The Weekly Roundup: Stewie Stuffs the Stat Sheet, the Sun’s Superb Offensive Rebounding, and Home-Court Advantage Returns?
Analyzing the WNBA’s intriguing subplots through week 3
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Before diving into the usual weekly roundup agenda, I would like to communicate my thoughts on the recent mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo, New York. I understand that some may view this as inappropriately mixing politics and sports, but I can’t stop thinking about the 31 people killed. I can’t stop thinking about their grieving families. And I can’t stop thinking about the continued government inaction to address the gun violence issue. Mass casualty event involving a gun occurs, calls for new gun control measures in response ensue, there’s a legislative impasse, and calls for legislative action dissipate - this is the cycle we’ve seen after Columbine, Sandy Hook, Orlando, Parkland, Las Vegas, and countless other mass shooting events in the United States. It’s a cycle that needs to be broken. In the words of Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr, we can’t get numb to this. Common-sense gun control measures exist that are supported by strong majorities of Americans (e.g., expanded background checks and reinstating the assault weapons ban). Please heed the advice of Natasha Cloud and contact your local and federal representatives to help reduce the likelihood that senseless tragedies like these will occur in the future.
Her Hoop Stats Power Rankings
We are now over three weeks into the WNBA season, and the league’s pecking order has begun to take form. Las Vegas and Connecticut have established themselves as the two best teams heading into their pair of matchups this week. The Aces carry into these marquee matchups a six-game winning streak and an offensive rating of 110.1, tops in the league. Meanwhile, Connecticut, one of the W’s best defenses, allows just 91.4 points per 100 possessions. Something’s gotta give.
The big mystery continues to be Atlanta. On the heels of a convincing 81-54 win versus Phoenix and sitting at 5-3, it increasingly seems like the Dream are in the upper half of the W’s pecking order. However, their league-worst 19.6 turnovers per contest are a cause for concern. That’s just not going to cut it against the cream of the league’s crop.
And then there’s the 1-7 New York Liberty. Oh boy, what can I say? Well, at least Han Xu is playing well, right?
What about the rest of the league? Check out the Her Hoop Stats team’s power rankings below, which, as always, are based on the criterion of who would win in a hypothetical neutral-court matchup today.
Player of the Week: Breanna Stewart
No Sue Bird. No Ezi Magbegor. No Stephanie Talbot. No Mercedes Russell. No problem? Well, not exactly, but it sure makes life easier when you have a superstar like Breanna Stewart so adept at impacting both ends of the floor. She can score in a multitude of ways - the step-back three, the catch-and-shoot three, the mid-range jumper, and driving to the hoop and finishing over someone a half-foot taller than her. On the defensive end, Stewart has been an absolute nightmare for opposing teams, leading the league with 3.0 steals per contest and ranking third in defensive win shares per 40 minutes. Stewie’s arsenal of skills was on full display this weekend, as she demonstrated why she’s the most complete player in the world.
The 2018 MVP averaged 22.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks while leading a short-handed Storm squad to a pair of wins over New York. In Seattle’s 79-71 overtime win versus the Liberty on Friday night, Stewart dropped 31 points, including 15 in the fourth quarter and overtime. Two days later, she stuffed the stat sheet to the tune of 14 points, eight rebounds, five assists, six steals, and two blocks in just 23 minutes of action, nearly recording the second 5x5 game in league history (i.e., accumulating at least five points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks). Stewart did become the fourth player in WNBA history with at least 10 points, eight rebounds, six steals, five assists, and two blocks in a game.
Stat of the Week: Connecticut’s dominance on the offensive glass
Not unlike the mid-range jumper, offensive rebounding has become a lost art in the WNBA. In the league’s first five years, teams pulled in roughly one-third of all rebounding opportunities on the offensive glass. That figure has since plummeted to less than 25% in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Teams are increasingly willing to sacrifice the potential for second-chance points to protect against the fast break.
Yet, the Connecticut Sun is bucking this trend with a mind-boggling 38.7% offensive rebounding rate this season; Indiana is a distant second at 30.2%. It’s a sign of the times that no team has finished a season with an offensive rebounding rate north of 35% in over a decade (2010 Seattle Storm). If the season ended today, Connecticut’s offensive rebounding rate would rank second all-time behind the 2007 Sacramento Monarchs, a squad that featured rebounding machine Rebekkah Brunson. The Sun have converted all of these extra opportunities into 14.4 second-chance points per game, tied with Minnesota for the league lead.
Is such success on the offensive glass an aberration, an anomaly resulting from a small sample size (eight games)? Yes and no. The Sun led the WNBA in offensive rebounding rate in three of the past four seasons, but their highest rate in that period was 31.3%. However, it’s no fluke that a franchise with Brionna Jones and Jonquel Jones stands out from the rest of the league in terms of offensive rebounding prowess. Brionna currently leads the league with 3.3 offensive boards per contest and ranked second and third in 2021 and 2020, respectively, while Jonquel led the W in 2017 and 2019. So while it’s unrealistic to expect Connecticut to maintain its astronomical 39% rebounding rate throughout a 36-game season, don’t expect them to relinquish the league lead anytime soon.
