Dallas Wings Check-in: Midseason Takeaways
Where are the Dallas Wings at heading into the second half?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
The All-Star Break has come and gone, with WNBA basketball set to tip back off tonight. Meanwhile, the Dallas Wings get their second half underway on Wednesday night with a trip to New York to face the Liberty. Following that one, the Wings head back to Arlington for a three-game home stand.
As we prepare for the stretch run of the season, let’s look at some first-half takeaways for the Wings.
The Wings look better than they have since moving to Dallas
The last time the Dallas Wings finished over .500, they weren’t the Dallas Wings yet, as they were 18-16 in 2015 when they were still the Tulsa Shock. Since then, the team’s best result was last year’s .500 finish.
Through 20 games, the Wings are currently two games over .500 with an 11-9 record, and the numbers suggest this is the best Dallas team ever. Highest net rating (3.6) of the Dallas era. Highest net points per game (2.8). Best defensive rating (97.5).
The fact that Dallas did this despite only having Teaira McCowan for half the games so far really speaks to how well the team’s “big three” of Natasha Howard, Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally have played.
Ogunbowale is averaging 21.6 points per game, the highest mark of her career. She’s still struggling with her efficiency, as she’s knocking down 39.3% of her total attempts and 29.8% of her threes, but her impact goes beyond the traditional idea of what’s a “good” or “bad” shot. She’s someone with a knack for the moment, someone who isn’t afraid to shoot when she needs to. As cliche as this might sound, Arike’s a baller, and she goes out there and balls. Sure, that sometimes manifests in poor shooting performances, but the Wings have finally built a team around her that fits her style of play.
Of course, part of why the Wings can win with her doing her thing is that Sabally has blossomed into a star—more on that in a minute—and Howard has created a strong foundation on both ends. And while Ogunbowale’s shooting more than ever, she’s also passing more, as she’s averaging a career-high 4.8 assists per game.
Satou Sabally is a star
I’m not sure how hot the following take is at this point. If I said it in the preseason, I would have likely gotten some sideways looks, but at this point, there’s an argument to be made that Satou Sabally is the Wings’ best player.
Sabally is averaging 17.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game; those numbers rank 15th, seventh and 10th in the league, respectively. And after shooting just 23.3% from deep last season, her 3-point percentage this year is up to a more respectable 34.0%. She also ranks ninth in the league in win shares with 4.2, which leads the team.
Her defensive impact is why I consider her the Wings’ best player. She’s an active defender who does a great job poking the ball away from offensive players, with her 2.1% steal rate ranking 21st in the league. Her ability to switch helps the Wings defense thrive, especially when at full strength.
In the 191 minutes that the Wings have had their full frontcourt—Sabally, plus Howard and McCowan—the team has a 90.58 defensive rating. McCowan’s ability to anchor the paint while Howard and Sabally fly around on defense has made that just an absolutely devastating unit.
Bench depth remains a concern
My internet was out all weekend. When the tech came on Monday to fix it, he tore a bunch of old equipment out and replaced it with a new, sleeker box, one that he said should work better than before. The only issue was that a few really important, fragile wires were now exposed. He put some padding around them to protect them and closed the wall back up, but he said if they get bent, they could knock the internet out again.
Those wires made me think of the Wings—specifically, the depth concerns. There’s a certain fragility to the way this team is built. Three of the top nine players in minutes per game this season play for the Wings. Ogunbowale’s 37.2 minutes per game lead the league. Dallas simply isn’t a team that relies on its bench. For example, the Wings won by 40 against the Lynx in the final game before the All-Star break, yet Sabally, Howard and Ogunbowale all played 32 or more minutes. Howard was on the floor to close the game, and Ogunbowale played over half of the fourth quarter.
So far, this reliance on the starters has worked out. None of the team’s “big three” have missed any time with injuries.
But what if they do? It’s a hypothetical question, but it’s also not entirely hypothetical. Sabally, for example, has never played a full WNBA season. Howard missed time in 2020 and 2021. If an injury happens, can Dallas withstand it?
Let’s look at some on/off data, courtesy of PBP Stats, to see how every combination of the three players has done.
Some of those minutes are so low that there’s no real point talking about the net rating of those lineups. I’m much more interested in just how few minutes the team has played without its stars. Forty-two minutes with just one of the three on the floor, and 10 minutes with all three on the bench. That’s just not much time at all. If the team suffers an injury to any of the three, they’re going to have a lot to figure out.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.