The chaos that has marked college basketball over the past two years - illnesses, canceled games and shuffled lineups - seems to have descended upon the Big Ten in the past two weeks in a series of results that has reshaped the regular season championship race.
Michigan, which had started to see some daylight at the top, dropped consecutive games at Michigan State and Northwestern. Indiana, hampered by the absence of Mackenzie Holmes, lost to Nebraska. It’s hard to call Maryland beating Iowa an upset, given that the Terrapins were the higher-ranked team, but a February win in Iowa City isn’t exactly a gimme, either, especially without the services of Ashley Owusu, who hasn’t played since Feb. 3 due to an ankle injury.
Maryland and Indiana took care of business on Feb. 17 with home wins over Ohio State and Northwestern, respectively (Holmes played 23 minutes against the Wildcats). Since losing to the Buckeyes on Jan. 2, the Terps have won eight straight games, and only two of those by less than double-digit margins.
The upshot is that the Hoosiers sit atop the conference at 11-2, with Maryland at 12-3, Michigan at 11-3, Ohio State at 11-4 and Iowa at 10-4. The top four seeds in the conference tournament get a first-round bye, so finishing in that group is a priority after the wear-and-tear of the regular season. Those five teams all have a chance to be in that top four and all but one are dealing with injuries that would benefit from an extra day of rest. Here’s the scenario for each of those contenders (assuming none of the previously postponed games that haven’t been rescheduled yet get played).
Indiana plays Iowa twice in three days (one is a makeup from a Jan. 23 postponement) and Maryland in what is a difficult finish for the Hoosiers, even with Holmes available. The first game against the Hawkeyes is at home, but the other two are on the road, and Her Hoop Stats is favoring the Terps in the final game. Teri Moren won’t be looking at it this way, but the Hoosiers could lose one of the three and still come out on top, depending on how the other teams do. Two losses would hurt.
Michigan hosts Maryland, Michigan State and travels to Iowa. Her Hoop Stats has the Wolverines as a narrow favorite against the Terrapins, forecasts some revenge against the Spartans and a narrow loss against the Hawkeyes. The presence of Leigha Brown, who hasn’t played since Jan. 31, would be a big boost. Obviously, winning out would give Michigan the best chance and likely remove Maryland and Iowa from contention. But one loss might not ruin their chances, either.
As I’ve written previously, Ohio State has the easiest final week, hosting Wisconsin and traveling to Michigan State. Even winning out might not be enough on its own; the Buckeyes could still need some help to get that first-round bye over Iowa.
Maryland, by contrast, has Michigan and Indiana next week, and has lost to both teams earlier in the season. The Her Hoops Stats preview for the first game, in Ann Arbor, favors the Wolverines, but a home finish against the Hoosiers on a rare Friday night game might decide the conference title. There’s still no official word on whether Owusu will return before the conference tournament.
Iowa plays four games in the next nine days, twice against the Hoosiers and once each against Rutgers and Michigan. Aside from the sheer volume of minutes, the absence of McKenna Warnock has provided an opening for opponents to try and frustrate Caitlin Clark. It’s hard to say that Clark has had poor performances lately, but she has been playing a ton of minutes and shouldering an increased offensive load. In her last six games, both Northwestern and Maryland were able to physically disrupt her game enough to cause double-digit turnovers; that physicality seems to have slightly diminished her effectiveness as a passer. But if anyone can shoot her team into the top four, it’s Clark.
Michigan State’s Other Guard
Nia Clouden rightly gets the headlines, but the Spartans seem to have found a consistent partner in freshman Mathilda Ekh, who has had significant international experience for Sweden before coming to Michigan State. Ekh was the captain of Sweden’s U-18 team and a member of the EuroBasket 2021 tournament squad. Ekh is part of the reason why Michigan State is in sixth place in the Big Ten and 14-11 overall.
In her first season, Ekh is one of three players who has started all 25 of the Spartans’ games and is tied for second on the team in scoring at 12.2 points a game. Her offensive efficiency is pretty remarkable: she averages 1.23 points per scoring attempt, third among all Big Ten freshmen and ahead of some more notable first-year players such as Nebraska’s Alexis Markowski. Her offensive win shares is a healthy 3.2, putting her in the 94th percentile among all players. Ekh is doing all this while logging significant minutes: there are just two freshmen in the conference who average more than 30 minutes a game, and both play for Michigan State (the other is fellow guard DeeDee Hagemann).