Building the all-analytics Team USA roster

What if Team USA was only determined by the best players by the numbers in 2024? Let's give it a try

Photo by Chris Poss

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Because every single topic regarding women’s basketball this year has needed to be about Caitlin Clark, it shouldn’t be surprising that her absence from the Team USA roster caused quite a stir. The selection committee was probably too busy trying to build the best basketball team on earth rather than fretting over viewership numbers, which seems to be the main argument from those who wanted her on the team. But it’s worth asking: By the actual numbers, should she have been on the team? If we were building Team USA solely on who has played the best by the analytical numbers during the beginning stage of the WNBA season, who would be there?  

Well, Clark’s play through 15 games has been worth 0.3 win shares, which ranks in the 32nd percentile and her win shares per 40 minutes is in the 18th percentile. Even if we subtract the more team-impacted defensive part of the stat, she still stands in the 36th percentile of offensive win shares per 40 minutes at 0.03.  

For context, the league’s best player A’ja Wilson has 3.1 win shares and 0.24 win shares per 40 minutes offensively. 

Why is that? Efficiency and turnovers. After a strong game against Chicago, Clark bumped her field-goal percentage up to 38.3%, ranking in the 34th percentile. Her 3-point percentage of 32.8% is a shade below average and she has the worst turnover per game mark in the WNBA. 

That isn’t to say that her start to the year, by rookie standards, has been a disaster. She’s creating assists at a high rate (95th percentile assist percentage) and she’s a touch above average overall in effective field-goal percentage – a stat that weighs for 3-point shots and has made free throws at a 90% clip.  But, as you will see from our all-analytics Team USA, right now there is nothing on paper to suggest Clark should be booting more accomplished players off Team USA. She’ll get there someday, folks. Give it time. 

Anyway, before we get to the data-driven team, we should also address another member of the All Hurt Feelings Club, which includes Arike Ogunbowale. She revealed on Shannon Sharpe’s podcast that she took her name out of the running for Team USA and pointed to “politics.” While she is a prolific scorer in terms of total points per game, her efficiency this year has taken a step backward. 

That may very well be due to the absences of Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard but her 41.3% effective field-goal percentage sits in the 19th percentile, down from 36th percentile last year. By offensive win shares per 40 minutes, she’s above average (72nd percentile) but it takes a lot of shots to get there and the fact that she has never cleared the 50th percentile in field-goal percentage and has ranked below the 10th percentile in turnovers for two straight years makes it tough to argue that she belongs. 

By sheer talent, celebrity and entertainment value of their playing styles, Clark and Ogunbowale would be easy picks. For our stats-y Team USA, they don’t make the cut. So let’s have a look at who did…. 

(Important reminder: This group is based on 2024 stats only. Players like Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young would be deserving if we included their career numbers and players like Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and Chelsea Gray are legends who belong on the actual squad. Players aren’t selected off one stat, rather an accumulation of impact and efficiency.)

* = Team USA member

*A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

Key stats: No. 1 in the WNBA in win shares (3.1), 95th percentile in points per play, 99th percentile in rebounding percentage (31.3%), 99th percentile in blocks per game 

You might need a cigarette after looking at A’ja Wilson’s statistics this year. Not only is she scoring the most points in the WNBA per game (28.0) but doing it with a 78th percentile effective field-goal percentage. That’s not easy to do when the team has been so reliant on her due to the absence of Chelsea Gray and overall lack of depth on the Aces roster this season. When you add in the defensive numbers and exceptional free-throw shooting (85.6%), Wilson is having one of the best starts to a season of all time. She’s even nailed 7-for-16 from 3-point land. 

*Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty

Key stats: 2.7 win shares (97th percentile), 55.0% 2-point percentage (84th), 25.1% defensive rebounding percentage (91st) 

Few players in the history of the game have been more consistently excellent across the board than Stewart. Since 2016 she has never ranked below the 95th percentile in win shares. It’s easy to see that she’s an elite scorer and rebounder, but Stewie adds to those numbers with elite marks in assists, steals and blocks per game relative to her position and she’s been an unbelievable free-throw shooter at 91.4% this year. The only knock is her dreadful 3-point shooting (17.5%), though that will absolutely improve soon as she hovers around 35% for her career. If she was shooting her career 3-point average, Stewart’s Her Hoop Stats page would have a case for being the most impressive in the entire league in 2024.  

*Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Key stats: 2.7 win shares (97th percentile), 47.1% field-goal percentage (75th), 10.5 rebounds per game (98th percentile), both block and steal per game stats above 90th percentile 

MVPhee is real, friends. After a breakout 2023 season that saw her receive MVP votes, Collier is putting up nearly identical numbers this year except with a little more playmaking prowess with a career high in assists at 3.6 per game (likely because her team is vastly improved) and with more defensive impact than ever (No. 1 in defensive win shares). The Lynx star is such a consistent and complete player that it’s easy to take her excellence for granted. 

Kayla McBride, Minnesota Lynx

Key stats: 2.4 win shares, 49.5% 3-point percentage (best in the WNBA), 92.5% free-throw percentage

What if I told you that Kayla McBride’s stat page suggests she should be an MVP candidate? The veteran sniper has always been underrated at times through her career but this season she’s been on a heater for the ages. McBride’s effective field-goal percentage is in the 98th percentile, points per play is in the 99th percentile (1.22), and she’s added 4.5 assists per 40 minutes (71st percentile). Is this just small sample size magic? Well, she’s likely to miss a few more 3-pointers as the season goes along, but the Lynx’s ability to move the basketball and spread the floor appears to be fitting McBride brilliantly and that isn’t going to change any time soon.  

Brionna Jones, Connecticut Sun

Key stats: 2.2 win shares (95th percentile), 0.28 win shares per 40 minutes (99th), 5.3% turnover percentage (99th percentile)  

Jones is a true analytics darling. Her game isn’t flashy and you won’t see her in State Farm commercials, but her scoring efficiency is as good as anyone in the game. She is shooting 57.1% from the field this year and produces 22.0 points per 40 minutes (91st percentile). Protecting the basketball (0.6 turnovers per game) is another important area of Jones’ game that goes under the radar. The only knock on her versus our other stars might be that she doesn’t play as many minutes (24.4 per game) and her impact in other statistical areas like rebounding and free-throw shooting isn’t as strong as players like Stewart or Wilson. In the most important area, scoring, there are few who can do as much with the shots they get as she can. 

DeWanna Bonner, Connecticut Sun

Key stats: 2.2 win shares, 51.7% on 2-point shots (72nd percentile), 3.8 free-throw makes per game (91st percentile) 

Bonner doesn’t have one particular stat that makes your eyes pop out, rather she does everything well. The Sun forward is in the 90th percentile in points per 40 minutes, 61st in field-goal percentage (44.0%), 65th in rebounds per 40, and her physical nature causes opposing teams to foul her often. Add that with playing 32 minutes per game and Bonner’s value becomes very high. The only knock on her statistically is that she’s never been a very effective 3-point shooter. Bonner hasn’t produced an above average 3-point percentage since 2013, yet she takes more than five per game. 

*Technically Bonner played internationally for North Macedonia so she can't play for Team USA but since the team isn’t real she’s making the list anyway*

Nneka Ogwumike, Seattle Storm

Key stats: 2.1 win shares, 59.1% effective field-goal percentage (93rd percentile), 95th percentile points per play (1.12)

If anyone has a beef with not being selected to Team USA, it’s Ogwumike. The former MVP and WNBA champion is averaging 17.8 points per game on only 13.5 field-goal attempts. Her total points per game is down a shade because there are more players around her in Seattle that need the basketball in their hands – Ogwumike’s usage rate has dropped 5.8% this year – but her efficiency is headed back up toward her early years with the Sparks. Similarly her rebounds per game has dipped (still 89th percentile) likely because she’s playing alongside Ezi Magbegor. Still there are few better all-around players. 

*Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun

Key stats: 2.1 win shares, 95th percentile or better in assists and rebounds, 51.6% field-goal percentage (71st percentile)

Thomas is the engine that makes the Sun the WNBA’s top team. She produces an assist on a stunning 40.9% of teammates’ field goals, best in the league. You wouldn’t expect that from someone who also ranks in the 96th percentile in rebound percentage but that’s what makes Thomas so unique and unstoppable: She does everything. As a scorer she’s taking fewer shots than last year (down by 3.4 shots per game) but her effective field-goal percentage is up from the 35th percentile to 72nd. Thomas is having a better season than last year when she was in the MVP running. 

*Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty

Key stats: 2.0 win shares, 21.6 points per 40 minutes (87th percentile), 7.3 assists per 40 minutes (91st percentile)

The Liberty’s star is second among all guards in win shares because of her combination of scoring and playmaking. Even with a dip in 3-point percentage from last year she’s still sixth in effective field-goal percentage among guards who take at least 10 shots per game. Ionescu’s turnover rate is not ideal (3.6 per 40 minutes) but her assist-to-turnover ratio is in the 81st percentile. 

