Big 12 Roundup: Let’s Talk About Kansas State
Plus, Micah Gray's getting a chance to shine at Oklahoma State
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Welcome to another Big 12 Roundup, our bi-weekly look around the conference.
As we near the end of non-conference play, there remain numerous questions about the conference. Six teams have 10 or more wins and just four teams have lost at least three games, but unbalanced schedules make it tough to read into pure numbers. Iowa State has three losses, for example, but two of those are to ranked teams. Texas Tech has lost just twice, but both were to unranked teams.
Let’s look at some of the conference’s major storylines from the last two weeks.
Kansas State’s offense is key to its early success
Sometimes, the right answer to a question just happens to be the easiest one.
In this case, I mean that the answer to “what’s the best Big 12 team” might just be the conference’s preseason No. 1 team, Kansas State.
The Wildcats sit at 11-1 on the season and have been a monster on both ends of the floor, ranking first in the country in offensive rating and net rating and seventh in defensive rating.
Last season, defense was the calling card for Kansas State, which went 26-8 in large part because the team ranked sixth in defensive rating. But last year’s ceiling was capped by an offense that was good, but not quite great, with the Wildcats finishing 63rd in offensive rating.
The most impressive aspect of the Wildcats’ offense is the balanced scoring load. Ayoka Lee is averaging 16.4 points per game to lead the team, but she’s just seventh on the roster in minutes per game.
Per Hoop Explorer, the Wildcats’ numbers don’t really change much when Lee is on vs. off the floor. They score 121.0 luck-adjusted points per 100 possessions with Lee on the floor and 123.6 with her off the floor. Compare that to last season, when they was at 105.9 points per 100 possessions with Lee on the floor but fell to 94.9 with her off.
Lee is still the engine on the inside, but Kansas State has optimized the lineups around her. The team ranks 17th in the nation in 3-point attempts, a pretty big jump from 73rd last year.
The pieces around Lee have really taken a step forward. Jaelyn Glenn has improved her field-goal percentage from 39.1% to 45.0%, fueled by a 10 percentage-point increase in her 3-point percentage. Zyanna Walker’s efficiency is about where it was last season, but she’s upped her volume.
If the shooting efficiency from the team’s perimeter players keeps up, this is one of the most dangerous teams in the country, especially if Lee can scale her minutes up in the postseason.
Micah Gray is playing really good basketball
Two seasons ago, the Cowgirls looked like an ascendant program, winning 21 games. But last season, OSU crashed back to earth, finishing two games under .500.
OSU is already just five wins away from last year’s total, sitting at 9-1 through the first 10 games of the season. And sure, some of that might be a bit of an illusion as the team’s opponent average win percentage of 35.2% ranks 343rd in the country, but you can only beat the teams you play, right?
A major part of OSU’s success has been because Micah Gray is getting a chance to shine. Gray began her career at Texas Southern in 2022, where she averaged 16.7 points per game for the Tigers. She then moved on to Seton Hall, where her scoring and efficiency took a dip.
But Gray’s averaging 17.2 points on 47.3% shooting this season as Oklahoma State’s lead option. That includes a 36-point explosion against Chicago State. Gray’s a talented scorer, and Oklahoma State’s season will likely come down to whether or not Gray can keep this up when the competition gets tougher in conference play.
How good is Baylor?
Non-conference Baylor tends to be a tough team to get a read on, largely because non-conference Baylor played fairly light competition back during the Kim Mulkey era.
This year, the Bears are 9-2 and sport one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive rating. Despite that, I have some reservations about the Bears. They are 0-2 against Quad 1 teams and just 2-2 when playing away from Waco.
The biggest concern for Baylor is basically the same concern that’s been around for the whole Nicki Collen era, which is that the team lacks depth. Jana Van Gytenbeek tore her ACL in the season opener, so Yaya Felder is the only reserve player averaging more than 15 minutes per game. Felder is shooting the ball well, but the lack of reliable interior depth is something that can really come back to bite this squad.
Things aren’t good in the state of Arizona
It’s not a good time to be a Big 12 program from Arizona.
Looking at the last five games for each team to normalize the results some, the Wildcats and Sun Devils both are having some issues.
They’re two of the three Big 12 teams with a sub-.500 record in this span, joined by the disaster that’s been the 2024-25 Houston Cougars. Arizona State is one of just two Big 12 teams with a negative net rating in that span.
Arizona has a roster capable of bouncing back. The team has lost three games recently, but they weren’t awful losses, falling to Vanderbilt, Cal and Grand Canyon. Yes, a loss to a WAC program is objectively bad when you’re a Big 12 team, but GCU looks really strong this year, led by Trinity San Antonio’s scoring prowess.
Arizona State sits at just 5-5 on the year and is one of only two Big 12 teams with a Quad 4 loss. The Sun Devils have struggled on both ends of the floor and don’t have many sources of offense outside of the duo of Tyi Skinner and Jalyn Brown.
Big 12 Player of the Week(s)
Audi Crooks (Iowa State): For the first time this season, Sedona Prince isn’t in this spot, but the award remains with the center position. Since Dec. 3, Crooks ranks third in the conference in points per game, but her 23.8 per contest have come in four games, while the players ahead of her have played one and two games, respectively.
Top Upcoming Games
All times Eastern
Tuesday, Dec. 17 - Iowa State at UConn - 8:30 p.m. - FOX Sports 1
Saturday, Dec. 21 - Iowa State at Oklahoma State - 5:00 p.m. - ESPN2
Saturday, Dec. 21 - Baylor at Kansas - 5:00 p.m. - ESPN+
Sunday, Dec. 29 - Brown at TCU - 3:00 p.m. - ESPN+
Current Standings
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