Bracket Breakdown: Hot Takes Edition
Your guide to the best upsets and sleepers in the 2024 bracket
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If you’ve been following for a while, you know we’ve rolled out a selection of hot wings takes for each of the last three tournaments, complete with several flavors to choose from.
The hot wings are back for year four with more tournament takes to satiate all your cravings for spice! Unless, that is, you hate spice altogether. If you’re new here, we aren’t interested in bland, so as a rule, none of these takes will line up with the chalk bracket.
This year, we’ve brought on a new chef to add their own flair to the menu! Calvin Wetzel and Dani Bar-Lavi will both be cooking up some wings for the year’s biggest week of wing consumption.
Mild
These takes are for those who want some flavor but have wimpy taste buds. Only slightly less likely than the seedline favorites, these predictions still have a very realistic chance of coming to fruition.
Calvin: No. 3 Oregon State will make the Elite Eight
The Beavers will have to make it out of their pod first, and a second-round matchup against either Nebraska or Texas A&M would not be a cruise by any stretch. But if home court does hold, Oregon State would meet up with No. 2 Notre Dame in the Sweet 16, and that’s where the anti-chalk take comes in.
Like last year when Olivia Miles was ruled out, the Fighting Irish again learned that they will be down a starter for their 2024 NCAA Tournament run after Kylee Watson tore her ACL in the ACC Tournament. While she’s not one of the “big three,” her absence will no doubt be felt in the interior. Watson leads the team in shot blocking at 1.4 a game, and opponents are shooting 12 percentage points worse in the paint with her on the court – a top 3% mark in the country per CBB Analytics.
That could be bad news against Raegan Beers – Oregon State’s post threat who averages nearly 18 points per game.
Dani: No. 3 LSU will make the Final Four
Starting off with what should be an extremely mild take. One might even call this take the barbecue boneless wing of supposed hot takes. I’m projecting that the LSU Tigers, the reigning champions, who added two of the highest-profile transfers in the portal, will return to the Final Four this year.
What makes this take even the slightest bit picante is LSU’s difficult path to Cleveland. Having entered the season as the betting favorite to win the title, Kim Mulkey’s squad consistently fell short of that lofty projection throughout conference play, ending the year as 3 seed. LSU finds itself in Albany 2, dubbed the Region of Death by HHS’ own Dano Mataya, which contains No. 1 seed Iowa, No. 2 seed UCLA, LSU itself, and No. 4 seed Kansas St. Albany 2 is easily the most stacked region in the bracket, containing an astonishing eight of the top 25 teams in Her Hoop Stats rating.
Looking at this absolute gauntlet of a region, I lean towards the coach with championship pedigree and the roster with the eye-popping star power that had everyone impressed way back in November. I truly don’t think we’ve seen the best version of this LSU squad, who, since winning the natty last year, added Aneesah Morrow and Hailey Van Lith to form a ‘Big 3’ around Angel Reese. The ceiling on this roster is sky-high, and I think Mulkey gets the Tigers in top form heading into the tournament. If I’m Iowa or UCLA, that’s a scary prospect.
Medium
Order from this section for picks that have a little extra kick. These takes don’t sting, but they provide enough heat to satisfy your cravings for boldness — or to earn you bragging rights in your office pool.
Calvin: No. 11 Middle Tennessee will beat No. 6 Louisville
Don’t take my word for it – ask former Louisville guard Hailey Van Lith what Middle Tennessee is gonna do to Louisville.
https://x.com/CardsOOC/status/1769578804320579604?s=20
She would know – they did it to her too. The Blue Raiders put a nearly 20-point beatdown on Van Lith’s Cardinals last season with four of the same starters. With the nation’s sixth-leading shot blocker in 6-foot-6 Anastasiia Boldyreva patrolling the paint, the best way to beat Middle Tennessee is from the outside. The Blue Raiders rank in the top three in opponent 2-point percentage but just 297th in 3-point rate allowed.
For a Louisville team that starts three players who have yet to hit from deep on the entire season, that’s not a great draw. Jeff Walz’ squad scored a meager 49 in last year’s meeting, and if the Cardinals can’t hit perimeter shots, they may fall short of 50 again.
Dani: No. 10 UNLV will beat No. 7 Creighton
The seeding numbers on this match-up makes this pick feel a lot more like an upset than it really is. UNLV ends the season as the No. 13 team in HHS Rating, having terrorized the Mountain West, only giving up one loss in all of conference play (and only two on the season). The Lady Rebels had an average winning margin of 21 points per game this season, good for sixth-best in the country. It’s easy to overlook all of this because of strength of schedule, but UNLV plays in one of the more competitive mid-major conferences, with Mountain West ranked 3rd among mid-major conferences in average net rating per CBB Analytics.
Our Lobo’s Look tool has UNLV winning this matchup 56% of the time on a neutral court, and I’d probably set that probability closer to over 60%. UNLV has had a run of absolute dominance to end conference play, and it’s hard for me to see them ending this season by flaming out in the first round.
If you feel like adding extra spice to this one, please feel to reach for some “UNLV could honestly upset UCLA in the second round if they catch them on a bad day” sauce.