Dearica Hamby, Los Angeles Sparks

Key stats: 1.7 win shares, 19.0 points per game (career high), 55.1 effective field-goal percentage (80th percentile) 

On a young team, Hamby has turned into the go-to player and proven that she can score with the best of ‘em. Among high usage players who take at least 10 shots per game with at least 10 games played, she ranks sixth in effective field-goal percentage, a shade ahead of A’ja Wilson. Hamby is contributing as a playmaker with 3.6 assists per game and adding even more than her typical rebounding presence with a career-high 10.3 rebounds per 40 minutes. Sometimes it’s all about opportunity. 

Allisha Gray, Atlanta Dream

Key stats: 1.4 win shares, 55.3% effective field-goal percentage (82nd percentile), 45.8% 3-point percentage (98th percentile) 

While Gray has put up quality scoring totals with 15.8 points per game, there is an argument that her 66th percentile usage rate should increase in Atlanta. She has become one of the most dangerous 3-point shooters in the game and has increased her number of 3-point attempts to a career-high 6.1 per game. Gray’s shooting puts her on this list because there isn’t much on paper to suggest she’s above average defensively, but she is good at avoiding negative plays with a 95th percentile turnover rate (7.4%). 

It was a tough pick between Gray and Rhyne Howard because Howard’s win share mark is slightly higher (1.6) and the former No. 1 pick has a bigger impact on defense but she’s only shooting 39.9% (41st percentile). 

*Kahleah Copper, Phoenix Mercury

Key stats: 1.2 win shares, 51.9% effective field-goal percentage (74th percentile), 33.5% usage rate (No. 1 in the WNBA) 

Nobody has been asked to carry their team offensively more than Copper and she has been up to the task, hitting on 38.2% of her 3-point attempts (75th percentile) and getting to the line often with 5.6 free-throw attempts per game (97th percentile). The blazing fast guard averages 30.1 points per 40 minutes, tops in the WNBA and with an 81st percentile points per play number, she isn’t just doing it by taking a million shots. So why isn’t her win share stat as high as you’d expect? Her assist-to-turnover ratio is very low (10th percentile) and her defensive impact on paper is minimal (0.2 defensive win shares). But we have to use common sense here. Being asked to take that many shots while Brittney Griner was out and still coming away with high shooting percentages is extremely valuable.  

Maddy Siegrist, Dallas Wings

Key stats: 1.2 win shares, 52.9% field goal percentage (90th percentile), 1.09 points per play (93rd percentile)

There are players with higher win share marks defensively but last year’s No. 3 overall pick is ninth in the W in offensive win shares and her 55.8% effective field-goal percentage is fifth among players who take more than 10 attempts per game. Importantly, she almost never turns the ball over. Siegrist is sitting at 0.9 turnovers per 40 minutes (97th percentile). As far as all-around players, there are definitely players impacting the playmaking and defensive side more, but it cannot be ignored how well Siegrist is shooting the ball. Maybe she should have the ball in her hands more often than her present 39th percentile usage rate. 

Final notes

There were certainly some difficult omissions to the list, particularly Jackie Young, who still has a terrific assist-to-turnover ratio but her shooting efficiency is way down from last year. That can probably be attributed to playing without playmaker Chelsea Gray. We can also expect Kelsey Plum to bounce back with her shooting as the season goes along. Brittney Griner would have also been on the team easily if she had played more games. 

The volume scorers like Jewell Loyd, Rhyne Howard and Arike Ogunbowale had better overall win share stats than a player like Siegrist and we have to recognize that it’s harder to be an offensive driver than a passenger. At the same time, out of 34 players who take more than 10 shots per game, they rank 33rd (Loyd), 31st (Ogunbowale) and 18th (Howard) in effective field-goal percentage. We always have to try to contextualize the stats we’re working with but that’s difficult to justify on an all-data team. 

Had Chennedy Carter played more minutes (20.5), she would have gotten a nod. She’s 10th among high volume shooters in eFG%. After a tough start, Kelsey Mitchell is getting back on track and might have an argument for being on this team by the end of the year. 

Overall, a lot of the same players that are on Team USA are also on our Team USA all-analytics team. But we see that some players are thriving by the numbers without getting much attention. That’s what made it a fun exercise. The stats also reveal that, while Clark wasn’t a million miles behind her all-analytics team cohorts, she wasn’t that close either. Had the Olympics been in 2025 or 2026, maybe she would be at a point in her career where the numbers justified a selection, but her development path, like most rookies, hasn’t reached that point yet. Someday it probably will. 

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts! Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?