Brionna Jones: Offseason Opportunities
Discussing possible landing spots for Brionna Jones in 2023
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The Connecticut Sun have many things to address this offseason, but the most significant is Brionna Jones. The 2021 Most Improved Player and 2022 Sixth Player of the Year will be an unrestricted free agent heading into 2023. The Sun are not eligible to extend the core qualifying offer to Jones, as the core designation currently belongs to her teammate, Jonquel Jones.
Connecticut is projected to have $436,313 in cap space (effectively starting at $187,173 with cap holds to sign at least five players). Bringing back Jones might be complicated due to their cap hold-inclusive space. If the Sun offered her a contract with a 2023 starting salary of $185,000, they would have to fill out the team through minimum deals. Unless the team were to trade away one of the players currently under contract for 2023 (Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, Jasmine Thomas, DiJonai Carrington or Nia Clouden), the most likely pathway for filling the rest of the roster would be minimum contracts each worth $62,285 for those with less than 3 years of experience. Now, perhaps Connecticut could trade or cut Carrington and Clouden considering they are on non-guaranteed rookie scale deals. The issue with that is they already are making close to the minimum, and factoring the cap holds, clears minimal space. Most of the team would still have to be made up of the cheaper, $62,285 slots.
Starting on January 1, 2023, teams can extend qualifying offers. Connecticut would most likely extend a restricted qualifying offer to Natisha Hiedeman, especially as they would have the space to. When it comes to re-signing Jones, they will have to wait a bit. Contracts can be negotiated starting the 15th, but only signed starting February 1st. Jones’ base salary for 2022 was $120,000. If Hiedeman accepts the qualifying offer and Jones were to accept a 25% increase of $150,000 instead of $185,000, Connecticut would be able to retain two key members from 2022. The Sun would also have the cap space to sign their 2023 first-round pick, whose starting salary would only be $68,295. However, one concern would be if they have enough cap space to retain Courtney Williams. Connecticut signed her in 2022 for one year at $103,000. But, the Sun would require a pay cut from Williams if they want to keep her on the roster in 2023. Her 2022 salary was already below what Williams’ talent could command. Now, the Sun would be asking her to take another pay cut. Although it would help Connecticut bring back most of its core, would Williams want to stay in Connecticut and take a pay cut with better financial opportunities elsewhere in the W and overseas? There is also the question of whether Jones would accept that offer knowing she could receive more on the open market. Teams that have cap space may be willing to pay a premium to land a quality player like Jones, creating more issues for the Sun in terms of keeping Jones in Uncasville.
The Sun should explore every opportunity to try and run it back this season. They have the best combined regular season record in the W over the past two seasons and led the league in net rating (margin of victory per 100 possessions) in each of those two seasons. Connecticut has been in the Finals twice in the last four years. In 2019, although the roster was slightly different, the Sun still had key players in the rotation such as Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and Williams. That team pushed the Washington Mystics to five games. Last season, the Sun managed to get one game over the eventual champion Aces, and they lost Game 1 by only three points. They could do minor shake-ups, but nothing too exciting due to cap space. Although having Jonquel Jones and Thomas will make the Sun competitive, not having Brionna Jones may make it difficult to replicate their successes in 2022.
Brionna Jones is someone that teams would definitely want to acquire, and here are some teams that I think make sense for both sides:
Washington
If you’ve followed my previous posts, Washington is a team that has appeared in multiple scenarios for other players. I promise you that I am not an undercover Mystics fan, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention one of the crucial reasons why Washington makes sense: being close to home. Brionna Jones was born and raised in Maryland and played college ball for her home state Terrapins. The Mystics had a chance at Jones in 2017 but decided to draft her college teammate, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough.
Here are some things that make Washington an attractive destination for Jones:
Cap Space: The Mystics are projected to have $572,466 in cap space (effectively starting at $261,041 with cap holds to sign at least six players). This is enough for a regular maximum spot of $202,154 or a supermax spot of $234,936 if the Mystics wanted to look into a sign and trade. The standard max would be Jones’ applicable maximum if she signs directly with Washington.
Established Players: Washington currently has two-time MVP Elena Delle Donne under contract for 2023. Also under contract are Ariel Atkins and Natasha Cloud who were part of the WNBA All-Defensive First Team. Shakira Austin made the 2022 All-Rookie Team and was one of the league’s best defenders in 2022. Additionally, the team has Myisha Hines-Allen who was a part of the 2019 championship squad. This team has the makings of a possible championship-winning squad in 2023.
