One Stat to Watch for Each Big 12 Team
One Stat to Watch for Each Big 12 Team
Evaluating which stats are important to each team’s success
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Will this be the season someone dethrones Baylor as Big 12 regular season champions? If so, who? If you ask the Big 12’s coaches, their answers would be ‘yes’ and ‘Iowa State.’ If you instead posed the question to AP voters, the AP preseason poll implies they would reply ‘yes’ and ‘Texas.’ Perhaps it’s the amount of roster turnover across the conference that has made it difficult to evaluate teams and reach a consensus. Whatever the reason, one thing’s for sure: the Big 12 is going to be a wild, unpredictable ride. I for one can’t wait!
To help prepare for this journey, I have identified a stat to watch this season for each of the conference’s 10 teams. Some of these represent areas where the team needs to improve; others are areas where the team already excels and just needs to maintain a high level of play. Either way, they indicate aspects that will prove critical to a team’s success.
Baylor
2021-22 record: 28-7 (15-3 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: AP No. 18, picked fourth in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Whether the production of transfers Aijha Blackwell and Dre’Una Edwards last season will carry over
It’s never easy replacing two WNBA first-round picks, but that’s the task Baylor head coach Nicki Collen faced after the Indiana Fever drafted NaLyssa Smith and Queen Egbo in April. Collen bringing in the country’s ninth-best class per ESPN’s rankings, the only Big 12 representative in the top 10, cushioned that blow a bit. Her transfer portal signings of Aijha Blackwell (Missouri) and Dre’Una Edwards (Kentucky) made the prospect of a 13th consecutive Big 12 regular season crown an achievable goal.
Though, it becomes pure fantasy if Blackwell’s and Edwards’ numbers from their 2021-22 campaigns don’t carry over to Baylor. But which numbers, you may ask? Well, let’s start with scoring – Blackwell and Edwards combined to average 32.2 points per contest last season. Duplicating that level of production would go a long way toward replacing the combined 33.1 points per outing from Smith and Egbo. And then there’s rebounding, specifically controlling the defensive glass. Smith and Egbo ranked in the top five percent in defensive boards per game; Blackwell led the nation with a whopping 10.5 defensive rebounds.
On paper, it feels like Baylor has the talent to make AP voters feel foolish for their No. 18 preseason ranking. However, if Blackwell and Edwards aren’t able to hit the ground running in Waco, the Bears could find themselves in unfamiliar territory – not atop the Big 12 standings.
Iowa State
2021-22 record: 28-7 (14-4 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: AP No. 8, picked first in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Opponent turnover rate
Except for Aubrey Joens, who transferred to Oklahoma, Iowa State returns its core from last season’s Sweet Sixteen squad. Bill Fennelly’s five-out scheme produced the nation’s best 3-point shooting team and the seventh-highest offensive rating in Division I. Led by two-time Cheryl Miller Award (best small forward) winner Ashley Joens, Iowa State was picked as the team most likely to end Baylor’s streak of 12 consecutive Big 12 regular season titles.
If the Cyclones hope to make that a reality, they need to improve last season’s No. 331 ranking in opponent turnover rate. Iowa State also managed only 5.3 steals per outing, 340th in the country. Of course, turnovers limit an opponent’s chances to score, and live-ball turnovers have the added benefit of giving one of college basketball’s most efficient offenses more opportunities. Even a modest improvement in this area could be enough to catapult the Cyclones to a Big 12 title and into the national championship picture.
Kansas
2021-22 record: 21-10 (11-7 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: Received votes in AP top 25, picked fifth in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Block rate
The Jayhawks, who return 11 players including four starters, look to parlay last year’s 20-win season and second-round NCAA Tournament appearance into another successful campaign in 2022-23. Whether that comes to fruition will depend on Kansas’ ability to maintain its superb rim protection.
The Jayhawks ranked sixth in the nation in block rate, rejecting 13.8% of opponents’ two-point attempts. That resulted in Kansas leading the Big 12 in opponent field-goal percentage and opponent two-point percentage and placing in the 92nd percentile in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim per CBB Analytics Their ability to replicate these numbers will hinge on 6-foot-6 senior center Taiyanna Jackson, who joined Brittney Griner, Natasha Mack, and Latricia Lovings as the only players since the 2009-10 season to average at least 3.5 blocks during Big 12 play.
Kansas State
2021-22 record: 20-13 (9-9 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: Received votes in AP top 25, picked sixth in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Three-point percentage
Kansas State was dealt a massive blow this offseason when its All-American center Ayoka Lee underwent season-ending knee surgery. In addition to averaging a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double, the 6-foot-6 phenom ranked in the top 10 nationally in points and blocks per contest. Lee was the focal point of K-State’s offense, leading the Big 12 with a 32.3% usage rate.
