potential round of 32 meeting for No. 3 LSU and No. 6 Louisville
While both teams will first need to win their first-round games, it’s hard not to look ahead to Hailey Van Lith possibly facing her old team in the round of 32. LSU is on a path to clash with Louisville on Sunday, meaning Van Lith would suit up for the Tigers against her former teammates and coach. Beyond the storylines surrounding the former Louisville star, this potential meeting is also exciting from a basketball perspective. It’s always fun to watch Jeff Walz and Kim Mulkey go toe to toe, and the battle between Angel Reese and Olivia Cochran in the lane should be a great matchup.
Will No. 12 FGCU pull off the upset again?
FGCU continues to be underseeded and once again lands on the 12-seed line, which is familiar territory for the Eagles. They’ve pulled off the upset in the 5/12 game in three of the last five tournaments. The matchup with No. 5 Oklahoma poses the question: could they do it again? FGCU and the Sooners are neck and neck in Her Hoop Stats rating at 34th and 33rd, respectively. Both teams rely heavily on the three ball which could make for a fun round of 64 contest.
This weekend by the numbers
14: The number of wins by double-digit seeds in the last two NCAA Tournaments (excluding the First Four). No. 12 FGCU, No. 10 UNLV, No. 11 Texas A&M, No. 11 Green Bay and No. 10 Maryland are among the favorites to add to that tally this year.
20.7: Her Hoop Stats’ tournament simulation gives Duke a 20.7 percent chance of reaching the Sweet 16, the highest of any team seeded as a No. 6 seed or worse.
9: The number of assists Nika Mühl needs to claim first place on UConn’s all-time assist leaderboard. Already ahead of the likes of Sue Bird, Jennifer Rizzotti and Diana Taurasi, Mühl only has Moriah Jefferson to pass in the No. 1 spot. Averaging 6.4 assists per game, she is on pace to do so this weekend if UConn advances to the round of 32.
Upset watch
No. 11 Middle Tennessee over No. 6 Louisville | Baton Rouge | Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET
Ranked 25th and 26th in Her Hoop Stats rating, this is close to a 50-50 game on a neutral court. Middle Tennessee has not lost a game in 2024 and already has an upset win over Tennessee earlier this season.
No. 11 Auburn/Arizona over No. 6 Syracuse | Storrs | Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
If Arizona wins the play-in game, I like them over Syracuse in the Storrs subregional. The Wildcats have played No. 1 Southern California close twice in the past three weeks and are battle-tested from Pac-12 play. The Her Hoop Stats model favors them over the Orange on a neutral court. If Auburn advances this is also a 50-50 game, but with Syracuse losing three of its last four, the Tigers could be a solid pick.
Game of the first round
No. 7 Iowa State vs No. 10 Maryland | Stanford | Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET
The 7/10 matchups always make for good basketball, and this one is particularly intriguing. Both teams are coming off impressive conference tournament runs. Iowa State reached the Big 12 final before losing to No. 1 seed Texas behind the fantastic play of center Audi Crooks, who is averaging 18.9 points per game in her freshman season. Maryland toppled No. 2 seed Ohio State by 21 points in the Big Ten quarterfinals before bowing out to No. 6 Nebraska in the semis. Shyanne Sellers had 25 points in the upset of the Buckeyes. Sellers and Crooks on the big stage in March should make for a fun one on Friday night.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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