Can the Wings fix Ogunbowale's shooting woes?
It's been a tough shooting season for the Wings' star. Something needs to change, but what?
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What a fascinating season it has been so far. As we approach the All-Star and Olympic breaks, we have a big enough sample size of performance to analyze the results without the caveat that one or two games could completely change the narrative. So let’s have a look at one of the league’s stars who is struggling with shooting, some breakout players and the most interesting storylines for the second half….
An intervention for Arike
Earlier this year, I leaned toward having compassion for the Dallas Wings rather than being harshly critical of their sputtering start to the season. In 2023, when they won their first playoff series since moving to Dallas in 2016, Satou Sabally was a shining star and seemed to be the player they had been missing all those years. Sabally averaged 18.6 points, 4.4 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 36.1% from 3-point land. With her sidelined all season with an injury, life is a lot harder. It’s similar to the Minnesota Lynx sputtering without Napheesa Collier. On a team with so much talent it’s very hard to simply overcome the loss of a superstar.
Maddy Siegrist’s injury made things even worse. She was off to an excellent start to Year 2 with 14.6 points per game on an impressive 52.6% shooting. It’s tough to see an emerging player sidelined like that.
Still, there is no way the Wings should be this bad. They are the WNBA’s worst team in record (5-19) and point differential (-8.5) and rank in the bottom three in points per play for and against. Yet they have one of the league’s most high profile players in Arike Ogunbowale, a power forward who started on a championship team in Natasha Howard (who did miss some time earlier in the year), a top-five draft pick in Jacy Sheldon, one of the top producing centers in Teaira McCowan and lately a rejuvenated Odyssey Sims, who is scoring 16.4 points per game on 52.6% shooting.
I’m not saying they should be competing for a championship, but their roster features as much or more to work with than teams like Los Angeles, Washington and Chicago.
What the heck is going on? Well, Ogunbowale is having a historically bad shooting season. Out of all players who have taken at least 450 shots in a single season, only DeLisha Milton-Jones in 2007 has a worse field-goal percentage than Ogunbowale’s 35.6%. Of the 168 players that qualify, Ogunbowale has the 17th highest 3-point rate, which shades the stats a bit but even if you account for this by using eFG%, Ogunbowale is still 158th out of 168. Out of 36 current players who take more than 10 shots per game this year, her field-goal percentage is 36th and effective field-goal percentage is 33rd.
To put it in different terms: She has missed 297 shots this year and made 164. She has zero games over 50% from the field and five games where she shot under 30%.
As a fan of Allen Iverson growing up, once again I find myself wanting to give the volume shooters more credit. Who else is supposed to score? She has to take the most shots because she’s the best player. There are limitations to that theory when so many of her shots come from the least efficient areas of the floor. Ogunbowale has taken the second most mid-range shots in the league (134) and makes just 38.1% That’s above average for the league but speaks to the degree of difficulty of a large percentage of her shots. She has taken 76 more shots in the paint outside of the restricted area and made only 25.0%. Her 3-point percentage is hovering around average at 33.8% but it’s tough to justify taking the second most in the league (204) at that mark.
In a league where the best guards like Jackie Young, Kahleah Copper and Sabrina Ionescu are all over 50% when taking 2-point shots, it’s impossible to see how Dallas can compete for a championship someday if their offense continues to be the Arike mid-range show. Even if Sabally comes back and they add another high draft pick, this type of inefficiency will still make it difficult to win even with a strong roster.
Is there a solution? If this were a brand new thing, it might be excusable but she is only a 39.0% career shooter from the field (18th percentile) and boasts a career effective field-goal percentage of 46.2% (41st percentile). They have already changed coaches every two years since she was drafted in 2019. Would a player whose identity has always been as a high-difficulty shot maker be willing to adapt? Would she play differently if they had a playmaking point guard who could set her up rather than having a high percentage of shots off the dribble?
Dallas needs to have an answer to whether her problem with efficiency is fixable under different circumstances as they go into the future, otherwise they will keep changing coaches and players around her and keep getting the same results.
Breakout players
The Most Improved Player race is going to be tough this year. Here’s seven players who have broken out in 2024:
Dearica Hamby, Los Angeles
Key stat: 19.4 points per game is a career high, next best season was 13.0
Sometimes you wonder what good role players might do if they were given the chance to play the star role. Well, Hamby proves that some could thrive. With a young team in Los Angeles, the veteran forward is not only producing high point totals but doing so at a very high efficiency rate, the fifth best effective field- goal percentage of players who take more than 10 shot attempts per game.
Jordan Horston, Seattle
Key stat: 2-point shooting percentage has increased from 38.9% to 55.1%
The ninth overall draft pick in 2023, Horston’s confidence seems to have taken a big leap in Year 2. She’s making 69.5% of her shots inside five feet, up from 46.8% last year. She is also a key defender for the Storm, ranking at the top of the league in steals per 40 mins (2.9) and in the 95th percentile of defensive rating (91.0).
Maddy Siegrist, Dallas
Key stat: From 8.2 minutes per game to 34.1. Scoring 14.6 points per game on 52.3% shooting
A hand injury has kept Siegrist to only 13 games but she was playing like an offensive force before she got hurt, making 58.1% of her 2-point shots, including over 50% from 5-feet to the 3-point line. If she ups her 3-point shooting (29.0%) a little, Siegrist could turn into a key player for Dallas for a long time.
