Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Welcome back to the Big 12 Roundup, Her Hoop Stats’ bi-weekly glance around the Big 12. What new storylines have developed in the past two weeks? Let’s take a look at some recent happenings in the conference, beginning with a look at Iowa State center Stephanie Soares.
Stephanie Soares has revamped Iowa State’s defense
Iowa State has been the Big 12’s best team so far. Sure, Kansas is the lone Big 12 team without a loss, but when you consider that the Cyclones’ only loss is to UNC and that Kansas hasn’t played a ranked team yet, I think it’s safe to call Iowa State the top team.
And while we knew coming into the season that the Cyclones’ offense would be consistently good, there’s been another development that was a little less expected: the defense is good too.
(Before we look at the numbers, a caveat: the Cyclones opponent's average winning percentage so far this season is 55.9% vs. 58.6% over the course of the whole season last year. Small difference, but it’s worth mentioning to give some context. The schedule will get more difficult when conference play arrives.)
Iowa State hasn’t really been a great defensive squad over the last few seasons. Last year, the team ranked in the 56th percentile in defensive rating, giving up 90 points per 100 possessions. The season before that, Iowa State’s defensive rating was 97.7, placing it in the 21st percentile. So far this year, the team has an 83.8 defensive rating, which ranks in the 79th percentile. It’s the team’s lowest defensive rating in the Her Hoop Stats database, which goes back to the 2009-10 season.
So, what’s changed this year? The addition of 6-foot-6 center Stephanie Soares.
Soares has been one of the best rim protectors in college basketball this season. Her 3.1 blocks per game rank fourth in Division I, and her 5.4 blocks per 40 minutes rank ninth.
One thing that makes Soares so dangerous is that in addition to her size, she’s got great instincts. On the play above, Soares is initially defending the driving guard for Michigan State, but when the ball is passed off to the rolling big, Soares seamlessly turns her attention to her, doubling the Spartans’ player in the paint and knocking the shot attempt away. Soares isn’t just some paint-bound center who impacts the game in a one-on-one post-up scenario. She’s a mobile big who can find the ball and alter shots.
But blocks don’t always tell the entire story. To get a real sense of how important Soares has been, let’s turn to some data about Iowa State’s defense this year vs. last year.
Per CBB Analytics, Iowa State’s opponents are shooting 48.5% at the rim this season and 30.8% on non-rim paint attempts. Let’s compare that to last year, when the team didn’t have Soares patrolling the paint: 62.6% at the rim and 34.8% on non-rim paint attempts.
Digging even deeper, the Cyclones have a defensive rating of 82.3 this season with Soares on the floor, while it drops to 91.5 when she’s off the floor. The defensive impact of Soares is clear.
If there’s a downside with Soares right now, it’s that her offensive impact at the rim isn’t quite where her defensive impact is. She’s averaging 7.2 attempts per game at the rim, which ranks in the 99th percentile nationally. She’s shooting 69.8% on those attempts, which is good, but maybe not quite as good as you’d like from a player with Soares’ size, as it ranks in the 76th percentile. Still, she makes up for some occasional inefficiency at the basket by grabbing 2.3 offensive rebounds per game, and she’s also brought some floor-stretching to the court, shooting 36.8% from deep on 2.7 attempts per game.
Weekly recap
Iowa State’s not the only team in the Big 12 that’s finding success early. Thanks to non-conference schedules that don’t always feature the toughest opponents, all but two of the teams in the conference are over .500. The two teams that aren’t are Texas and TCU.
Texas sits at 4-4, but the Longhorns have also had to deal with Rori Harmon’s foot injury, which has limited her to three appearances this season. The Longhorns are 2-1 with Harmon, with the one loss coming to a South Florida team that’s also defeated Alabama, TCU and Georgia Tech.
While Texas is only at .500, the team is 3-1 over the last four games. With the team finally healthy, it looks like Texas might be “back,” and I don’t mean that in the joking “Is Texas back?” way that it’s said on the football side. The Longhorns hit a rough patch early but have two wins by double-digits in three games with Harmon.
Other than Texas and TCU, every team is at least four games over .500. Baylor and Oklahoma, the other two preseason favorites along with Iowa State and Texas, have dealt with some adversity, but both have persevered. The last time this column came out, the Sooners had recently been blown out 124-78 by Utah. Since then, the team is 4-0, including a 10-point win over Ole Miss.
As for Baylor, the Bears have weathered the storm of being without Aijha Blackwell. There were losses to Maryland and Michigan, but both were close games, and the team took down a ranked Villanova team in between those contests.
Meanwhile, Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia are all one-loss teams, but there are varying degrees of what their records mean. The Wildcats’ only loss came against undefeated Arkansas, and they have some big wins, including over Iowa earlier in the season. All three wins since our last column have come by double-digits, including a 76-38 takedown of Clemson.
Texas Tech’s 7-1 overall, and is 4-0 since our last column. But those wins might not be the most impressive. Sure, they beat Middle Tennessee, a team that knocked off Louisville, but the other wins are over Mercer, Alabama State and UIW. So, it’s hard to really get an idea of where this Tech program is at right now.
West Virginia has gone 3-1 over the past two weeks, but the loss was a big one: 78-40 to NC State. Sure, you might expect the Mountaineers to lose to a ranked Wolfpack squad, but losing by 38 is tough. Also, WVU’s opponents this season have won a combined 20.7% of their games, giving them the second-easiest schedule in the country by opponent win percentage.
HHS Big 12 Player of the Week(s): Stephanie Soares, who I already wrote about at the top of the article. Let’s just go a little longer than we usually would on this week’s POTW runner-up.
Runner-up: Kansas’s Taiyanna Jackson has been a key part of the Jayhawks’ 7-0 start this season. The 6-foot-6 center—that seems to be a trend this week when talking about players who are performing well—was on the Big 12 All-Defensive team last year, when she set a school record for blocked shots.
This season, Jackson’s continued to wow on defense, blocking 2.6 shots per game while adding 1.4 steals, but she’s also stepped things up offensively. She averaged 8.9 points on 61.4% shooting last season; this season, she’s at 16.1 points on 69.2% shooting. In four games since our last roundup, Jackson’s scored at least 14 points each time out. She shot 75% or better from the floor in three of those games. Having an efficient big like Jackson could be what gets Kansas back to the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row. The last time the Jayhawks had back-to-back appearances in the tournament? The 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
Top Big 12 games to watch over the next two weeks:
All times are Eastern
Iowa State @ Iowa - Wednesday, Dec. 7 - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN2
Kansas @ Arizona - Thursday, Dec. 8 - 7:00 p.m. - Pac-12 Network
Iowa State vs Villanova in Uncasville, CT - Sunday, Dec. 18 - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN
Arizona vs Baylor in Dallas, TX - Sunday, Dec. 18 - 7:30 p.m. - ESPN2
Honorable mention Big 12 games:
UT Arlington @ Baylor - Wednesday, Dec. 7 - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN+
South Dakota State vs Kansas State in Kansas City, MO - Saturday, Dec. 10 - 2:00 p.m.
Texas @ Jackson State - Wednesday, Dec. 14 - 12:00 p.m. - JSU Sports Network
USC vs Texas in Dallas, TX - Sunday, Dec. 18 - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN2
Big 12 standings:
Here are the current Big 12 standings:
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.