But she has never attempted a three-pointer in her collegiate career, so why on earth is the stat to watch something seemingly unconnected to the Wildcats’ best player? Lee’s presence commands a lot of defensive attention, creating opportunities for her teammates on the perimeter. Lee’s absence will make it easier for opponents to guard the perimeter.
Even before Lee’s injury, K-State coach Jeff Mittie made improved three-point shooting a point of emphasis during the offseason. The Wildcats were last in the conference, hitting only 27.4% of their shots from beyond the arc during Big 12 play. To address this need, Mittie brought in players like Oklahoma transfer Gabby Douglas (90 triples in her first two seasons with the Sooners) capable of consistently knocking down shots from long distance.
Which of the two competing forces - lower-quality looks from the outside due to Lee’s absence or improvements in outside shooting ability - will have a greater impact this season? It’s unclear at this point, but the answer will go a long way toward determining K-State’s fortunes on offense this year.
Oklahoma
2021-22 record: 25-9 (12-6 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: AP No. 15, picked third in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Percentage of opponent field goal attempts at the rim
Oklahoma’s prolific offense propelled it to home games in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament last season. Led by a pair of All-Big 12 First Teamers in Madi Williams and Taylor Robertson, the Sooners dropped 82.6 points per contest, the third-highest in Division I. Jennie Baranczyk’s squad returns eight of the nine players who started a game last year, including Ana Llanusa. Despite an injury-plagued career (including last year’s season-ending ACL tear), the sixth-year guard and former All-Big 12 Second Teamer has tallied 1,269 points (15.3 per game) during her time in Norman. The Sooners also added Iowa State transfer Aubrey Joens, a 42.5% shooter from long distance in 2021-22. Robertson, who led the country with 124 triples, and Joens combined for more three-pointers last year than 234 Division I teams. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot to be excited about if you’re an Oklahoma fan.
But then there’s the other side of the ball. The Sooners allowed 76.9 points per game, the sixth-worst in the country. Part of that relates to Oklahoma’s 81.6 possessions per 40 minutes, the second-fastest pace in Division I. Even adjusting for pace and strength of schedule though, the Sooners still ranked 116th in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating.
Digging a bit deeper into Oklahoma’s defensive woes, 33.7% of its opponents’ field-goal attempts last season occurred at the rim per CBB Analytics. Likely the result of Oklahoma’s undersized lineup, only 14% of Division I teams allowed a greater proportion of such high-percentage shots in 2021-22. Oklahoma has the experience and offensive firepower; shoring up its interior defense might just be the final ingredient needed to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Oklahoma State
2021-22 record: 9-20 (3-15 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: Picked ninth in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Effective field-goal percentage
If you take a look at the Her Hoop Stats page for Oklahoma State last season, the areas for improvement are crystal clear. The Cowgirls ranked dead last in the Big 12 and in the bottom 20 nationally in nearly every statistical category that measures shooting efficiency. That appears to be top of mind for first-year head coach Jacie Hoyt, who said during Big 12 Media Day that she wants her squad to shoot lots of threes and layups. Shot selection is certainly part of the equation, as last year’s Oklahoma State team attempted more two-pointers from outside the paint than inside per CBB Analytics.
However, even when taking higher-percentage shots like corner threes and layups, the Cowgirls still struggled relative to their Big 12 peers. Hoyt addressed that issue and the departure of eight players from last year’s team (including leading scorer Lauren Fields) by signing seven players from the transfer portal. Headlining that group is Naomie Alnatas, a two-time All-Summit League First Teamer who followed Hoyt from her previous coaching position at Kansas City. Alnatas and three other transfers – Lior Garzon (Villanova), Trinitee Jackson (Arkansas State), and Terryn Milton (UT Arlington) – bring a level of efficiency missing from last year’s Cowgirls squad. To be sure, the numbers below were compiled mostly in mid-major conferences, and the Big 12 is an entirely different animal. It’s nonetheless a positive first step in rebuilding what was a lackluster offense.
TCU
2021-22 record: 6-22 (2-16 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: Picked tenth in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Distribution of scoring
Things will look a lot different in Fort Worth this season. Eleven players either graduated or transferred since last spring, including TCU’s all-time leading scorer Lauren Heard. The Horned Frogs’ offense ran through the two-time All-Big 12 First Teamer last season. In addition to leading her team in scoring and assists, her usage rate of 29.7% ranked behind only Oklahoma’s Madi Williams, Baylor’s NaLyssa Smith, and Texas Tech’s Vivian Gray, and Kansas State’s Ayoka Lee among Big 12 players with at least 500 minutes played. During Big 12 Media Day, TCU coach Raegan Pebley acknowledged that her team’s offense became too reliant on Heard at times, making the lives of opposing defenses easier.
