Fever Pitch - Part 1
Recapping the Indiana Fever in the Catchings-Stanley era
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Since their last Finals appearance in 2015, the Indiana Fever have failed to register a winning season. There are numerous factors people can target as the reason for their plight, but everyone can agree that the franchise has not lived up to previous successes. The trough of this downturn was the brief period under general manager Tamika Catchings and head coach Marianne Stanley.
As discussed in detail below, Indiana made several unsuccessful efforts to bolster the roster during the Catchings-Stanley era. Fever fans are hoping that 2022 will be remembered as the year the organization reversed course. Indiana has a new general manager in Lin Dunn, a promising corps of young talent, and a new (interim) coach in Carlos Knox. But how did we get to this point? What went wrong during the Catchings-Stanley era? And why might 2022 be the beginning of the Fever’s resurgence?
2020
The Fever finished the 2019 season at 13-21, which was actually an improvement over 2018 when they finished 6-28. Indiana struggled defensively during its 2019 campaign, ranking 10th in opponent points per game, 11th in steals & blocks per game, and last in opponent assists & turnovers per game. On offense, the Fever ranked in the bottom half of the league in points per game (seventh) and offensive rating (eighth). Offensive rating is usually measured as points scored per 100 possessions. Also, the Fever were not adept at getting teammates open looks, as they were 10th in assists per game as a team.
In November 2019, the Fever hired Marianne Stanley as the new head coach. A former WNBA Coach of the Year, Stanley was at the time an assistant coach with the Mystics under Mike Thibault. Washington would go on to win the WNBA championship that year. So, having someone with Stanley’s resume would be considered a huge pickup for the Fever. Another decision made by Indiana’s top brass was to have Tamika Catchings serve as the team’s general manager. Catchings was previously Indiana’s vice president of basketball operations.
The first orders of business for the Fever in 2020 were to re-sign Tiffany Mitchell and Betnijah Laney to multi-year contracts. In the weeks leading up to the draft, the Fever also signed Bernadett Hatar, Julie Allemand, and Jessica January. So far, none of the transactions made at this point could be deemed “out of the ordinary.”
Mitchell was a key role player for the Fever in the 2019 season, whose scoring and field-goal percentage improved over the previous year
Laney showed improvement from her prior season in Connecticut, although she shot 36% from the field. She would go from starting 0 games with the Sun to 27 with the Fever. Betnijah was also sixth in total steals for 2019, showing promise on the defensive end (Keep in mind, Indiana as a team was eleventh in steals per game).
At 6 feet 10 inches tall, Hatar had the size to alter and block shots. With some WNBA experience and development, she could have helped improve the Fever’s shot-blocking ability.
Allemand averaged 5 assists per game in both Euroleague Women and the French league, while also making 47.8% of her treys across the two competitions. Her ability to facilitate could have amended Indiana’s problem in getting teammates better looks (boosting their assist numbers).
In her last season at DePaul, January averaged 15.0 points and 6.5 assists, showing potential to be a scorer and, similar to Allemand, an effective facilitator.
On April 17, Indiana selected Lauren Cox from Baylor with the third overall pick in the WNBA Draft. Cox averaged 12.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 2.7 blocks during her senior season at Baylor. With size (6 feet 4 inches tall) and an ability to block shots and get steals, Cox could have helped revamp Indiana’s struggling defense. On the offensive end, Cox showed an ability to occasionally stretch the floor. Many mock drafts actually had Cox going third overall at this slot also, so this wasn’t a “reach” by Indiana. If her production at Baylor had carried over into the W, Cox could have been a nice complement to Teaira McCowan.
Speaking of which, the Fever picked the Mississippi State center with their third overall pick in 2019. At a towering 6 feet 7 inches tall, McCowan showed an immediate ability to rebound (second in the league with 9.0 rebounds per game in her rookie season), and block shots (averaged 1.3 blocks - good for 10th-best in the W). However, McCowan was primarily located around the paint area on offense and did not show an ability to stretch the floor, attempting no three-point shots in her rookie year and only one three-point shot in her entire college career.
With their second and third-round picks in the 2020 WNBA Draft, the Fever picked up Iowa’s Kathleen Doyle and James Madison’s Kamiah Smalls, respectively. Indiana signed all of its picks to rookie contracts. Again, nothing out of the ordinary here.
Although the 2020 season would be postponed until July 25 (and ultimately shortened due to the global outbreak of COVID-19), the Fever’s front office was not resting. By mid-May, 2017 second-round pick Erica McCall, 2019 third-round pick Paris Kea, Smalls and January would all be waived by Indiana (although Smalls would return to Indiana via a hardship contract during the season). Indiana suspended Hatar’s contract for the season after she suffered an injury with her European team. At this stage, the Fever were essentially streamlining the roster, removing pieces that they lacked roster space for and felt would not give them a chance to compete.
