Double-Digit Seeds To Watch In The Tournament
Here are five double-digit seeds worth paying attention to in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
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The 68-team field is set and the NCAA Tournament is nearly upon us. There’s a lot of really well-known teams in this year’s field, from Dawn Staley’s dynasty at South Carolina to Caitlin Clark’s fame at Iowa, but there are also a lot of great teams and stories that don’t get a lot of attention.
Today, I’m looking at five teams seeded in the double digits that college basketball fans should watch this year in the NCAA Tournament. This doesn’t mean these teams are necessarily set to record upset victories, but there are compelling reasons to care about them, even if their run ends in the first round.
Fairfield - Albany 1 - 13 Seed
It was a dream season for Fairfield, but that dream almost became a nightmare on Saturday against Niagara in the MAAC title game. The Stags trailed for much of the contest, including by double digits at the half. They eventually managed to force overtime, where they pulled away to a 70-62 victory. It completed a year that saw the Stags win 30 games against Division I opponents, losing just once (versus Vanderbilt).
I don’t want to sugarcoat the strength of schedule concerns here. The Stags were 322nd in opponent average win percentage and, per CBB Analytics, played exactly one game against a Quad 1 or Quad 2 team, which was the aforementioned Vanderbilt loss. Twenty-four of their 31 opponents were Quad 4.
Still, you can only beat who’s in front of you, and Fairfield did that, night after night. They rank fifth in defensive rating and 13th in net rating and have been one of the most efficient teams in the country as well, ranking third in 2-point field-goal percentage and 12th in effective field-goal percentage. Freshman Meghan Anderson scores the ball well at multiple levels and also averaged 1.4 blocks per game.
Fairfield plays Indiana in the first round.
Norfolk State - Portland 4 - 15 Seed
One of the biggest shocks of the offseason was when Diamond Johnson transferred from NC State to Norfolk State. You just don’t see very good players from power conferences transfer to HBCUs very often, if at all. Johnson averaged 19.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 3.9 steals per game for a Spartans team that went 26-5.
Norfolk State played three power conference opponents this season and lost all three, with two of those by 28 or more points. That’s a good reason to doubt the Spartans as a viable upset pick.
Still, this is a fun basketball team. Obviously, opponent strength plays into this, but the Spartans are second in Division I in defensive rating and rank fourth in steals per game. They probably won’t beat Stanford, but they can make it a long day for the Cardinal.
Norfolk State plays Stanford in the first round.
Drake - Albany 2 - 12 Seed
Drake has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country for a long time now. This season, the Bulldogs won a school-record 29 games, but winning a bunch isn’t new to the team, which has won 18 or more games in 10 consecutive seasons.
This is the third season for Allison Pohlman as the team’s head coach. She faced a tough task, replacing Jennie Baranczyk, who led the Bulldogs to three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, but she’s picked up right where the previous regime left off.
Drake’s struggled defensively this season, ranking 167th in defensive rating. That could pose issues for the Bulldogs in the tournament, but this offense is so entertaining. The team ranks eighth in scoring offense and 26th in pace. The duo of Katie Dinnebier and Grace Berg combine to average 34.9 points per game, while Anna Miller has been a strong third option.
Dinnebier, a finalist for the Becky Hammon Mid-Major Player of the Year award, really is one of the most enjoyable players to watch in college basketball. She ranks fourth in Division I in assists and 40th in steals. She’s one of just two players in the country to average 17 points, six assists, and two steals or more per game, joining Marshall’s Abby Beeman.
Drake plays Colorado in the first round.
California Baptist - Albany 2 - 15 Seed
Back in the 2020-21 season, California Baptist went undefeated but was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament because the program was transitioning to Division I. They ended up in the WNIT, beating New Mexico and San Francisco before losing to eventual champion Rice in the quarterfinals. That Lancers team was led by Caitlyn Harper, an elite scorer who also provided a lot on the defensive end as well. Harper’s currently at Purdue.
This year’s team looks a lot different, but it’s fulfilled a goal that previous Lancers teams weren’t allowed to fulfill – an NCAA Tournament berth. CBU went 28-3 against Division I opponents, losing to Louisiana Tech and then dropping a pair of conference games, both in overtime. The team’s best win was on the road over a 20-win San Diego State team.
Chloe Webb blossomed into a star this season, averaging 21.1 points per game along with 8.1 rebounds and 2.5 steals. She was one of just two players in Division I to average 20-plus points, eight-plus rebounds and two-plus steals per game.
California Baptist plays UCLA in the first round.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Portland 3 - 16 Seed
Let’s get this out of the way right now: there isn’t a universe where I expect to see Texas A&M-Corpus Christi upset USC in the first round. Not happening. USC’s just too good of a team to lose to a Southland program in a 1/16 matchup.
However, I do think this Islanders team is compelling. It’s the first time this program has ever made the NCAA Tournament, though it looked like the team had a great shot to win the Southland Tournament back in 2020 when COVID canceled it. Since then, the Islanders have been competitive, but they haven’t reached the same heights. Head coach Royce Chadwick took Stephen F. Austin to seven NCAA Tournament appearances during his tenure there, but after leaving for Marshall and failing to make the tourney over his 11 seasons, he ended up in Corpus, where he’s currently in his 12th season. Chadwick finally getting back to the big dance for the first time since 2001 is a feel-good story.
The biggest story here, though, is that Alecia Westbrook gets to play in March Madness. Westbrook was a freshman on that team in 2020, but she’s now a fifth-year senior who has won a Southland Player of the Year award and has been on the All-Conference First Team three times. She’s arguably the best player in program history and came up huge in the conference final against Lamar, scoring 17 points on a perfect 6-for-6 shooting.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi plays USC in the first round.
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