“We also feel like we can be a little harder to guard this year,” Pebley said. “We became a little too one-dimensional…we’ve got a lot more pieces, [and] we’ve diversified our offense…On the offensive end, we were just too predictable - where we were gonna go, who was going to be the one to create that score. So, that made us a little easier to gameplan and stop.”
A major part of Pebley’s efforts to diversify the offense came through the transfer portal, where she signed six players during the offseason. Headlining that group are Iowa guard Tomi Taiwo, a career 42% shooter from long distance, and Lucy Ibeh, a 6-foot junior forward who was three total rebounds shy of averaging a double-double with Central Arkansas last year.
Texas
2021-22 record: 29-7 (13-5 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: AP No. 3, picked second in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Points off turnovers per game
During Big 12 Media Day, Texas coach Vic Schaefer stated that he signed 54 points and 27 rebounds from the transfer portal during the offseason. Talk about reloading after losing three starters from last year’s Big 12 championship team! The most notable among those transfers are two-time West Coast Conference Player of the Year Shaylee Gonzales (18.3 points, 4.5 assists, and 2.3 steals per game with BYU) and DePaul transfer Sonya Morris (17.6 points and 3.2 assists per contest). They’re poised to lighten the offensive load for Big 12 Freshman of the Year Rori Harmon and bolster a Texas offense that ranked 40th in points per game.
But Texas’ calling card is its defense. Last season, the Longhorns’ full-court pressure played a key role in causing opponents to commit turnovers on 26.3% of possessions, the sixth-best opponent turnover rate in the nation. Texas translated those miscues into 22.6 points, representing over 30% of its offense and ranking in the top 1% per CBB Analytics. Three impact players from last year’s squad – Joanne Allen-Taylor, Audrey Warren, and Aliyah Matharu – were responsible for nearly half of the Longhorns’ 9.9 steals per contest. So, can the new-look Longhorns replicate the ability of last year’s team to turn offense into defense? Their Final Four chances strongly depend on it.
Texas Tech
2021-22 record: 11-19 (4-14 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: Picked seventh in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
Four-time All-Big 12 First Teamer Vivian Gray has graduated. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for suggesting that Texas Tech’s stat to watch should be related to replacing the output of a player who dropped 20 points per night. But, defense wins championships, right? Well, at the very least, defense can help a team exceed expectations.
That’s certainly the case for Texas Tech, who ranked at or near the bottom of the Big 12 in several defensive categories last season, including opponent field-goal percentage (second to last), opponent points per scoring attempt (last), opponent turnovers per outing (second to last), and defensive rating (second to last). So, it’s no surprise Lady Raiders head coach Krista Gerlich recently talked about how defense has been an area of focus for this year’s squad.
“Defending, we’ve been trying to work on defense so much,” Gerlich said. “We will be primarily man-to-man, but we’ll throw a little bit of zone every once in a while. We really want to defend in the half-court and in transition.”
Last season’s team leaders in steals and blocks (Gray) and defensive rebounds (Taylah Thomas) have graduated, making it difficult for the Lady Raiders to tighten up their defense. The Lady Raiders did add Katie Ferrell, a graduate transfer who ranked in the top 5% nationally in defensive rebounding with UT Arlington. This plus Gerlich and her team’s focus on the defensive end during the offseason could pay dividends this year. If so, things might start looking up in Lubbock.
West Virginia
2021-22 record: 15-15 (7-11 Big 12)
Preseason ranking: Picked eighth in the Big 12
Stat to watch: Turnover rate
West Virginia converted 19.9 opponent turnovers per contest (15th-most in Division I) into 18.6 points per game. Part of what prevented the Mountaineers from a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance was their own difficulty with taking care of the ball. They committed miscues on nearly 20% of their plays, putting them at 207th in the nation.
First-year head coach Dawn Plitzuweit, fresh off a Sweet Sixteen appearance with South Dakota, has expressed her affinity for early offense. That is, pushing tempo to prevent opposing teams from setting up their defense, thereby creating better looks on offense. Of course, this doesn’t work if the fast pace causes sloppiness. The success of this scheme will chiefly be dictated by fifth-year guard Madisen Smith, who received an honorable mention in this year’s Big 12 preseason awards. Smith continuing to make strides in taking better care of the ball (her 22.7% turnover rate last year was a career-best) will play a critical part in determining West Virginia’s prospects in 2022-23.
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