But, on June 17, the Catchings-led Fever made a decision that would immediately come back to haunt the franchise, waiving Laney after re-signing her in February. Laney would ultimately land with the Atlanta Dream. In 2020, she registered career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and minutes per game on her way to Most Improved Player honors and a spot on the All-Defensive First Team. In the Fever’s defense, Laney’s breakout to some seemingly came out of nowhere, as she became a much more confident all-around player immediately.
While Laney thrived in the Wubble, the Fever languished, going 6-16. Indiana ranked last in opponent points per game, defensive rating, and turnovers forced per game. There is no question that if Indiana still had Laney playing at the level she was playing, it would have curtailed the Fever’s poor defensive efforts. Another factor contributing to the Fever’s poor output was their inability to get production from Cox. Unlike certain other draft picks that year (Satou Sabally, Chennedy Carter, and Crystal Dangerfield), Cox was unable to make an immediate impact. She averaged only 3.6 points and 3.3 rebounds in 13.1 minutes per game. Also the player efficiency was not there, as she was in the bottom 50% of the league in that measure. With Cox's limited minutes and production, along with the absence of Hatar, the rebounding would be picked up by McCowan, Candice Dupree, Natalie Achonwa, and Allemand. Speaking of Allemand, she was one of the team’s few bright spots, averaging 8.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and a team-leading 5.8 assists per contest. Another bright spot was Kelsey Mitchell, who led Indiana in scoring with 17.9 points per outing.
We've talked about Betnijah Laney's defensive ability, but how about her prowess on the offensive end? If the Fever had been able to retain her, the duo of Laney and Mitchell would no doubt have put pressure on opposing defenses. With teams’ scouting focused on Laney and Mitchell’s scoring, combined with Allemand’s ability to facilitate, opportunities could have developed for other members of the Fever and Indiana’s assist numbers could have been significantly improved. There is one retort that some might have here: Would Laney have developed similarly if Indiana did not waive her? You can argue that Laney would’ve gotten some key minutes in the rotation and touches. In the absence of another dynamic player like Laney, Dupree and Tiffany Mitchell had high usage rates. If Laney was able to show flashes of her game as seen in Atlanta, she would have been thrust into a bigger role based on need, allowing Dupree and Tiffany Mitchell to operate in a supporting role.
After what should have been a season in which necessary gaps were filled, it was now back to the drawing board for Catchings. Due to a subpar 2019 and 2020 season, the Fever would again be in contention for a top pick. The team also had cap space to try and acquire pieces to put the franchise into contention. In order to wrap up the season and prepare for the 2021 offseason, Indiana exercised their fourth-year team options for McCowan and Kennedy Burke.
2021
The Fever hit the ground running in February 2021, making moves that would reshape the roster:
February 1st: Signed Jantel Lavender to a multi-year deal
February 2nd: Signed Danielle Robinson to a multi-year deal
February 15th: Traded their 2022 second-round draft pick to Minnesota for Odyssey Sims, negotiating rights to Temi Fagbenle, and Minnesota’s 2022 first and third-round draft picks. Sims would be waived upon completion of the trade, leaving the Fever with a $111,520 cap hit; this is an example of what often gets called a “salary dump”
February 15th: Traded their 14th overall pick in the 2021 draft to Las Vegas for Lindsay Allen and the 24th overall pick
February 16th: Signed Jessica Breland
With the exception of Allen, the incoming players were older veterans. Entering 2021, Breland, Lavender, and Robinson had played a combined 25 seasons in the league. What occurs here is crucial, because you see a big shift in Catchings’ strategy. Instead of building primarily through youth and the draft, the Fever were looking to bring in established veterans with playoff experience. This becomes more evident when you look at what Indiana’s coaching staff and front office said about the moves:
Catchings on the Lavender signing: “Her experience on championship-caliber teams and the energy that she portrays both on and off the floor will be vital to our team. She will be huge in our evolvement to a Championship team.”
Catchings on the Robinson signing: “As a player with multiple All-Star game and playoff appearances, she is exactly what we are looking to add as a positive asset to blend with our current roster.”
Catchings on the trade for Allen: “Lindsay will add to our championship culture, as well as a winning mentality to a position that requires tremendous leadership.”
Coach Stanley on the Breland signing: “She is an excellent rebounder, shot blocker and mid-range scorer. Her experience and versatility will enable her to impact the game at both ends of the floor.”
A recurring theme from the statements is “championship-caliber” and “winning”. In order to solidify their “championship-caliber” core for the foreseeable future, the Fever extended the current deal of their leading scorer in 2020, Kelsey Mitchell, until 2024.
This brings us to draft night.