The return of home-court advantage?
Anyone who knows me understands that I am interested in the concept of home-court advantage. The idea that playing in a different arena (with the same court dimensions) combined with a hostile crowd has a significant impact on performance has always fascinated me. I’m not here to delve into the psychology of why this phenomenon exists - my single undergraduate psychology course doesn’t quite make me an expert in the field. Rather, I’m here to explore the extent to which home-court advantage exists in the WNBA.
Last season, home-court advantage dropped to an all-time low, with home teams outscoring their opponents by 0.6 points per 100 possessions. That’s a far cry from the long-term (1997-2019) average home net margin of 4.1 points per 100 possessions. Maybe this was just random fluctuation. Look at the period 2006-2008, when the average home net margin started at 4.5 in 2006, plummeted to 1.4 in 2007, and jumped back up to 3.8 in 2008. Another possible explanation is last season’s record-low attendance due to COVID-19 restrictions and fans’ hesitation to attend games because of the pandemic. Per Across the Timeline, the WNBA averaged 2,388 fans per regular-season game in 2021, just over one-third more than 2019’s per game average of 6,528 fans (there were no home games in 2020).
Of course, attendance and home-court advantage are not perfectly correlated. Attendance in the aforementioned 2007 season actually increased over 2006. Perhaps it’s a case of diminishing returns, where attendance above a certain threshold has less of an impact on home-court advantage. Whatever the exact relationship may be, it’s too much of a coincidence that the season with (by far) the lowest attendance figures also produced (by far) the smallest home-court advantage.
How are things looking this season? Average net home margin has jumped to 3.1 points per 100 possessions. To be sure, there is some volatility in this figure so early in the season. For example, this season’s average net home margin was 1.8 before Sunday’s slate of games that included home blowouts by Atlanta and Seattle. It’s still a sizable jump over last season whichever way you slice it, yet still comfortably below the 1997-2019 average of 4.1. Relatedly, average attendance has more than doubled since last season (4,959 versus 2,388), as fans begin to return to arenas.
So, has home-court advantage returned to the WNBA? Yes, to a degree. Early returns strongly suggest that average home net margin will be higher than last year’s record low; however, the jury is still out on whether this season will see a full reversion to historic norms.
WNBA schedule this week (All times Eastern)
Here is a full listing of this week’s games, start times, and where you can catch the action.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
The Her Hoop Stats team released the following podcast content:
In the latest episode of Courtside, Gabe Ibrahim and Christy Winters Scott discussed Indiana’s coaching change, Dallas’ strong start, and how Las Vegas became the WNBA’s best team.
On Dice it Up, Dano Mataya and Ice Young spoke with Seton Hall coach Tony Bozzella about his team’s WNIT championship appearance last season, the success of the Big East, and the impact of the transfer protocol.
Robert Mummery broke down film of Atlanta’s Kristy Wallace, evaluated her strengths and weaknesses, and chronicled her basketball journey from Australia to the WNBA.
Richard Cohen explored Rhyne Howard’s wildly successful rookie campaign, how Courtney Williams can improve her offensive efficiency, and much more in his weekly WNBA Dissected column.
Rhyne Howard is 11th in the league in scoring; NaLyssa Smith is five rebounds shy of averaging a double-double, and Shakira Austin ranks eighth in defensive win shares. Aneela Khan revealed how this year’s rookie class has made quite the splash.
Despite a few proverbial bumps in the road along the way, Li Yueru arrived in Chicago and the Sky activated the 6-foot-7 Chinese national team star last week. Robert Mummery broke down film of her games on the international stage and offered his thoughts on her strengths and weaknesses.
Other recommended content
One of the objectives of Title IX was to close the gender gap in college athletics by providing equitable opportunities. However, a USA Today investigation recently revealed how several universities are exploiting Department of Education reporting requirements to give off the impression of Title IX compliance.
A Sunday Telegraph investigation revealed details of Liz Cambage’s pre-Olympic outburst last summer in a closed-door practice against Nigeria that ended her career with the Australian national team. The full investigation is here, and a summary is here.
For Global Sport Matters, Katie Lever described what constitutes abusive coaching and why it’s so pervasive in college athletics.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton described the life of WNBA players on hardship deals through the recent experience of Seattle guard Kiana Williams.
Reigning Sixth Woman of the Year Kelsey Plum recently had a few choice words about coming off the bench last season. The Athletic’s Tashan Reed described Plum's successful transition into the starting lineup this year.
For The Next, Jackie Powell chronicled New York’s dilemma of waiting for AD to complete her recovery from the effects of long COVID or cutting ties in an effort to turn its season around.
The Seattle Times’ Percy Allen recounted the New York Liberty’s pursuit of Breanna Stewart this past offseason and what impact that could have when Stewie again enters free agency after this season.
Trivia question of the week
Who is the highest-ranked player on the WNBA career points list to have never won a WNBA championship?
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Is answer to trivia Tina Charles?
Would it be possible to include the answer to last week’s trivia question each week?