2023 WNBA Lottery Pick: As part of the trade with Atlanta in May, the Mystics received the right to swap first-round picks with the pick Atlanta acquired from Los Angeles. The resulting pick will be top-four, and could even be first overall.
With the acquisition of Jones, the Mystics would bolster their interior presence. Washington ranked sixth in offensive rebounding and eighth in free-throw trips and 2-pointers attempted. Jones excelled in those categories, ranking second in offensive rebounds, seventh in free throws made and attempted, fifth in 2-pointers made, and 10th in 2-pointers attempted.
Another factor to consider for Washington’s interior presence involves their 2023 pick swap. As previously mentioned, there is a possibility that this pick is first overall. Now, Washington has shown us recently that they are not afraid of trading away the top pick, as that is how they moved down to the third spot to select Austin. But, the projected top pick is South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston, who at 6-foot-5 is considered to be a game-changing center. One may claim with Austin and Jones, the Mystics don’t need another center. But, does Washington want to make the mistake of drafting for a positional fit versus best available? If the Mystics get the opportunity to draft Boston, they would have a loaded frontcourt with Jones, Austin, Boston, and Delle Donne. If the Mystics’ pick isn’t first overall, the franchise would still have a top-four pick to possibly draft a guard or wing like Stanford’s Haley Jones or Maryland’s Diamond Miller (what a treat it would be for Terrapins fans to have Miller and Jones in Washington).
If the Mystics brought in Jones with a starting salary at the max, the rest of their roster would likely come from minimum deals. But, with the level of talent on the team, the Mystics could find players willing to play on a veteran minimum deal. There’s also the possibility of re-signing Jones’ college teammate, Walker-Kimbrough. Her most recent salary was the veterans’ minimum, so it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see her take another one, especially if it means bringing Jones in. Ultimately, Washington has a lot of things going for them. Elena Delle Donne ended up in Washington via a trade to play closer to her family in Delaware. She was able to get a championship out of it. Could the same outcome await Jones in Washington?
Los Angeles
The Sparks are a team looking for a new direction after their 2022 campaign. After making moves to land Chennedy Carter and Liz Cambage, some thought the Sparks could be a contending team. However, their season became mired in controversy due to a series of events that included the dismissal of Derek Fisher as coach and general manager, Cambage’s decision to leave the Sparks midseason, and interim coach Fred Williams’ decision to limit Carter’s playing time.
Considering the above, what is there to like about Los Angeles if you are Jones?
Cap Space: The Sparks are projected to have $996,101 in cap space (effectively starting at $684,676 with cap holds to fill at least six roster spots). This is enough for Los Angeles to acquire Jones for up to her applicable maximum while retaining key free agents Nneka Ogwumike, Brittney Sykes, and Chiney Ogwumike
Fresh Start: The Sparks are currently looking for a new head coach and general manager to create a new identity for the team. For any unrestricted free agent looking to be a part of building something new, Los Angeles offers that chance in the City of Angels.
Something that the Sparks struggled with in 2022 was rebounding. Los Angeles was tenth in offensive rebounds and last in defensive and total rebounds. With a player like Cambage, some would have expected the Sparks to perform better in that area. Cambage’s 6.4 rebounds per game ranked 17th in the W, and it was the first season since her rookie year that she ranked outside of the top 10 in rebounds per game. The remaining bulk of Los Angeles’ rebounding came from Nneka and Chiney Ogwumike at 6.6 and 5.5 rebounds per game, respectively. When given the minutes, Jones has shown she can be a rebounding force. In 2021 when she started in all of her games, Jones averaged 30.6 minutes and ranked ninth in total rebounds that season. Also, she has ranked in the top 3 in offensive rebounds per game in each of her last three seasons. Thus, she would benefit the Sparks greatly.
Another reason Jones’ rebounding would be important involves the Sparks’ struggles from the field. Los Angeles shot 48.8% on 2-pointers, which ranked eighth in the W. But, the Sparks ranked second in total 2-pointers attempted, meaning the Sparks didn’t convert as well as other teams that shot fewer two-pointers. The Sparks’ 3-point shooting was even worse, as they ranked last from beyond the arc. Poor shooting percentages mean a lot of misses. What better way to make up for that than by having one of the league’s best offensive rebounders? Jones’ ability to clean up the glass on the offensive end could provide the Sparks with more scoring opportunities. Also, Jones was fifth in 2-pointers made and 10th in 2-point field goal percentage last season (57.9%). With Jones in the paint on offense, the Sparks would have someone who could snag crucial rebounds and is efficient enough to put those shots back in.
