Breaking down the transfer portal
What tracking the movement of the 2019 top 100 recruits tells us about the transfer portal
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Since the NCAA approved a rule that allowed one-time transfers immediate eligibility at their new schools in 2021, the transfer portal has dominated the conversation in college sports. Women’s basketball is no exception, especially after Angel Reese transferred to LSU from Maryland and took home the championship trophy in her first year with her new squad.
In the 2022-23 season (from August 2022 to July 2023), 1,221 players entered the transfer portal, according to WBB Blog. Factors such as coaching changes, NIL opportunities and the additional COVID year of eligibility all contributed to the transfer portal frenzy.
But just how often are the top players moving teams? Using ESPN’s top 100 recruits from the 2019 class, Her Hoop Stats analyzed how often players changed schools and which schools were most successful in retaining players.
Of those 100 players, most transferred schools during their college careers; 37 transferred one time, and 22 changed schools twice.
This class is the second to last with extra eligibility from the pandemic. Many of these top-100 recruits took advantage of the opportunity for a fifth year—74% are still playing this season.
Players who transferred are more likely to still be in school, taking advantage of extra eligibility from the COVID-19 year or injuries. Eighty-nine percent of players who switched schools are still in college compared to 51% of players who stayed with the same program.
One player who bucks the trend is Kierstan Bell, who transferred from Ohio State to Florida Gulf Coast after her freshman year. Bell played two seasons with the Eagles before declaring for the WNBA draft. While many players in the 2019 class are still chasing an NCAA title, Bell is already a two-time WNBA champion with the Las Vegas Aces.
The top four players in the class, Haley Jones, Jordan Horston, Aliyah Boston and Zia Cooke, all remained with the team they originally committed to.
South Carolina and Stanford had the first and second-ranked classes in the country, respectively, each with four highly rated prospects. The two programs were the only ones with four 2019 recruits that retained them for all four years. The Cardinal won the NCAA championship in 2021 and the Gamecocks did so in 2022 with those players.
In contrast, Duke, USC and Mississippi State all had three or more top 100 recruits from the 2019 class. None of those players remain with the team they originally committed to.
While all three of these programs named new head coaches since 2019, only three of the 10 players entered the transfer portal the same season as a coaching change.
Only 13 of the 59 transfers entered the portal the same offseason that their original school underwent a coaching change.
Another factor in many players’ decisions to enter the transfer portal is the extra year of eligibility or the “COVID year.”
Nine players transferred for the first time in 2023 after completing a full four years at the school they originally committed to. Of the 20 players who have transferred twice, 14 were graduate transfers, allowing them to play immediately rather than waiting a year because of their postgraduate status.
The freshmen class of 2020 is the last with the opportunity to spend an extra year in college, and it is unclear how the end of extra eligibility will affect the transfer portal. But based on data from the 2019 class, the transfer portal will still see plenty of players in years to come, especially after a December NCAA rule change that allows multi-time transfers to compete immediately in the 2024-25 school year.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Good stuff. I wonder how that compares to the class of 2014, say. And COVID changed a lot, so it will be interesting to see how the class of 2022 plays out.
Is data available on how the Top 100 from recent years produced ? Were their teams winners in conference or March Madness? Wonder how much rankings would change looking back upon careers.