Hot
Now we’re getting spicy. No, not 16-over-1 spicy, but spicy enough to get your nose running. True connoisseurs of heat will find their comfort zone here.
Calvin: South Carolina will be the only No. 1 seed to make the Final Four
Picking any one of the non-Gamecock No. 1 seeds to lose in the first two weekends probably isn’t going out on a huge limb. UCLA or LSU beating Iowa? Stanford beating Texas? Ohio State or UConn beating USC? No historic shockers there.
This take only starts to heat up when you put them all together. Only once in the last two decades has there been a Final Four with three non-No. 1 seeds (2016). With parity at seemingly an all-time high, however, 2024 could make it twice. Texas’ region has four other top-15 teams by HHS rating. Iowa may have to get past a Kansas State team that’s beaten them in each of the past two years just to even make it to a potential Elite Eight matchup with UCLA or LSU. USC will face either a March fixture in UConn or a Big Ten regular-season champion hungry to play in the Final Four in its home state in Ohio State, assuming one of those two teams comes out of the bottom half of Portland 3.
Dani: No. 4 Kansas State will beat No. 1 Iowa
Way back on Nov. 16th, Kansas State upset Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in a surprisingly low-scoring game, winning 65-58 after holding Caitlin Clark to 24 points on 9-for-32 shooting from the floor. The Wildcats are the only team all season to hold Iowa beneath 60 points No one else in the country has managed it, not even Nebraska, who has been such a thorn in Iowa’s side these last few months.
Can they stun the world by doing it again? Can Kansas State play spoiler, god-killer in the tournament, denying media darlings Clark and Iowa a spot in the Elite Eight?
Sure, a lot has happened since then. Iowa’s offense has been tested and sharpened by elite defenses. The Hawkeyes’ own defense has come a long way this season too. Hannah Stuelke has emerged as a genuine support star next to Clark. But Kansas State has grown a ton too, reaching as high as second in the AP Poll while missing its star, Ayoka Lee. If the Wildcats can run back their disruptive defense against Iowa while getting solid scoring contributions from Lee and guard Serena Sundell, there’s a path to an upset here.
Fire
Only the bravest of souls dare venture into this section. These takes, while unlikely, have the potential to completely shake up the bracket. If you enjoy the physical pain of pure heat, you’ve come to the right place. If not, then you better have some milk ready.
Calvin: No. 13 Marshall will beat No. 4 Virginia Tech
This one obviously depends on the status of Hokies star Elizabeth Kitley, who missed the ACC Tournament. If she plays, things will get a lot tougher for the Thundering Herd, but they still have a real shot here.
Marshall plays one of the more extreme styles in the country. They lead the nation in pace, they press more often than anyone, and they take nearly 40% of their shots from deep (a top-20 mark). It’s run-and-gun mixed with havoc.
Now, a style like this can also turn into a Hokies blowout if Marshall’s shots aren’t falling and Georgie Amoore is carving up the press. There’s a wide range of outcomes here. But a Marshall win is within that range, so if you want some heartburn later on, take the Herd to advance.
Dani: No. 6 Tennessee will make the Elite 8
If I were you, I would grab a glass of milk because this one is HOT.
Think back to 10 days ago. The Tennessee Lady Volunteers were a breath away from upsetting South Carolina in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Then, Kamilla Cardoso, who entered the game a career 0-for1 from beyond the arc, smashed Tennessee’s dreams with a buzzer-beater three. This near-upset was not an isolated incident either; the Vols also played the Gamecocks close in their matchup on March 3. Tennessee is one of only four teams this season to play South Carolina to single digits, and is the only team other than LSU who has done it twice. They were also only one bucket away from being within single digits of South Carolina a third time, losing by 11 to the Gamecocks in February.
Maybe it’s illogical of me to say “if Tennessee can come within a possession of beating South Carolina, it can definitely beat NC State and Stanford.” But with the tremendous defensive ceiling Tennessee has shown against the best team in the country, and with the presence of Rickea Jackson, one of the best players in college basketball, I think the Vols have what it takes to make a run for the Elite Eight.
Bonus irresponsibly dangerous take
The hottest pepper in the world is the Carolina Reaper, which, according to pepperhead.com, is 200 times hotter than a jalapeño. If you’re foolish enough to make it this far, the Carolina Reaper of takes awaits you.
Calvin: No. 4 Gonzaga will make the Final Four
The last time anyone seeded outside of the top three lines made the Final Four was in 2016, when No. 4 Syracuse and No. 7 Washington made Cinderella runs. Another team from the state of Washington could pull it off this year, as Gonzaga has what it takes to become the first mid-major since Missouri State in 2001 to win its regional. (No, the AAC UConn teams don’t count.)
The Zags took an unexpected loss to Portland in the WCC championship game, but they still sit at No. 7 in the HHS ratings, and over the last 10 games they have a top-three adjusted net rating in the country according to CBB Analytics. With one of the nation’s best centers in Yvonne Ejim anchoring them and loads of skill and shooting around her, the Bulldogs boast a starting lineup that can match up with almost anyone.
Add in the fact that Gonzaga gets to stay in the Pacific Northwest through the Elite Eight, where they would potentially meet up with a Stanford team they've already blown out this year, and you have a recipe for a magical run.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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