If Jones, Nneka Ogwumike, and Sykes all signed for the regular maximum of $202,154 or less, the Sparks would have another regular maximum slot available. The Sparks could earmark this money toward bringing in a shooter to address the team’s shooting woes. There are shooters on the restricted and unrestricted free agency market that could make sense. I recently discussed how teams could look to spend money to acquire Marina Mabrey. I decided to leave the Sparks out of that due to the way the Sparks currently fare. In this scenario, if Ogwumike and Sykes are retained and the team acquires Brionna Jones, that could be a good pitch for Mabrey and vice versa for Jones (acquiring Mabrey first). Mabrey is also an underrated playmaker, which could address the gap left by the potential departure of Jordin Canada. Some other shooters the Sparks could pursue are Sophie Cunningham and Sami Whitcomb (although Phoenix would look to match Cunningham’s offer sheets).
Bringing in Jones not only helps the Sparks address a glaring issue but could help them drastically improve their pitch to other free agents. If Los Angeles’ key free agents are willing to buy in and sign deals that would still keep them well-paid, the Sparks could be back in business.
Chicago Sky
The Sky are somewhat in limbo regarding what their plans will be for the offseason. Most of their 2022 rotation are unrestricted free agents: Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot, Emma Meesseman, Allie Quigley, and Azurá Stevens. But the main cause of uncertainty is whether Parker, Vandersloot, Meesseman, and Quigley will even be in the W next season. Possible retirements and WNBA Prioritization are the major factors holding up a decision on playing in the league.
Nonetheless, there are things to like about Chicago. Per my previous offseason opportunities article on Breanna Stewart, the things to like about the Sky were:
Cap Space: The Sky are projected to have $931,801 in cap space (effectively starting at $620,376 with cap holds to fill at least six roster spots). If Parker, Vandersloot, Meesseman, and Quigley end up not playing, Chicago would have max slots to go around.
Reserved Qualifying Offer: Rebekah Gardner is eligible to receive the reserved qualifying offer, giving Chicago exclusive negotiating rights (this is because she played her first season on a one-year deal, giving her less than four years of experience).
One More Year: Kahleah Copper’s current deal expires at the end of 2023. However, Chicago will need to make moves to entice Copper to extend her contract or re-sign after her deal expires.
Draft Picks: Through the Diamond DeShields sign-and-trade back in February, Chicago was able to acquire Phoenix’s 2023 first-round pick, which will be fifth overall. The Sky have flexibility in determining what they want to do with that pick.
Coach/GM under Contract: James Wade signed a contract extension in August 2022, which will keep him as the head coach and GM of Chicago through 2025. If Jones is looking for something where the team’s leadership is in place for the foreseeable future, Chicago would make sense.
One particularly interesting scenario is if Meesseman opts out of 2023. If Parker, Vandersloot, Quigley, and Stevens came back at their 2022 salary and Gardner accepted the reserved qualifying offer, Chicago would have a final roster slot for a regular maximum contract. Although Gardner’s reserved qualifying offer would be $62,285 and Chicago would have exclusive negotiating rights, the Sky might be willing to pay Gardner a bit more to reward her efforts. This would reduce the cap space the team has, and the final spot would be under the regular maximum. But if the Sky could bring in Jones, they would essentially have their 2022 rotation, with Jones swapped for Meesseman. Chicago should remain in the upper echelon of teams in the W.
In losing Meesseman, the Sky would miss out on an underrated playmaker who can occasionally stretch the floor. But, statistically, Chicago’s offense was not predicated on 3-point shooting. Although they had competent shooters on the floor, the Sky were actually eighth in total 3-pointers attempted last season. Additionally, Jones was a better offensive rebounder than Meesseman, and the Sky were only eighth in offensive rebounds this past season. This means Chicago missed out on second-chance scoring opportunities. The Sky led the league in points per scoring attempt in 2022. So, if the team can harness most of its scoring prowess, getting more chances through Jones’ offensive rebounding could help boost their scoring output.
There is another scenario that Chicago has to consider, and that is one where Parker, Vandersloot, Quigley, Meesseman, and possibly Stevens do not return for 2023. If that occurs, a max spot for Jones would definitely be in play, especially if it means building a competitive team and increasing the chance of keeping Copper in Chicago. In the Gabby Williams article, Chicago was one of the teams I suggested as a possibility if their key players depart. One of the reasons for that is because Williams was one of the best at forcing turnovers in 2022, ranking fifth in total steals. Forcing turnovers is one way to generate scoring opportunities through additional possessions. Offensive rebounding is another way of creating scoring opportunities. With Jones and Williams in the Windy City, the Sky would have two players that create extra scoring opportunities on both ends of the floor. If players such as Parker, Meesseman, Vandersloot, and Quigley leave, it would negatively affect Chicago’s scoring output. Thus, Chicago would need to get players who can create more scoring opportunities. Brionna Jones and Gabby Williams would be tailor-made for that role.