The Fever had the fourth overall selection. With their pick, Indiana shocked the basketball world and selected West Virginia’s Kysre Gondrezick. In our 2021 WNBA Mock Draft, Gondrezick was not projected to be selected in the first round. ESPN’s Mechelle Voepel had Gondrezick firmly outside of the first round in her projections (29th pick/third round). CBS Sports’ first-round projections also did not have Gondrezick going in the first round. That is not to say that Gondrezick was a subpar player coming out of college. In fact, she averaged 19.5 points per game in her final season with the Mountaineers while dishing out 4.5 assists per contest. It was where she was selected and by whom that was the surprise.
Typically, whoever is selected early in the first round is generally thought of as a player who the team expects to contribute right away. But, in Indiana’s case, they already had multiple guards on the roster. Robinson was recently signed, the team had traded a draft pick to acquire Allen, Allemand had shown promise in the point guard slot, Kelsey Mitchell was going to have the ball in her hands a lot, and the team also had Tiffany Mitchell on the roster. Where exactly would Gondrezick fit in with this guard-heavy Fever squad? In 2020 when they selected Cox, it seemed as if the Fever filled a specific need. This pick seemed like a high-risk/high-reward play, and Indiana’s front office would look as if they were ahead of the curve if the gamble paid off.
On draft night, the Fever also acquired from Seattle the 11th overall pick, Aaliyah Wilson, in exchange for Kennedy Burke. After the first round, they selected Unique Thompson, Trinity Baptiste, Chelsey Perry, Florencia Chagas, and Maya Caldwell. However, by opening day, Indiana had waived Caldwell, Thompson, Baptiste and Kathleen Doyle (their second-round pick from 2020), and Chagas was “suspended” for the year after deciding to sit out, the Argentinian playmaking guard being a draft-and-stash selection. The Fever also suspended Allemand due to her overseas commitments, and the team wanting her back refreshed in 2022.
The Fever fared even worse in 2021 than it did in its lackluster 2020 campaign, compiling a 6-26 record. This would be the second-worst season winning percentage in Fever history. None of the team’s “championship-caliber” acquisitions compiled a season worthy of Catchings and Stanley’s remarks, or their share of the salary cap. None reached double-digits in scoring or rebounding. Injuries didn’t explain these subpar performances. Although Breland, Lavender, and Robinson missed time, they each saw action in at least 75% or more of the season’s games. Also, with the exception of Allen, they each averaged at least 20 minutes per game, showing they were used in the rotation.
Joining the cadre of underwhelming performers were the Fever draft picks. Cox’s 2021 numbers were actually worse than her rookie season. In June as the season’s salary guarantee date was approaching, the Fever decided to waive Cox despite drafting her the previous season. Instead of “sticking it out” to see if Cox could improve before the Fever’s deadline to exercise the fourth-year team option, the franchise decided to part ways.
Gondrezick played well below expectations, managing just 1.9 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per contest. Her last game of the season was July 11, after which she took time off for personal reasons. This, combined with the Fever’s decision to waive Cox, resulted in Indiana not having its top 2020 and 2021 first-round draft picks with over one-third of the season left. Their third-round pick, Chelsey Perry, was waived in May, just days after the start of the season. Ironically enough, Indiana brought Perry back on a rest-of-season contract the day after Cox was waived. Since they went through the process of waiving her and re-signing her to the rest-of-season contract, Perry was neither bound by the rookie scale nor still under contract for future years.
Since going 13-21 in 2019, the Fever had hired a new coach, hired a new general manager, and made a barrage of roster moves. Despite this, the Fever won fewer games in 2020 and 2021 combined than in 2019. They ranked last in defensive rating in both 2020 and 2021, and the offense was nearly as poor. Whereas the 2019 team entered the offseason just needing to fill a few gaps, a shot blocker/interior defender and a pass-first ball-handler, now Indiana had issues across the board to be addressed:
How could they work towards improving the offense?
How could they work towards improving the defense?
Would the rotation be composed of primarily older veterans or younger talent?
This concludes the first part of Fever Pitch, in which the Fever in the Catchings-Stanley era was recapped. In Part 2, I will break down the Lin Dunn-Carlos Knox era, and why 2022 could be a turning point for the franchise. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Nice breakdown ... but what's remained a mystery, and likely will, is why Catchings thought Laney wasn't a WNBA player? And why she thought Kyrse Grondezick was a WNBA player? And why she expected all those "championship" veterans to perform better than their careers showed they would?
In short, how could the talent evaluation been so consistently bad? Everyone misses once in a while but Catchings beat the odds by being wrong every single time. How is that possible?
We'll never know, I'm sure, unless Catchings wants to sit down and explain her bad decisions in detail. But bottom line, those decisions may have killed the franchise, which could be Bay Area-bound in the fall.