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Hi! My name’s Justin Carter and I write about women’s basketball. I’m new around here at Her Hoop Stats, so I thought I’d just quickly say hello to you, dear readers, before I launch into this Big 12 roundup. Every other week, I’ll be telling you what’s happening around one of the best women’s basketball conferences there is. Let’s start in a place that none of us want to start in: injuries.
Baylor and Texas have been wracked by injuries
The Big 12 was supposed to be an intense, four-way battle for supremacy. And considering we haven’t reached conference play yet, we can’t definitively say that it won’t be, but injuries have killed the momentum of two of those favorites, Baylor and Texas.
Let’s start with the Longhorns, who haven’t had sophomore point guard Rori Harmon yet as she rehabs from a foot injury. Harmon came onto the scene last year and made an immediate impact on both ends of the floor with her ability to seamlessly run the Texas offense while also pressuring ball handlers on the other end. Last season, Texas had a defensive rating of 80.6, which ranked in the 96th percentile. This year, without Harmon, they currently sit at 88.7, which is in the 61st percentile. As for the offense, the Longhorns have picked up their pace this year, but are scoring fewer points than they were last year, which…well, usually an increase in pace leads to an increase in scoring, since there are more offensive possessions. But after scoring 101.2 points per 100 possessions last season, that number has plummeted over the first four games of this season, down to 89.6.
The Longhorns are already almost halfway to last year’s loss total, as the team sits at 1-3, with a three-game losing streak. And while two of those losses came against UConn and Louisville, the team also lost to Marquette. No offense to the Golden Eagles, but a preseason top-five team shouldn’t lose to Marquette, even factoring in the absence of Harmon.
And then there’s Baylor. Like the Horns, the Bears are fielding a team full of transfers this year, and also like Texas, they’ve suffered a key injury to a crucial player. For the Bears, that player is Mizzou transfer Aijha Blackwell, arguably the best rebounding wing in the country and someone whose ability to score at multiple levels was supposed to make this Bears team incredibly dangerous. But Blackwell left the SMU game early with a leg injury, and it looks like she’s going to be out for a while:
While Texas has the benefit of knowing that it gets its best player back soon, Baylor has to deal with the long-term absence of its best player. The Bears still have a lot of talented players on this team like Sarah Andrews and freshman Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, but Kentucky transfer Dre’Una Edwards has yet to suit up, and Caitlin Bickle has played just one game. This team is currently very shallow up front, and that's going to be an issue going forward. In Sunday’s loss to Maryland, the team had a defensive rebounding percentage of just 57.6%, the program’s lowest in nearly three years. The Bears also allowed 105.7 points per 100 possessions; their worst game before that was against SMU, when the defensive rating was 78.1.
All of these injury issues plus Oklahoma’s consistency concerns have Iowa State looking poised to solidify its place at the top of this conference.
Weekly recap:
Oh, you want some expansion on “Oklahoma’s consistency concerns?” Sure, let’s look at what the Sooners have done so far this year. The team is 4-1, but those wins haven’t been the most impressive, as they include an 11-point win over Oral Roberts and a nine-point win over UT Arlington. But the loss…well, the loss was bad, as the Sooners fell to Utah by 46 points. FORTY-SIX. Oklahoma gave up 124 points in the rout, the most by a major conference team since 2013. Losing like that to any team—even one that looks as good as Utah has looked—isn’t a good sign.
Meanwhile, Iowa State is off to a strong start. The Cyclones are 4-0, rank 14th in scoring offense, 11th in offensive rating, and are getting some great contributions all over. There will be plenty of chances this year to write about Ashley Joens, but another key for the Cyclones has been Stephanie Soares, a 6-foot-6 center from Brazil who gives Iowa State a really strong paint presence.
Elsewhere in the conference, Kansas State, Kansas and West Virginia are all undefeated. The Wildcats have one of the biggest wins of the year, knocking off then-No. 4 Iowa 84-83. Gabby Gregory and Serena Sundell each scored 24 points in that one. Not having Ayoka Lee this year because of knee surgery is still a major concern, but the team is weathering things so far.
The Jayhawks are 3-0 but haven’t played the toughest schedule yet, beating Jacksonville, UT Arlington and UTRGV. Of those, the best win is over UTA, with Kansas winning 79-74 over a Mavs team that’s one of the WAC’s best programs.
And the Mountaineers are 3-0 as well, but like Kansas, the strength of schedule isn’t great. Additionally, WVU is likely looking at its first loss soon, as it takes on NC State on Friday.
Beyond that, Oklahoma State is 4-1, while Texas Tech is 3-1. TCU sits right at .500, beating Lipscomb and UTSA but losing to UNC and South Florida.
HHS Big 12 Player of the Week(s): For the first of likely many times, this goes to Ashley Joens from Iowa State. The Cyclones’ star has the team undefeated behind her 25.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. The high-usage forward has had some really strong showings so far, and her worst game was against Southern, when she had 15 points and 14 rebounds.
Runner-up: Kansas State’s Gabby Gregory has scored 19 or more points in all but one game this season, and that game was against UTRGV, when she only played 20 minutes. Gregory has been hot from outside, including going 6-for-14 from behind the arc in Sunday’s win over Utah Tech.
Looking ahead:
We’ve got a lot of basketball this week, because it’s Thanksgiving tournament time! Check out the Her Hoop Stats: Unplugged podcast if you want a run-down of all of these tournaments and the potential matchups that we might see in them. I don’t want to get too speculative, so I’m not going to list any games that aren’t 100% happening in this list of games to watch over the next two weeks.
Top Big 12 games to watch over the next two weeks:
All times are Eastern
Iowa State vs Michigan State - Phil Knight Invitational - Thursday, Nov. 24 - 7:30 p.m. - ESPNU
South Florida at Texas - Friday, Dec. 2 - 8:00 p.m. - Longhorn Network
Ole Miss at Oklahoma - Sunday, Dec. 4 - 3:00 p.m. - ESPN+
Honorable mention Big 12 games:
Clemson vs Kansas State - Paradise Jam - Thursday, Nov. 24 - 8:00 p.m. - ESPN3
NC State vs West Virginia - Cancun Challenge - Friday, Nov. 25 - 4:00 p.m. - FloSports
Kansas State vs Arkansas - Paradise Jam - Saturday, Nov. 26 - 8:00 p.m. - ESPN3
Texas A&M at Kansas - Wednesday, Nov. 30 - 8:00 Pp.m.M - ESPN+
TCU at Rice - Friday, Dec. 2 - 8:00 p.m. - ESPN+
Big 12 standings:
Here are the current Big 12 standings:
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.