Chennedy Carter, Chicago
Key stat: Averages 16.4 points per game. Missed 2023 and only scored 8.9 points per game in 2022
Averaging 17.4 points per game as a rookie, it seemed Carter was en route to something special, but after she had a falling out in Atlanta and then failed to click in Los Angeles it appeared she might end up out of the league. A second life in Chicago has given Carter an opportunity to be an offensive centerpiece again and she has thrived. Jackie Young is the only guard who shoots more than 10 times per game that ranks higher than Carter in 2-point field-goal percentage.
DiJonai Carrington, Connecticut
Key stat: Career high 29.4 minutes per game, 89th percentile defensive win shares
Mostly a rotational player in the past, Carrington has taken the starting role and run with it. While she hasn’t been the most efficient shooter, (39.9% field-goal percentage), the former Stanford and Baylor standout draws the toughest guard assignments on the WNBA’s No. 1 defense in opponent points per game.
Tyasha Harris, Connecticut
Key stat: Career high 30.4 minutes per game, 35.1% 3-point percentage
Harris had 11 career starts prior to this year and never played 20-plus minutes per game, but she has earned the trust of Stephanie White and become a key secondary scorer with 11.0 points and 3.1 assists per game.
Bridget Carleton, Minnesota
Key stat: Career high 29.4 minutes per game, 45.1% 3-point percentage
After flashing in the Wubble in 2020, Carleton was largely relegated to a bench role until this season. As a starter she has become one of the best 3-point shooters in the WNBA and often draws difficult defensive assignments on one of the league’s best defensive teams.
Most intriguing things during the second half of the season
During the Olympic break we are going to have lots of time to stew over what we saw in the first half of the season – hey, that might even be my next column! – but for now here are a few things that I’m intrigued by going into the second half:
Will the Aces still be king?
Chelsea Gray’s return has jolted the Aces back to life after stumbling at times during her absence. They have won nine of their last 10 games and behind A’ja Wilson’s legendary season Vegas now ranks No. 1 in scoring. Will they keep rolling in the second half and end the year as the league’s scariest team despite stronger starts by New York and Connecticut?
Is Seattle strong enough to keep up?
The Storm have come on strong lately with seven wins in their last 10 games. Their chemistry seems to be coming together following a roster revamp in the offseason and they now rank third in point differential (+6.7). But the Storm are last in 3-point shooting percentage and rank eighth overall in field-goal percentage. Can they shoot well enough to play with the best of the best?
Napheesa Collier’s health
On the night they won the Commissioner’s Cup, it seemed clear that the Lynx were the best team in the WNBA. Since their MVP candidate Napheesa Collier went down with a foot injury they have not been the same, most recently getting blown out in Seattle and losing at home to Indiana. If Phee can return at 100% the Lynx should continue to be a top-notch contender with their terrific shooting, ball movement and defense. However, without her in the lineup they are a completely different team (as anyone would be without a top-five player in the league).
Brick for Bueckers
Right now Washington would have two of the top four picks because they own Atlanta’s selection and the Sparks and Wings would also be in the lottery for Paige Bueckers. Earlier this year I wrote that Los Angeles seemed like the best spot for Bueckers because Washington has a lot of random parts, but that might have been too harsh considering they could end up drafting twice in the top four and have seen some progress from their roster. Maybe Bueckers could be the answer to the Ogunbowale shooting percentage problem if she ends up in Dallas.
If Rhyne Howard returns from her ankle injury, the battle between Atlanta and Chicago to stay out of the lottery could be something to watch. Chicago would be better off in the lottery as they are in rebuild mode around Angel Reese and Co., whereas Atlanta is fighting to avoid the embarrassment of giving Washington their selection. It will likely come down to five teams, four lottery spots and one potentially all-time great prospect. The drama!
Can Indiana keep it going?
Their start to the season, fueled by a difficult schedule and tough adjustment to a player who needs the ball all the time, caused a lot of consternation among the Fever’s new large following. Lately they have gotten rolling with their stars Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell coming to life. Is that a product of some good breaks, like playing Phoenix and Minnesota without their stars? Or have they really figured out their offense to the point where they can be dangerous? With four top-two draft picks, you would lean toward the latter. Are they really ready to compete with the best of the best? We’re going to find out in the second half.
What is Phoenix?
The Mercury are 12-12 and it feels like the 12 wins have been stellar and the 12 losses have been putrid. Their numbers suggest they are a classic middling team but they are fifth in effective field-goal percentage and third in points per play, which makes you wonder if they can play together as a complete unit for a few weeks if they might end up being a lot more dangerous than they appear on paper.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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At some point, someone has to show Arike the numbers and make her realize she takes too many bad shots. If people have done that, and she still continues to jack up mid-range prayers, maybe she should spend some more time on the bench studying math.
Worst thing in the world is for Paige to end up with Latrica Trammel and Arike. If the Wings get the 1st pick, if I was Paige I would definitely use the extra year of eligibility at UConn. Sparks or Mystics are better fits for Paige. Arike is one dimensional - yes, she can hit a clutch with someone in her face, yes she can make the elite pass from time to time, yes she can steal the call with her quicks hand. In all her years of the W, I think the next screen she sets for another player will be her 1st. If she's not taking the shot, she stands 30 feet out. Trammel is an awful coach - tough with injuries but all teams have them. Lou Lopez-Senechal rarely plays, not in the rotation - she was a 20 pt scorer with UConn. As long as LLS rides the bench, I have no sympathy for this team.