Atlanta
The Dream are looking for ways to build upon their 2022 campaign. Fifth in defensive rating and points allowed, Atlanta impressed many. But, they also missed the playoffs. The acquisition of someone like Brionna Jones could be something that the Dream need to get to the next level.
Here are the things to like about Atlanta:
Cap Space: The Dream are projected to have $942,916 in cap space (effectively starting at $631,491 with cap holds to sign at least six players). Atlanta would have the cap space to offer a maximum deal to Jones while adding other quality talent.
Star on the Rise: Before the draft, Atlanta traded up to select Rhyne Howard with the first pick. Since then, Howard won the Rookie of the Year Award and made the All-Star team. Her 16.2 points per game ranked 12th in the W. Howard, who is arguably the cornerstone of Atlanta’s future, will look to build on her strong rookie season.
Reputable Front Office: At the helm for Atlanta is Dan Padover. For those unfamiliar with him, Padover is a two-time WNBA Basketball Executive of the Year. During his time in Las Vegas, Padover acquired 2022 WNBA Finals MVP Chelsea Gray and Riquna Williams, who also had a terrific Finals showing. Padover left Vegas in 2021 to lead the Dream. Having a person in the front office with a history of making successful moves is always a positive.
Draft Picks: Although in trading up to select Rhyne Howard, the Washington Mystics have the right to swap with the pick Atlanta acquired from Los Angeles, the Dream’s own 2023 draft pick is in the lottery. This means that Atlanta has a chance for their own pick to be first overall. If it isn’t, the Dream would still have options on what to do with the pick.
Based on the way the Dream are currently constructed, Cheyenne Parker is the only center that Atlanta has under contract for 2023. Signing Jones to shore up the frontcourt isn’t a terrible idea. In fact, Atlanta could look into placing Jones as the starting center and Parker as the power forward (as when Jones was a consistent starter, at times she started at center and Jonquel Jones at the power forward although she is taller). To further experiment, Atlanta could have Jones be the primary interior focus on offense and Parker be the primary interior defender. The reason for this is that Parker has historically been the better shot-blocker. Also, the Dream were 10th in total blocks in 2022, even with Parker’s presence.
But, what if the franchise wanted to bolster the frontcourt one step further? Considering the franchise has cap space to spend, Atlanta could look to sign Azurá Stevens from Chicago. In less minutes, Stevens averaged more blocks than Parker. Her 1.1 blocks per game ranked ninth in 2022. Stevens has also displayed what she could do defensively when starting. In the eight games she started in 2022, Stevens averaged 1.6 blocks. If that was her average for the season it would have ranked third in the W. With Jones and Stevens, Atlanta would have a top-tier rebounder and shot-blocker. In addition to Stevens’ height advantage over Parker, she is also a better 3-point shooter. In 2022, Stevens shot a respectable 36% from beyond the arc (Parker shot 21.8%). That could present situations on offense where Atlanta has Howard and Stevens on the perimeter, allowing Jones to dominate on the interior.
With a frontcourt of Jones and Stevens or Jones and Parker, Atlanta could address multiple issues. Atlanta was ninth in free-throw trips and 11th in 2-point field goal percentage. With the proposed idea of Jones inside and Stevens on the perimeter, Atlanta would have a player who excelled at getting to the line and knocking down 2-pointers in an advantageous position. All that would be missing to complete the puzzle for Atlanta is an established point guard. This is where the Dream could see if Courtney Vandersloot would be willing to sign in Atlanta. Another idea that has been discussed amongst W Twitter is the possibility of trading for Skylar Diggins-Smith. One hurdle for Atlanta would be the fact that she would only have one year left on her deal. But, if the Dream front office receives any indication that Diggins-Smith would be willing to extend after arriving, maybe they would see if they have assets that Phoenix wants and the Dream are willing to part with.
Ultimately Jones would be a key piece in retooling the Dream roster, possibly putting Atlanta on an upward swing for the next few years. Padover planted the seeds for a WNBA champion in Las Vegas. Could Atlanta be next?
Conclusion:
Brionna Jones’ continued improvement and talent are things that would help several teams become a title contender. The ultimate question is where? If Connecticut is able to retain her, it would be huge. But, never ignore the power of a better paycheck and a change of scenery.
For other “Offseason Opportunities”, check them out by clicking on the name mentioned: Breanna Stewart, Gabby Williams, Marina Mabrey
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